Clorox (NYSE: CLX) greeted investors on Friday with a sparkling clean earnings report for the fiscal first quarter. According to the press release, sales rose 8% once the effect of the Burt's Bees acquisition was eliminated, and earnings per share came in at $0.91. Analysts were looking for $0.84 per share.
That's an awesome beat. For the most part, shareholders don't have much to complain about. Operational cash flow did decrease, but you can once again factor in Burt's Bees and its effect on working capital. I always like to see cash flow increase, but since this is the first quarter, and since Clorox is backed by a whole bunch of powerful brands, I can let it go for now. Going beyond the numbers, I think the big thing to think about when considering Clorox is that it is, like colleagues Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), a pretty strong name in supermarket aisles. Who hasn't purchased some of the company's bleach or trash bags at one time or another? I know I've been attracted to Clorox's brand equity.
On a forward-looking basis, Clorox can be looked upon as a long-term dividend play. Right now, the stock has a decent yield and is comfortably away from the 52-week low. Of course, we've been hearing a lot lately about how currency rates may start to give global companies a hard time. That's something to consider with Clorox. My feeling is that long-term thinkers shouldn't sweat it too much. One thing about the management here is they seem to be very willing to aggressively protect their brand equity against no-name brand competition and to figure out exactly what marketing messages will work with consumers. That's my top priority when it comes to consumer-products businesses and retail. I always ask myself the following question: Does management get that it's all about the branding/marketing? From what I've read, I think Clorox gets it.
No, I don't think the stock is simply going to rise from here. But I do think it could be one of the better defensive plays out there (assuming there still is such a thing as defensive play these days, that is).
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL - option chain) shares are trading higher today after the company reported a third-quarter profit of $499.9 million, or 94 cents per share. CL's adjusted profit of 99 cents per share beat analysts' estimates by a penny. CL got a boost in the quarter from higher sales combined with price increases. Today's earnings demonstrate that in fact CL is still the kind of company you can afford to keep in your portfolio during rough economic times. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CL. If you are looking to get some downside protection but still cash in on the nice dividend CL pays, then a covered call might be a good idea.
CL opened this morning at $64.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $62.57 and a high of $65.50. As of 12:25, CL is trading at $63.58, up $3.58 (5.9%). The chart for CL looks bullish and S&P gives CL a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a February covered call at the $60 level. A covered call is an options position that combines the purchase of stock with the sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.3% return in just three and a half months as long as CL is above $60 at February expiration. Colgate-Palmolive would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
CL has not been below our break-even point around $56 except for a few days out of the past year. CL is expected to pay a dividend in late January.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UPS.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), which competes with Clorox (NYSE: CLX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), will be reporting earnings for the fiscal first quarter on Wednesday. The data will be scrutinized carefully to see if P&G might be a viable idea in these tumultuous times. Of course, P&G is a great long-term investment for a core portfolio of buy-and-hold stocks, but there will be plenty of investors on Wall Street looking to gauge the company's potential as a defensive trade.
According to Earnings.com, P&G should earn about $0.98 per share. At least, that's the goal that analysts have set for management. If P&G hits that number, then it will have achieved a modest growth rate of around 6%. I expect P&G to beat expectations by a penny or two, given its recent history. The company usually is pretty good about that. Also, free cash flow should be more than acceptable to investors. Management watches cash-flow generation carefully (as it should), and traditionally makes that a priority. Naturally, it wants to balance the needs of long-term growth along with the need to deliver a proper flow of cash. So far, things have worked out over time on that count.
The big question now is: What about the future outlook? What the company says about this subject will probably end up driving the stock's reaction. The global marketplace is headed for a slowdown. Consumers are tightening their belts. Will they reach for generic brands and ignore the brand equity of the products in P&G's vast portfolio? P&G is going to have become aggressive about promoting its stuff. The company will want to make sure that people still feel their getting value for their dollar. That dollar, after all, goes farther with a generic equivalent. From my viewpoint, I think there is still value to be had from name brands. Even during a recession, I'll buy better quality items. Just yesterday I happened to pick up one of P&G's family members -- Bounty paper towels. It was on sale, but I'm sure there was a generic lurking around the corner that was cheaper. I didn't even bother looking for it. Sure, I do buy some generics, but I don't necessarily become obsessed with them.
P&G wasn't that far from the 52-week low at Monday's close. I wouldn't be setting up an earnings trade ahead of it because of all the uncertainty, but holders of the stock should fare reasonably well come the middle of the week (P&G did fine the last time).
