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Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Christoph Scherbaum, editor of the German edition of Personal Finance, who says German investors are cautious, but optimistic about their market.

Q. Christoph, some experts predict the beginning of a prolonged slowdown that will push consumer price inflation in Germany to as low as 2% next June. What do you think?

A. Consumer prices are not really a problem. August inflation was less than 4% and is estimated at 3% until year-end. The delayed effects of rising commodity prices will have a steeper decline. In addition, second-round effects through higher wage developments are now more visible. Therefore, the European Central Bank-despite poor economic data-will wait for a reassessment of its inflation target for 2010 until the second half of 2009

Q. To what extent do you think the US's financial worries are extending to German financial institutions?

A. It's a difficult question, but we have no big problem with our banks. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck recently stated: "Although this financial crisis undoubtedly is the biggest economic risk for the German economy, I think the potential impact on us-after inquiries and interviews with the Bundesbank president-to be limited". He also reaffirmed the intent of a balanced federal budget in 2011.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany

Newspaper wrap-up: NBC Universal and consortium to acquire The Weather Channel

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
WEB SITES:

Head of Commerzbank says financial woes not over

The head of German banking giant Commerzbank (OTC: CRZBY) says that there are more rough seas ahead for the banking industry, particularly in the US. "Bankers did not adequately understand these (mortgage) investments and relied too heavily on high-grade credit ratings from agencies that helped put together the products, then rated them," Klaus-Peter Müller told The New York Times. "This ignorance of the risks extended to the top echelons of the banks."

Not a very pleasant way to talk about your peers, but probably accurate nonetheless.

Commerzbank has already admitted to $1.8 billion in subprime exposure, but Müller fears that US banks are being selective in their disclosures in the hopes that some of the problems will go away. He is also concerned that US banks used the opinions of ratings agencies to make investment decisions instead of doing their own risk management.

In general, Müller is probably right. If his hint about US banks being slow in disclosing problems is true, he may feel that there is another shoe to drop in the form of more big write-offs before the end of the year.

That would put much more pressure on banking stocks.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Analyst upgrades: UBS, CRZBY, TRMA, OPMR and MCCC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Commerzbank , Trico Marine Services, Optimal Group and Mediacom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the risk/reward is now attractive.
  • Commerzbank AG (OTC: CRZBY) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, as they believe the company has eliminated much of the uncertainty on asset quality.
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Trico Marine Services Inc (NASDAQ: TRMA) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $46 from $40 to reflect the growth potential brought on by the company's purchase of Active Subsea ASA.
  • B. Riley raised its rating on Optimal Group Inc (NASDAQ: OPMR) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's proven management team, acquisition of WowWee and strong balance sheet.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Mediacom Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: MCCC) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback, as they now think the stock is oversold. Citigroup thinks Mediacom will generate free cash in 2008 and they like the pace of buybacks.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Flash: Europe banking shares collapse on mortgage problem

A government bail-out of UK mortgage bank Northern Rock sent Europe banking shares sharply lower and set similar trouble for US bank shares. Northern Rock was down 27% on news that the Bank of England had to supply it emergency funding.

Barclays was off 3.2% Commerzbank fell almost 5%. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale were of about 3.5%.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:40 AM

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