CommodityPrices posts
FeedPosted Jul 29th 2008 3:30PM by Jonathan Berr (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, Consumer Experience, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Recession
Benningan's, the casual dining chain where I had many bad dates, and Steak and Ale, a chain I never visited, have filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, underscoring how cash-strapped diners are not finding deals like unlimited breadsticks all that tempting.
The two chains, which are owned by billionaire John Kluge, have been in financial hot water for months, according to
The Wall Street Journal. The paper reports that the chains were so broke that they did not have enough money to pay their employees for the rest of the week.
"Metromedia Restaurant Group (Kluge's company) earlier this year violated several terms of a lending agreement with GE Capital Solutions," the
Journal reports. "It had been in negotiations with lenders for months to stave off the filing, while closing some stores and looking for a buyer, said two people involved in the matter."
Rising labor costs and soaring prices for food are killing casual dining chains.
Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASDAQ:
CAKE) recently reported disappointing second quarter results, which featured the biggest drop in same store sales in the
dining chain's history. Last year,
activist investor Nelson Peltz acquired a 14% interest in the company.
Brinker International Inc. (NYSE:
EAT), owner of Chilli's Bar and Grill, and IHOP parent
DineEquity Inc. (NYSE:
DIN) are both down by double digits this year.
There is no hope for a turnaround in these companies anytime soon. Much like diners in these establishments, investors in these stocks are in for a world of indigestion.
Posted Jun 24th 2008 9:47AM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Press Releases, Coca-Cola (KO), Kellogg Co (K), General Mills (GIS)
General Mills (NYSE: GIS), arch competitor of fellow cereal seller Kellogg (NYSE: K), posted some good news for shareholders on Monday. In an otherwise gloomy day that saw the Dow remain below the 12,000 level and inflationary pressures still exerting a hold over the market, General Mills proved that dividends are at least one island of safety in a sea of trouble.
The company indicated that it will now pay an annual dividend of $1.72 per share. Previously, the annual dividend was set at $1.57 per share. This is a nice example of double-digit appreciation of approximately 10%. Based on Monday's closing price, General Mills' stock now yields a hearty 2.7%.
As a long-term idea, General Mills is certainly one of the best. As I observed with Kellogg, you can put this one on perpetual dollar-cost-averaging. However, with the stock in 52-week-high territory, and with prices for commodities, especially corn, still exerting a negative effect on businesses, I'd be a bit cautious about entering just now. Is it possible one might get General Mills closer to a 3% yield? I can't predict the short-term future, but my gut says that a pullback is inevitable. Even with cool dividend increases, stocks can return to the low end of a 52-week range at any point. Just look at Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and the recent pressure its stock has been under. And Coke is a dividend stalwart. Nevertheless, I am bullish on General Mills' future. Just watch out for commodity trends, and perhaps remain patient for better prices on the shares.
Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.
Posted Mar 13th 2008 3:05PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), General Electric (GE), Amazon.com (AMZN), Diageo plc (DEO), Tiffany and Co (TIF), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Reliance Steel and Aluminum (RS), Under Armour'A' (UA), Economic Data, Anglo American (AAUKY), Federal Reserve, Raytheon Company (RTN), Bunge Ltd. (BG), Recession
The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.
While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.
The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke's calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.
Continue reading Serious Money: The falling dollar creates global pain -- Part 1
Posted Feb 7th 2007 5:35PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Consumer Experience, Rants and Raves, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Columns, Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP)
ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) made headlines reporting an annual profit of $39.5 billion. So what?!
So what if a company capitalized at $440 billion earns less than 10% profit. Suppose you bought the entire company "lock, stock and barrel"; wouldn't you expect to make far greater than that? You would be taking on a massive amount of responsibility and risk! Currency risk, political risk (you go deal with Putin in Russia and Chavez in Venezuela, or worse in Iraq or Iran or Africa), workman's comp for oil derricks in the Gulf Coast and elsewhere, environmental risk, government regulation -- the list is endless.
When I invest, my anticipation is at least a 10% return. Who in the entire investment world would do this, unless of course you were buying bonds paying 5% to 7% without any work. The 70-year stock market average is about 10%.
There is nothing wrong with Exxon Mobil's profit, given its size. It would be sad if they could not make 10%, and consider that they only made this with very high oil prices! If the profits were so high and prospects so good, why isn't there a run on the stock?
Continue reading $39.5 billion ExxonMobil profits: no big deal
Posted Jan 22nd 2007 3:10PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Bad News, Rants and Raves, Columns, Economic Data
Reports of a mild winter have been lost on me. I watched reports of snow in Malibu, California last week with amazement. I do not remember the last time that happened. Everyone in my household had to see it to believe it.
The Governor is declaring the fruit-killing, grower-crushing, brutal cold a state disaster. He will be seeking Federal assistance on the matter. Commentators are forecasting a loss of billions to the state, affecting growers, workers and truck drivers, not to mention consumers.
What really frosts me are all the reports I'm reading on the mild winter -- widely cited as one reason oil has been dropping. Mild compared to what, the South Pole? The Himalayas? The chill between the Donald and the View? Actually it has been cold but not very wet around Southern California, yet. But oil prices have been coming down. My prediction? Temperatures will rise again...and so will the price of oil.
Commodity prices have been softening for many months while the frost has been turning California strawberries to mush. We can all look forward to that commodity rising in price, as well as oranges, for the next few quarters.
Perhaps the surfers in Malibu who are also snowboard enthusiasts will find a path from the snow passages in the hills to the chilly beaches with winter wave action, in the first ever sleet and surf event. I'm sure Governor Schwarzenegger will be among the crowd. He might even participate depending on how fast he recovers from his recent skiing accident. Get well soon, Arnold!
Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure and read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.