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Why do we have a weak dollar?

The stock market is rallying. Commodities are on a tear. Yet the dollar is falling. Why?

There are several reasons for the drop in the dollar, but the most obvious and simple answer is that investors around the world are selling dollars and using the money to buy stocks and commodities, particularly oil and gold.

Last week India announced that it had bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF.) At an average of say $1000.00 per ounce, the transaction amounted to about $7 trillion dollars. Chances are that India sold dollars from their sovereign fund to buy the gold.

Continue reading Why do we have a weak dollar?

Long dated oil contracts surge to almost $100 per barrel

Sometimes you can get an indication of market trend by looking at the prices of futures contracts in the forward months. Oil futures contracts trade out as far a 2017. Oil futures contracts for the year 2017 are trading a just a shade under $100 per barrel, while spot crude was trading at $77.65 per barrel (spot prices are cash prices.)

The International Energy Agency has said that last year's spike of oil prices to $147 per barrel was a contributing factor in tipping the world into recession. It damaged trade balances, reduced household income and dampened growth, putting pressure on inflation and interest rates.

Continue reading Long dated oil contracts surge to almost $100 per barrel

Will the Fed's loose money policy be successful?

Wednesday, the Fed announced that interest rates would remain at zero to 0.25% for at least the next six months.

The Fed statement read as follows: "weak conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The only change in the Fed's policy was a tweak in the amount of corporate debt that the Fed intends to buy.

Continue reading Will the Fed's loose money policy be successful?

Is it time to sell wheat?

Global wheat output rose 12% to a record 682.3 million metric tons in the year through May.

According to Emmanuel Jayet of Agricultural Commodities Research at Societe Generale in Paris, wheat prices are expected to drop 13% by the end of December. The last big drop was during 2002 when prices fell by 19%.

Stockpiles of wheat will jump 12% by next May. Investors predict a further decline due to an overabundance. On October 30, there were 6.265 put options at $4.50 per bushel, more than any other grain contract ( a put option is an option to sell.)

Continue reading Is it time to sell wheat?

Options action in Alcoa (AA) as stock bounces higher

Aloca (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season a couple of weeks ago, and option players are now bulled up and looking slightly longer-term. The near-the-money December 13 calls are active today, with nearly 8,000 contracts trading versus open interest of just 997.

One block of 4,450 contracts changed hands around 10:00 a.m., trading near the ask price at 69 cents per contract ($445,000 for the entire block). It is likely these were bought to open.

Also active in AA are the January 14 calls, where nearly 33,000 contracts have traded on open interest of 18,000. A couple of large blocks changed hands before 11:00 a.m., trading at the ask price as well, also indicative of buying.

While this isn't necessarily excessive volume for AA, it is notable that the shares have jumped nearly 8% today on little news, and this has spurred some call-buying activity right out of the gate. As the U.S. dollar has been gaining ground over the past few days, commodities have weakened. Today's stock and call-buying activity could be a sign that some investors are calling for a short-term bottom in the commodity group.

Beth works for The Options News Network (www.ONN.tv), which provides daily stock and options commentary. The above comments are not intended as trading advice.

US dollar rallies; stocks and commodities fall sharply

Wow! What a difference a few hours makes. At the beginning of trading today stocks and commodities were steady. Then as the morning wore on, the US dollar strengthened and it all broke loose. Let's look at the numbers: (as of 1:29 EDT)

Continue reading US dollar rallies; stocks and commodities fall sharply

Gold soars as dollar continues to weaken

gold pricesThe U.S. dollar continued to decline today, and has helped push gold prices up sharply in today's action.

The dollar has been very weak lately, and as more concern mounts of the dollar's strength more investors are rushing into the precious metal, which traded up as high as $1,069.70 today, and is currently up $1.70 an ounce to $1,059.20.

Continue reading Gold soars as dollar continues to weaken

General Mills posts strong Q1 numbers

General Mills First Quarter EarningsThis morning food maker General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) reported its fiscal first numbers. The company posted better than expected earnings and lifted its forward guidance.

As I noted yesterday in the earnings preview, analysts had been expecting General Mills to post earnings of $1.03 per share, but the company surprised to the upside by reporting $1.25 per share. Excluding certain items, the company would have seen earnings of $1.28 per share.

