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Option Update: Volatility flat for heavy earth movers; CAT, DE, TEX ...

Terex (NYSE: TEX) is recently trading at $42.50 in pre-open trading, below its close of $47.32. TEX lowered 2008 EPS view to $6.35-$6.65 from $6.85-$7.15. TEX overall option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Agco (NYSE: AG), global manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment, closed at $56.10. AG overall option implied volatility of 49 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Deere (NYSE: DE) closed at $66.53. DE overall option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

CNH Global (NYSE: CNH), an agricultural and construction equipment manufacturer, closed at $35.17. CNH overall option implied volatility of 54 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) closed at $67.73. CAT October option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst downgrades: SUN, RYAAY, HBC, MPP, PCU, CNH and HBC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Ryanair and HSBC Holdings were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Underweight from Neutral citing expected margin pressure due to high leverage to sweet crude. Goldman also downgraded shares of Sunoco to Neutral from Buy.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) to Sell from Hold as they believe the European airlines sector will trade well below book value until the companies deal with higher oil prices.
  • UBS cut HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the potential for higher losses at the company's household unit and weak performance at its U.S. bank.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Broadpoint lowered MTS Medication (NYSE: MPP) to Neutral from Strong Buy.
  • HSBC cut Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) to Neutral from Overweight.
  • Goldman downgraded CNH Global (NYSE: CNH) to Neutral from Buy and PetroChina (PTR) to Sell from Buy.

CNH Global (CNH) makes a strong 'Case' for its products

With the markets in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio. CNH [Case New Holland] Global (NYSE: CNH) is worth an evaluation.

CNH is the second biggest manufacturer of agricultural equipment behind Deere (NYSE: DE), and also is a major manufacturer of construction equipment.

Like Deere, CNH is riding the global agricultural wave: emerging market development is increasing demand for agricultural products as food and as energy. (Example: corn for ethanol.)

Further, CNH has established brands in Case and New Holland, a reliable distribution network, and demonstrated marketing proficiency. Further, continued, strong demand for agriculture and construction equipment in Latin America represents a solid revenue tailwind.

The downside points? Above-average debt and a slowing domestic (Europe) market for Amsterdam-based CNH are on analysts' radar screens, but those are not large enough to offset the company's solid operational prospects, moving forward.

(Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.)

Technically, CNH's chart looks good. The stock's only serious breach of its 50-day moving average occurred during the August 2007 market sell-off, and CNH has been above its 200-day moving average for about a year.

Stock Analysis: CNH Global is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. With a p/e of 30, CNH is selling for an above-average price, hence investors should wait for a pull-back to $58-$60 before purchasing shares, if the market presents the opportunity. Sell / Stop Loss: $39.

Deere (DE): Well-positioned amid the global agri-boom

John Deere (NYSE: DE) logoWith the markets in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio. Deere and Co. (NYSE: DE) is worth an evaluation.

Deere is well-positioned to take advantage of several long-term, secular trends. Chief among these are: strong international agricultural and international construction/building markets, and an expanding consumer equipment sales segment.

Solid, enduring growth in international agricultural markets is the standout fundamental here, with the business line's revenue growth expected to offset slumps in equipment sales for the correcting U.S. housing market. Other positives: DE's costs remain under control, its balance is strong, and agriculture equipment market conditions suggest the company has modest pricing power. Increased use of renewable fuels are likely to add to demand for DE's equipment, assuming at least one renewable fuel gains traction as a practical, affordable alternative to petroleum-based energy.

Continue reading Deere (DE): Well-positioned amid the global agri-boom

CNH Global: Want that combine harvester with or without AC?

Ever wonder what became of agricultural equipment names like Case, Ford, International Harvester and New Holland? They are all part of the heritage of one of the biggest heavy equipment makers around.

CNH Global NV (NYSE: CNH) is a world class manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment, ranking second to Deere (NYSE: DE) in the farm category and third to Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and Komatsu in the building line. Products include wide varieties of tractors, combine harvesters, seeding and planting equipment, sprayers, excavators, graders, bulldozers, backhoe loaders and skid steer loaders. A financial services unit assists clients with the purchase, or lease of equipment. The firm, a majority-owned subsidiary of Fiat S.p.A. (NYSE: FIA), is supported by about 11,500 dealers in 160 countries.

Continue reading CNH Global: Want that combine harvester with or without AC?

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DJIA+203.5210,226.94
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S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:11 AM

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