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Consumer-products company Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) was the latest company to see its stock placed on the chopping block. That's been happening a lot these days. The shares tumbled over 7% on Wednesday and closed at $57.22. While 7% is bad enough, it actually feels worse to say that the stock lost $4.45 per share on the session. When it comes to businesses that sell popular brands to consumers, shedding $4 per share is just awful. Especially for a stock that should be a defensive name, a proverbial port in the even more proverbial storm.
Kimberly-Clark posted an adjusted profit of $1.02 per share Wednesday morning, which was a penny better than analyst expectations. The article also states that the company is suffering from a shifting exchange-rate environment and competition from private-label products. That latter point is really going to be a problem for businesses such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Clorox (NYSE: CLX), and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). At some point, many will probably reach for generic items as opposed to name-brand counterparts.
This doesn't mean that companies who use big brands as their main ammunition for long-term growth should be avoided. Indeed, a company that can figure out how to strike a prosperous balance between the premium it can charge for its name products and the willingness of consumers to pay it will oftentimes do well in tough markets. Kraft (NYSE: KFT) had success with this during the previous quarter. Price increases were able to power results. Kimberly-Clark is going to be severely challenged in terms of maintaining margins and keeping up a proper level of marketing spending. Everyone's going after the consumer's wallet these days, so breaking out from the pack is a requisite undertaking.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported its Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday. The numbers looked very good to me (save for one, which I'll get to). P&G was up over 3% on Tuesday. Granted, the Dow saw one heck of a rally yesterday, but even so, P&G deserved a bid just due to its blue-chip corporate performance.
Revenues for the quarter increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per diluted share jumped over 19% to $0.80. For the year, revenues increased 9% and adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 15% to $3.50. As I stated in my earnings preview from the other day, Wall Street was looking for adjusted earnings to be around $0.78 per share. So P&G beat by two pennies.
Of course, the earnings beat is nice, but cash flow is even nicer. In fact, management likes to evaluate itself by comparing its free cash flow to net earnings. P&G would like the so-called "free cash flow productivity" metric to equal at least 90%. Well, shareholders need not worry, since productivity in these terms was 96% for the quarter and 106% for the fiscal year. Free cash flow for the year expanded by 21%, and it was more than enough to power P&G's great dividend.
The company that brings you Ivory Soap, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), is set to divulge its Q4 numbers on Tuesday. So, what should shareholders expect from this consumer-products behemoth?
Well, I don't think it's going to be much of a surprise. Data at Earnings.com suggest that analysts believe P&G will do $0.78 per share in terms of the bottom line. Management actually expects around that number, as well. A recent piece I wrote about P&G reiterating its guidance shows that between $0.76 and $.78 per share is the range being looked at. So, I think we'll see the top end of the range reported tomorrow. P&G has a solid recent history of slightly beating expectations. Perhaps there will be a beat, but it most likely won't be by more than a penny.
This will represent pretty decent performance in a market wracked by horrible inflationary pressures. Going back to Earnings.com, the previous year's bottom-line number was $0.67 per share, so P&G will be looking at good double-digit growth. The top line, by the way, should expand at least 8%. Volume data will also be important to look at so investors can get a handle on how successfully the company is cultivating price increases. P&G has a significant advantage over competitors since its line of products is so well-known and trusted. I mean, when it comes to things like Ivory Soap, many consumers will refuse to alter their brand loyalties even if they have to pay more at the pump. Yes, sales of generic products obviously do have a challenging impact, but as I found with Kraft's (NYSE: KFT) recent earnings report, brand equity is a selective advantage in the Darwinian landscape of supermarket shelves. It's also useful for protecting margins.
"Any further market weakness creates creates another opportunity to acquire some outstanding stocks," suggests Kelley Wright, noted for his focus on blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.
In his Investment Quality Trends newsletter, he looks at the benefits of keeping a long-term focus, the value of dividend districutions to an investor's long-term returns, and his current "timely ten" picks for conservative investor.
"The cash dividend for the Dow is $322.40. One year ago the dividend was $284.06. Amidst all the turmoil in the markets and the economy something must be going right with the Dow 30 companies because the dividend is ever climbing.
"Dividends, as we all know, can only come from the reality of earnings; you can't pay what you don't have. The dividend yield on the Dow is currently 2.66%, which represents an 11% downside to a 3.0% yield and the historically repetitive area of Undervalue.
"Will the Average make it down to that level? No one knows but that isn't the point. At current levels the upside is FAR greater, particularly in many of the stocks in our Undervalued area.
