Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) wants to calm the nerves of jittery Wall Street. According to this item, the Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) warning has spooked investors worried about inflation (I'm one of them). So, P&G wanted to let everyone know that things will be all right at the maker of Ivory soap and Pringles potato chips (or is that crisps?).

P&G is confident that it can deliver top-line growth of between 8% and 10% when it next reports. Also, management believes that earnings per share will still be somewhere between $0.76 and $0.78. You know it's a bad market when an announcement indicating that the status quo will merely be maintained as opposed to being exceeded is enough to keep a stock slightly in the green by a few pennies, as opposed to down nearly 5% (which is how the stocks of P&G and Kimberly-Clark are trading, respectively, as of this writing).

Of course, the fact that P&G came out and supported its guidance doesn't mean that inflation shouldn't be feared. We're still in bad shape in this regard, the bears haven't gone away, and I don't think either P&G or Kimberly-Clark are trading buys. I like both for the longer-term, and in terms of Kimberly-Clark, the yield is attractive. However, in terms of buy-and-hold-and-forget, you can't beat the safe reliability of P&G, whose product portfolio is one of the best out there in the consumer sector. I would imagine that P&G's brand equity is helping it navigate this vicious commodity storm, but don't think it can't weaken in coming quarters.

Disclosure: I don't own any stock mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Kraft Foods, Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is in a bit of a pickle. As the following article makes clear, the company knows it has to raise prices. There's just no choice in the matter. Commodity input costs are on the rise, and something has to give. But the problem is, consumers not only have to pay more for Kraft foodstuffs, they have to ante up more of the green stuff for everything else too -- fuel for the car, heating oil for the home, you know the drill.

If you're a Kraft shareholder, should this concern you? What about if you own other consumer-oriented stocks based on the supermarket shelves that are feeling the inflationary pinch, companies such as General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) -- which reported earnings today -- or Kellogg Company (NYSE: K), or maybe even beverage businesses like The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) or PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP)? Well, it should, of course. Inflation is no fun, and with the price of oil hitting new highs recently, a trend that seems very much intact, consumers will be strapped. In fact, Kraft is now trying to make up for lower volumes by raising the cost of its goods; this isn't ideal, perhaps, but Rick Searer, who is the president of Kraft North America, brings up an almost humorous point -- "consumers have to eat." I have yet to meet one that doesn't, come to think of it!

But I think the consumer companies are relatively sophisticated with their data-analysis protocols and are, perhaps, a bit more nimble in terms of deducing what shoppers want to buy for purposes of stocking their pantries. At least, I would hope they are -- we've been hearing about better data-mining techniques for years. Kraft obviously will promote a wait-and-see attitude in terms of the consumer and her reaction to the recession, but I don't think shareholders should be overly worried at this point. A lot of these defensive names have international exposure and stand to benefit from the falling dollar, for one thing. For another, we all have to eat! And since the defensive names generally have dividend yields, they tend to be safer bets during a recession; don't think they can't fall, though, because they can. One just hopes they don't fall as much as, say, your typical financial entity or a broad market index.

Disclosure: I own shares of Coca-Cola; positions can change at any time.

Oil's at a record peak, transportation costs are going higher, and grocery prices are increasing. But there's a great white hope for fans of frozen yogurt, Gorgonzola, and chocolate malts, as dairy prices are supposed to stay relatively steady or even fall in 2008.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture noted that while milk prices jumped 12% in 2007, they will be under control this year thanks to a 1.1% increase in the cow population and a 1.7% boost in the average output per cow. Overall milk production is expected to rise 2.7% in 2008, faster than the 2.1% growth seen last year.

Declines in wholesale milk prices trickle down to the consumer and could shave off prices on the retail end for bottled milk. Ephraim Liebtag, an economist with the USDA's Economic Research Service, told CNN/Money that the overall price tag for dairy goods (including cheese, butter, and yogurt) is expected to rise 3% this year, slower than last year's 7.5% hike in overall dairy products. This modest advance would be relatively good news for American consumers, who are budgeting for a 4% hike in food purchased in the stores or at restaurants.

A man's gotta eat, but there's no such thing as a free lunch, what's a guy to do? According to a piece in today's Wall Street Journal, food prices have advanced by a sizable margin of late, jumping more than they have in 17 years. And its not just the price of caviar and fine cheeses. Basic staples such as eggs, milk, and bread have surged as fuel costs crimp suppliers and global demand for meat and milk grow.

Here are some specifics:

• The average retail price of a dozen eggs went up 38% to $1.86 in November 2007 from a year earlier.
• The average cost for a gallon of milk rose 30% to $3.90.
• An average head of Iceburg lettuce rose 16.5% to 99 cents a pound .
• The average loaf of whole-wheat bread hit $2.67, up 12% on a year-over-year basis.
• Overall, food prices as indicated by the consumer price index jumped 5.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual basis through November, compared with a 2.4% increase through the entirety of 2006.

Naturally, the change in food costs is impacting restaurants as well. Sandy Levine of New York's Carnegie Deli told the Journal that "Between weather conditions, fuel charges, and labor, everything's going up." The venerable deli is subsequently hiking its prices on several menu items this year. Burger King Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BKC) lifted prices by 1% in July; McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) nudged its menu prices by about 3.5% during the past year and will continue to do so in an effort to keep pace with rising dairy and poultry costs.

So what can the average consumer do? Get more creative with ingredients. Learn to love generic and store-brand names instead of their pricier rivals. Don't let things go to waste! Look for farmer's markets that eliminate the middle man (cutting down on shipping expenses). And dine in more than carrying out (home cooking is costing more, but is still cheaper than take out... and often better for you). What tricks for eating well while watching one's budget would you suggest?

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.