According to a study written up in the New York Times (subscription required) this week, it isn't lousy management's frequent trading that's responsible for the poor performance of mutual funds. Nope, it's the investors who redeem their shares and force the funds to sell even if they don't want to. The study found that "liquidity-motivated" trades perform poorly compared to trades based on fundamentals.

Mark Hulbert, the author of the piece, suggests that investing in closed-end funds may be a way to avoid this problem, because they generally don't face redemption. In an exchange-traded fund, an investor who wants to sell shares just sells them to another investor. It's just like how selling shares of McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD) would have no impact on the operations of the company.

And yet there's still a problem: Regardless of what any study says, mutual funds simply cannot, on average, outperform passively managed indexes. It's a zero-sum game. Before expenses, the average fund's performance can only be average. After expenses, the average fund is considerably below average. The fact that ETFs are almost always passively managed (rebalanced/adjusted once a year generally) is a large contributor to their outperformance. The fact that they are immune to redemptions by panic-stricken shareholders at precisely the wrong time adds to their value.

The more I study it, the more obvious I think it becomes: ETFs are probably better than traditional mutual funds for most investors.

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Templeton Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE: EMF), a closed-end fund, is the top speculative idea from Daniel Frishberg, BizRadio host and editor of TheMoneyMan.com.

He says, "Right now, shoppers are buying, foreigners are spending, Asia and Latin America are growing, the world is awash in money, interest rates are low and jobs are plentiful -- so any sell-off early in 2007 could mark a real opportunity to join a stock market that's about to blast off.

"Templeton Emerging Market covers the Pacific and Asia, excluding Japan. Stocks of China, Taiwan, South Korea, Turkey are the main holdings. In each of the last couple of years, it has issued a very large dividend, and many advisors have suggested getting in, in advance, to capture the dividend.

"In reality, the stock declined by the exact amount of the dividend, as should have been expected, and while EMF is recovering nicely, we see it as even more attractive post-dividend. You get the gain without the immediate tax.