It wasn't a super quarter for Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB). The consumer-products company only met expectations set for it by Wall Street. But, sometimes, that's pretty good, given the conditions the business is working in. As a matter of fact, I see that Brent Archer penned a recent post discussing how inflation is hurting Kimberly-Clark (and just about every other entity, as well). At that time, the company projected a $900 million increase in terms of inflationary pressures, double management's previous estimate. So, looking through this current earnings release, I can't help but feel that things could have been worse.
For the second quarter, net sales rose 11% to $5 billion. Earnings on an adjusted basis dropped a penny compared to the year-ago period, coming in at $1.03 per share. Like I said, that matched expectations, according to Briefing.com. Guidance for the future also appears to be in-line. Kimberly-Clark seems, to me at least, to be holding its own during a difficult time. And here's a couple cash-flow data points that should appeal to many investors. Operating cash flow for the quarter was up 16% to $753 million. Prudent management of the company's working capital benefited this metric. And on a six-month basis, cash from operations also increased, albeit not by much. That sum rose a little under 2% to almost $1.2 billion. I like to see good cash-flow numbers like that, especially for dividend-paying concerns.
And speaking of dividends, Kimberly-Clark's stock is trading at a great yield, over 4%. Of course, that means that investors buying today will need a lot of patience. You'll be paid to wait, but if you're into fast capital-appreciation rates, you probably won't get it here, not in this trading environment. Inflation will continue to be a concern for it, as well as consumer-product colleagues such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Energizer (NYSE: ENR).
This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.
If you like to save money on gas and live near a Wal-Mart in the Southeast and Midwest, chances are you are filling up these days at stations operated by Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE: MUR), which is headquartered in the small town of El Dorado, Arkansas.
Those Murphy USA gas stations, located in parking lots of Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT), are just a small part of Murphy's many energy-related businesses. Murphy Oil is a giant, publicly-traded oil and natural gas exploration and production company with operations as far afield as Malaysia and Ecuador. Much of its U.S. drilling and refining is done off the shores of Louisiana, and some of that equipment was damaged during Hurricane Katrina. Sales in 2007 were more than $18 billion and the stock is up 60% in the past year. The company was recently ranked No. 134 in the Fortune 500 (to put that in perspective, Google is ranked 150 and Nike 153).
Corporate headquarters to all this (as well as a timber company that was spun off from Murphy in 1996), is El Dorado, population of 20,000. A boom town in the 1920s when oil was discovered, El Dorado has a colorful history and currently boasts summertime reenactments of a Wild West style gun fight on the courthouse steps, as well as a historic "haunted" theater. The town participated in the federal "Mainstreet" program, which provides grants for restoring historic downtowns, suggesting that the downtown was once in rough shape, but has since been prettied up.
Many of us would be happy to benefit from a quiet retirement without facing concerns of losing all of our hard earned money. Fortune 40 gives us a helping hand by suggesting some big names to invest in that could offer us the results that we are looking for.
One such company is Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), whose earnings surged 35% during its last quarter, helped by its famous anti-inflammatory drug Humira and HIV treatment Kaletra. Looking ahead to the company's performance, CEO Miles White is planing to keep his main attention on its medical devices unit which is seen as a key element against strong competition.
Fortune 40 also looks at beverage maker The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), which benefits from strong international gains able to beat recent weakness in U.S. In addition, it looks like the company's acquisition of Glacéau and its VitaminWater brand offer it a good support to outperform on the market.
I love coupons; who doesn't? They are, arguably, one of the most important marketing tools used by companies such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and General Mills (NYSE: GIS). I also love coupon distribution on the web, so I'm hoping a new technology reported on by BusinessWeek really takes off.
A company called Coupons, Inc. has developed a system dubbed Brandcaster. It essentially follows Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) model of monetization. Depending on where you are on the web and what you are looking at, the Brandcaster will determine if a coupon may be applicable to you. It will then try to get you to access the coupon and print it up. Web sites who use the application will be given a cut of revenues generated from successful coupon printings. So, speaking hypothetically, if I'm on a site that's dedicated to video games, maybe this Brandcaster thing will someday tell me that I can print up a coupon allowing me to get $5 off a new software title.
If this is promoted properly, and if the value to consumer companies can be adequately communicated, then I think Coupons, Inc. has a hit on its hands. Like I say, people love coupons, and I think they are more likely to act on printing out a coupon then they are to, say, buy a product immediately online through a banner ad. I see this kind of advertising as being more effective over the long-term than other kinds of ads.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
As far as toothpaste goes, I was raised on Crest. My entire childhood, it was always Crest. Except when I spent the night at Grandma's and Grandpa's. They had Colgate. What a treat! Here are some facts about both...