Continue reading General Mills posts strong Q1 numbers

Why are sugar prices shooting higher?

Like oil, sugar is an international commodity. Unlike oil, sugar is an agricultural crop dependent on the weather. This year has seen droughts in some parts of the world and wetter than normal weather in other parts of the world where sugar is grown. Both extremes affect the growth of sugar cane.

Here are some reports from various sugar-growing countries:

  • India is both the largest exporter and importer of sugar. This year India will be an importer of sugar. India's inventories will fall 50% to 4.54 million tons, equal to three months consumption. Reports from farmers indicate that plants are only one foot high compared with normal growth of five feet. Rainfall was 64% below normal in the growing regions. To fill the gap, the Indian government is extending duty free imports.

Continue reading Why are sugar prices shooting higher?

Roubini sees higher commodity prices

What are Roubini's new predictions? This time the noted economist is future casting the price of commodities. He is looking for the global economy to move toward growth in the later part of 2009 into 2010.

When the world moves into greater production, the need for raw materials rises. Roubini, sees commodity prices moving up during this expansion stage.

Already China's $585 billion stimulus package has spurred lending and sent share prices skyrocketing. China's economic growth surged 7.9% from a year earlier and is well on the way to meeting its target of 8% growth this year. China's purchasing manager's index stood at 53.3 in July, up from 53.2 in June. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the the economy.

Continue reading Roubini sees higher commodity prices

Under the radar: The future belongs to companies with efficient products

Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more subtle but are just as potent, and these often slip "under the radar."

Case in point: Water and energy use is trending lower, and a good example is the City of New York. Water consumption has been dropping on per capita (or per person) basis, basically, for 25 years.

Continue reading Under the radar: The future belongs to companies with efficient products

Closing Bell: Wishy-Washy... Earnings season prelude? (AMGN, FDO, FSLR, GE, YRCW)

A late day rally based on imbalance orders and on the Treasury's PPIP winners made a wishy-washy day even that more confusing. The market started out with a slight upside bid, but it never could find its footing. This is probably due to continued earnings jitters ahead of earnings season.

Continued oil inventory data and continued worries about regulating the commodities markets were based around how much speculators can really control.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,184.68 +21.08 (0.26%)
S&P 500 880.29 -0.74 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,749.09 +2.92 (0.17%)

Top Upgrades and Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: Wishy-Washy... Earnings season prelude? (AMGN, FDO, FSLR, GE, YRCW)

Why are corn traders screaming "get me out or this market"?

Suddenly, like lightening, the corn market drops to limit down. "Limit down" is the maximum the corn market can drop in one day. For corn it is 30 cents or ($1500.00 (each penny equals $50.00.) December corn traded at $3.6725 per bushel down the limit.

Why did this happen? Berry and Rees reported that today the Agriculture Department released its report on corn plantings which forecast 87.035 million acres up from 85.982 million acres planted in 2008. More acres mean more corn and more corn means lower prices.

Continue reading Why are corn traders screaming "get me out or this market"?

Baltic Dry plunges: Captain, she's going down!

On June 23, the CEO of the world's largest dry bulk cargo shipping company warned that he actually sees a decline in shipping volumes. That's very bad news for the bullish global trade argument and a smack to the head of the Green Shoots Brigade. Dry bulk cargo is how the world ships coal, steel, and other raw materials. The Baltic Dry Index -- the daily average of prices paid to ship these materials -- has long been a key leading indicator of industrial production. And after a spectacular triple digit run, the Baltic Dry Index rolled over this week and headed steeply downwards.

Continue reading Baltic Dry plunges: Captain, she's going down!

Serious Money: Anglo American - Xstrata merger?

It was reported on Sunday, June 21, that Anglo-Swiss mining company Xstrata has proposed a merger of equals to the board of Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK), hoping to create a new, more competitive mining giant. Rumors have been milling about for a while.

Together, Anglo American and Xstrata would have a market capitalization of approximately $68 billion, (AAUK's $35 billion + XTA.L's $33 billion) and be larger than Rio Tinto plc ADS (NYSE: RTP), which ended the trading day last Friday with a capitalization hovering over $42 billion.

Continue reading Serious Money: Anglo American - Xstrata merger?

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 03:31 AM

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