October seems to have been a good month for consumer spending. Unemployment is holding consumers back, but it isn't keeping wallets clamped shut.

A Bloomberg survey reveals that purchases grew 0.5% last month, based on the thoughts of 61 economists. The U.S. Department of Commerce is releasing its report on Wednesday. In advance of this news, Bloomberg's survey suggests that there are signs of slight improvement.

The price at the cash register ticked higher in October, though it was driven by the cost at the pump and on the lot.

Energy prices and new car sales (the highest in 28 years) pushed consumer prices upward in October, they're still cheaper than they were a year earlier. The Labor Department reports that consumer prices edged up 0.3% last month, a tad higher than the 0.2% anticipated. Take food and energy out of the equation, and inflation rose 0.2%, again ahead of the 0.1% that analysts expected.

One aspect of globalization -- basically free markets and the transfer of jobs to lower labor cost production centers -- that remains a high research priority for many economists studying markets is consumer spending. Or, more specifically, where are all the new, international consumers going to come from?

That's because the world in this early stage of the globalization era has an abundance of manufacturers and producers, but it hasn't identified where all the new shoppers will come from for the increased amount of goods.

The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.

Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

For the first half of 2010, almost two thirds of money managers are bullish, according to Barron's. In fact, 54% are bullish, and 5% are "very bullish." Responses suggest that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to gain another 5% by the end of the year.

According to Barron's, "Today's bullish investors see the major stock indexes making steady progress through next June, amid signs the U.S. economy is on the mend after a searing recession."

Consumer spending had its largest fall this year, thanks to the end of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. And, incomes were flat. No change to the money coming in and a drop in the cash going out translates to an impediment to economic recovery.

In September, consumer spending fell 0.5%, the first decline in five months and the worst in nine. Wages and salaries dropped 0.2%, effectively offsetting the 0.2% up-tick in August. The economy did grow in the third quarter of 2009, hinting that the worst recession in 70 years may be coming to a close, but the tough September suggests we still have some work in front of us.

As with the consumers to whom it sells, Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) has weathered tough times in recent months. The Cincinnati company saw revenues fall and volumes squeezed (not unlike its trademark Charmin bath tissue) as recession-weary shoppers continued to rein-in expenses and begged off buying pricier goods.

Still, following a year in which the company faced one of the most difficult macroeconomic environments in decades, P&G surprised analysts Thursday by reporting fiscal first-quarter earnings of $3.31 billion, or $1.06 a share, compared with $3.35 billion, or $1.03 a share, a year earlier. Analysts polled by Zacks.com anticipated the company would earn just 97 cents a share.

Consumer confidence ticked upward for the first time since 2007. Around the world, consumers are becoming more comfortable with the prospect of shelling out some cash, even if they're still approaching the notion with caution.

According to a survey conducted by The Nielsen Company between September 28 and October 16, 2009, consumer confidence was highest in India, with Indonesia and Norway following. Japan, Latvia, Portugal, and South Korea were at the other end of the spectrum, though South Korea did show a significant quarterly improvement.

Jobs are ready to make a comeback!

As usual, it all comes back to the consumer. Consumer demand increased, and spending follows demand, of course, which provides the fuel necessary for economic growth. When enough of this fuel is expended, we'll finally see an increase in jobs -- and relief from what is soon to be double-digit unemployment.

For the first time since the start of the recession, more companies are planning to add positions rather than cut them in the next six months.

By year-end 2009, we will see a more than $4 trillion pullback in credit lines. And we are a country that runs on credit. In fact, the entire growth in consumer spending from 1997 to 2008 was paid for with home equity lines and credit cards.

Credit standards are already impossibly high. My credit lines literally shrink every month because I do not use them. But what if I needed them? And I almost couldn't get a lease for a new car even though I have never missed a bill payment. The majority of people cannot borrow money and, therefore, cannot spend. This will not change in 2010.

Next: Reason #6: Excess capacity

Not only are consumers not spending, their actual attitudes toward spending have changed.

Even for the six people on the block who are flush with cash, frugality is the new chic. My neighbors, high-end Saab and Volkswagen types, just bought a Kia Sportage for their daughter (nice car, by the way).

A fear of a loss of income will continue to squelch consumer spending. Most people I know are fearful about their futures -- i.e., losing their jobs or seeing a cut in commissions, profits, or wages. This means they will hang on to their pennies in 2010.

Bottom line: Consumers drive 70% of GDP, and a meaningful recovery will not happen without their dollars.

Next: Reason #4: Changing consumer attitudes

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Unemployment is at 9.8%, and it's expected to clear 10% early next year. Then, we have the specter of a jobless recovery with which to contend. "Full employment" is often considered to be an unemployment rate of 4% to 5%, but it could be a while before we get there. The last downturn, following the dotcom bust, resulted in a peak unemployment rate of 6.3% in 2003 ... and we're already well past that.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.