Colgate toothpaste is the flagship product of Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL), an international operation in more than 200 countries. Total sales were almost $13.8 billion in 2007, the highest ever for the company, and it's notable that 75% of the sales were made outside the United States. Net income was up 28% to $1.7 billion for the year. Toothpaste is one of many personal care products that the company makes, including toothbrushes, soaps, and deodorants. The oral care products accounted for 40% of Colgate's sales in 2007.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) reported Q1 results on Wednesday. By now, you know the drill when it comes to consumer-products companies -- weak-dollar-helped-and-commodity-costs-did-not-help. I gotta say, though, that Colgate-Palmolive showed that vigilance in terms of costs can have a positive impact, and that a business does not have to be defined by inflation.
Net sales exploded to the upside by more than 15% (again, currency effects). Net income likewise charged higher, rising 17% to 90 cents per share on an adjusted basis. I know -- superlatives such as "exploded" and "charged higher" might seem a bit hyper here, but it's always cool when a consumer-products company hits those double-digit increases. Colgate-Palmolive, like Clorox (NYSE: CLX) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), leverages its stable of brands to drive growth in cash flows (Procter & Gamble, by the way, also recently reported quarterly results). This worked like a charm, since cash flow from operations during the past three-month period increased 17%. Way to go, management. Margins, however, were pressured, as can be expected, and they will continue to be pressured in the near future.
The earnings release mentioned the flagship Colgate toothpaste product -- I am a user of the brand, and in fact, I bought a new variety earlier this week. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- the supermarket is full of investing ideas, and Colgate-Palmolive is one of them. The company had a great quarter, it beat expectations according to Briefing.com -- albeit by the usual suspect, namely the "proverbial penny" -- and it seems solid enough. A potential core holding, Colgate-Palmolive should do well over the coming year. Yesterday's 6.7% drop in the price of the shares could have been seen as a buying opportunity for patient, long-term investors, but I'll concede that the stock could languish for a little while.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) reported for the first quarter today. Net sales increased almost 10% to $4.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per share increased 5% to $1.08. That's a rather small jump, granted, but you know something, it was enough to keep the stock in the green (at the time of this writing, at least) instead of in the red on a day when the major market averages -- and just about all of the stocks in my personal portfolios -- are bathing in the evil crimson color of doom. And according to Briefing.com, Kimberly-Clark played the beat-the-expectations game and won by the proverbial penny! Shareholders should be pleased.
A non-pleasing item to be found in the release centers on cash from operations -- it decreased by about $100 million to $426 million due to changes in working capital. That doesn't concern me so much right now, though, since Kimberly-Clark will probably do well over the coming years in terms of cash generation. The company, by the way, has been repurchasing stock, so management seems pleased with the shares as a potential investment idea.
Kimberly-Clark, which is a consumer-products business in the league of entities such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Energizer (NYSE: ENR), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Unilever (NYSE: UL), could be a value right now based on its P/E ratio and dividend yield. Out of the stocks mentioned here, I like P&G the best, but I do respect Kimberly-Clark -- in fact, it was mentioned recently in an article by Steven Halpern that centered on an analyst's picks for quality and yield.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.
WD-40 (NASDAQ: WDFC) issued its Q2 earnings report yesterday after the close of the market trading session -- and it wasn't full of great news. The top line was essentially flat as net sales dipped 0.5% to almost $79 million. Earnings came in at $0.51 per diluted share versus $0.52 per diluted share in the year-ago time frame.
Another negative aspect to the report was the statement of cash flows. WD-40 took in a lot less in terms of net cash from operations this time around, as changes in working capital and other items affected the flow. There's also a lot less cash on the balance sheet. And, sorry to say shareholders, but WD-40 missed analyst expectations by the proverbial penny. Investors shouldn't always be concerned with Wall Street expectations, but here's something that shareholders will be concerned with: the company lowered its earnings outlook. Management says that revenue growth will probably be somewhere between 4% and 8% as opposed to the originally expected range of between 7% and 10% -- any hopes for double-digit appreciation are now history. Net income per share is now expected to fall in a range between $1.80 and $1.90 versus a previous range of $1.83 and $1.93.
Well, now, what do we make of all this? It was a disappointing report, no question. But WD-40 has some decent brands in its portfolio, including the flagship lubricant, although its brand collection isn't necessarily on par with others, such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Clorox (NYSE: CLX). WD-40 isn't the current best play in the consumer-goods department at the moment, in my humble opinion. Some will point out that the stock's yield is attractive right now at 3%, but its dividend history isn't as good as others in terms of quarterly hikes. I'm not very bullish on WD-40; maybe I will be at a later date.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.