Continue reading China's steel story: government slowing down demand

China's steel story: government slowing down demand originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 May 2009 18:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) closed at $45.25 Monday. Natural Gas futures are recently down 2.25% to $8.53 according to Bloomberg. BMO Capital Markets has a $68 target price on CHK. CHK September option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), a commodity-based exchange traded security, closed at $86.84. Gold is recently trading down 1.70% to $892.50. GLD option volume was heavy on August 4, 2008 with 106,112 contracts trading. GLD over all option implied volatility of 25 is near its 9-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) will report Q2 EPS on August 6. RIO, a Brazilian mineral company, closed at $26.36. Goldman has a Buy rating on RIO. RIO option volume was heavy on August 4, 2008, with 237,545 contracts trading. RIO August option implied volatility is at 66, September is at 56; above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Commodity selloff causes higher volatility originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Aug 2008 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Is investing abroad because the U.S. is going through a rough patch a good idea? If so, why? What foreign markets are attractive? Investing abroad is a good idea -- but not because the U.S. is melting down. Instead, it turns out that emerging markets are outperforming developing ones because they are supplying the commodities that fuel demand for 10% annual growth in emerging markets like China and India.

Emerging markets are up 20% in the last year while developed markets like the U.S. are flat. The reason to invest in these markets is not so much because the U.S. is going through a rough patch but more because these other markets are doing so much better and they are going to continue to do well regardless of what happens in the U.S.

But the U.S.'s rough patch may not be as bad as people had thought. An economist at Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) changed his estimate of the chances of a recession from 90% to 45%. So the U.S. may turn out to be a good place to invest if stocks are priced for a recession that doesn't happen.

Continue reading Should you invest abroad?

Should you invest abroad? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 May 2008 15:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"There's no doubt about it: vital resources are in a bull market of gigantic proportions," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad.

"The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor caution that "no market moves in a straight line, and in commodities, the action is often extremely violent." However, for long-term investors, they offer some favorites in iron ore, aluminum and copper.

"All commodity bull markets are ultimately gored by demand destruction, alternatives and new supply. But it will almost certainly be years before that happens to this one. And that means plenty of money will be made along the way.

"We're still extremely bullish on iron ore as the market remains in deficit and prices continue to rise. Chinese domestic supply has been falling and, if this continues, imports will make up the difference, thereby helping the miners.

"China consumes 51% of the world's iron supply. Portfolio holding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), the world's largest iron ore producer, will benefit from the shortage in iron ore supply.

"We favor aluminum in the industrial metals sector. We've been advocating aluminum for some time, and the market's finally going our way. Aluminum prices have been impacted by lack of available power in China and South Africa and higher alumina and bauxite prices.

Continue reading Mining trio: Iron ore, aluminum and copper

Mining trio: Iron ore, aluminum and copper originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Apr 2008 10:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Credit Suisse initiated coverage of the U.S. media sector with a Market Weight rating, shares of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) with an Outperform rating and shares of Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) and Viacom Inc (NYSE: VIA.B) with Neutral ratings.
  
• Bernstein initiated coverage of the oil services sector with a Positive Bias rating. The firm initiated Weatherford International Ltd (NYSE: WFT) with an Outperform rating and $84 target and Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL), Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE: BHI) and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) with Market Perform ratings and a $44 target, $103 target and $96 target, respectively.
  
• MercadoLibre Inc (NASDAQ: MELI) was initiated by American Technology with a Buy rating and $45 target, as the firm believes the e-commerce growth opportunity in Latin America is still in its infancy. Shares were also started at Pacific Crest with an Outperform rating and $37 target, as the firm believes the company should benefit from strong secular growth and company-specific drivers. MercadoLibre was also initiated at JP Morgan with an Overweight rating and at Merrill Lynch with a Buy rating and $35 target.
  
• Friedman Billings expects Horsehead Holding Corp's (NASDAQ: ZINC) EBITDA to increase even in a declining commodity environment and believes the company is well positioned to gain market share. Shares were started with an Outperform rating and $27 target also added to the firm's Top Pick List.

• Citigroup started shares of Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) with a Buy rating and shares of StealthGas Inc (NASDAQ: GASS) with a Hold rating and $20 target.
  
• Roth Capital started shares of Internap Network Services Corporation (NASDAQ: INAP) with a Buy rating and $19 target.
  
• Raymond James initiated Atmel Corporation (NASDAQ: ATML) with an Outperform rating and Argo Group Internaional Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: AGII) with a Strong Buy rating.

Analyst initiations: U.S. media, oil services, MELI and ZINC originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last night on MAD MONEY Cramer gave a stock to avoid as a scary stock on Halloween. He said that beverage maker Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ:HANS) is that scary stock. He said that even after the sell-off, it is up 150% and it has nothing proprietary about it.

For a backgrounder with Cramer on HANS: On September 13, 2006 Cramer gave the same call saying its trajectory made it a broken stock. It closed at $29.76 back then, but a dueling analyst call with a big upgrade the next morning caused HANS to rise 10% immediately. Today, HANS shares closed up 1.3% at $31.75.

HANS will report earnings next week, but Cramer thinks you need to get out before the report. He reminded about the 20+% drop after last earnings. He also said that Budweiser took over its distribution. Cramer said that the medical profession may even turn on these companies because kids are using their products to get high.

Cramer also went over his Best of Breed picks in Brazil. Cramer says it is nirvana down there with high growth and decent inflation. A socialist who is becoming a great quiet capitalist was recently elected there. He said that the situation in Brazil merits that investors need to be there.

CVRD-Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE:RIO) just bought Inco, and this is a great company for Cramer. He said the stock was beaten up for the acquisition of Inco, but he thinks the it is highly accretive and it should have been bought instead of sold off. Cramer also likes the cost containment they are doing, and he thinks the estimates are too low for 2007.

He said BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE:BHP) & Rio Tintoplc (NYSE:RTP) are the stocks that are popular now with money managers, but he thinks money managers will turn this into a core holding soon. He isn't calling it a double, and investors need to know that it already has a $61.8 Billion market cap. He thinks there may be 1 or 2 months before the Street switches its stance.

Cramer on Halloween: Avoid scary HANS and go to Brazil originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Nov 2006 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.