Aeropostale (ARO) primarily competes with other specialty retailers like American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Gap (GPS) and Urban Outfitters (URBN). The company has seen steady growth in its profit margins over the past few years. EBITDA margins have increased from 10.4% in 2005 to around 19% in 2009 as Aeropostale has generated growth in comparable store sales, a metric used to measure retail sales strength.

We expect this trend to continue as the company explores ways to further optimize its supply chain, thereby improving operational efficiency. However, increasing raw material prices and a prolonged weakness in consumer spending could pose a headwind to our optimistic EBITDA margin outlook.

The past week's datapoint-of-consequence for investors had to be the December 2010 consumer credit report, which indicated that credit card debt increased for the first time in more than two years.

Revolving debt, which includes credit cards, increased by $2.3 billion in December, or at a 3.5% annualized rate, the U.S Federal Reserve said. It was the first monthly increase in credit card use since August 2008.

I first discussed MasterCard Inc. (MA) here on April 13, 2009, at a price of $176.06, and shares have vectored toward $250 resistance after a dip to $215 this winter. I obviously still like the business model at this stage.

Look for MasterCard to post an impressive 9% to 12% revenue increase in 2011 and a 7% to 9% gain in 2012. MasterCard has emerged from the nation's worst recession in more than 25 years in enviable shape, even amid the frugal consumer era that's likely to restrict U.S. consumer spending. Look for transaction growth to continue, as a result of the U.S. and global trend toward increased use of credit cards.

In projecting U.S. GDP growth at about a 2% rate for the remainder of this year and in 2011, I have noted that the two propellants of growth so far in this economic recovery -- the inventory revival and fiscal stimuli -- are largely exhausted.

But are there other sectors of the economy that might serve as the backbone of any meaningful economic recovery? I don't see any, especially with U.S. consumers continuing their saving spree, repaying debts and remaining hesitant to spend like they did during the boom times of earlier years.

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

Investors -- certainly U.S. stock investors -- would be wise to keep one eye on the price of oil, currently pushing $90 per barrel. Oil traded up 10 cents to $89.29 on Monday at mid-day.

And the reason is obvious enough: once again, oil is approaching the danger zone, from a U.S. GDP growth standpoint.

No one knows precisely at what point oil begins to substantially hinder consumer spending and slow commercial activity -- but this much is known: every $1 per barrel rise in oil decreases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent increase in gasoline decreases U.S. consumer disposable income by about $600 million per year.

Friday morning got off to a bearish start, a slump that wasn't helped much by the latest release of consumer sentiment data from Reuters and the University of Michigan (of course, this slow start turned positive thanks to the GDP).

Big Boo's report showed that consumer sentiment weakened from 68.2 in September to 67.7 in October. An earlier estimate for October was 67.9, with a MarketWatch poll showing an estimate for 68.5. The biggest problem facing consumers is the loss of jobs, which was the major reason for the drop in sentiment.

"Royal Caribbean (RCL) has nothing new or revolutionary going for it, but it's one of the strongest stocks in the market," says Mike Cintolo.

The editor of Cabot Top Ten Weekly explains, "With its nearly 40 cruise ships, the stock is a a pure-play on discretionary leisure spending, and its earnings can rise rapidly during improving times.

"And that's what investors are discounting now -- earnings fell from $2.82 per share in 2007 to 75 cents last year, but look set to get back to $2 per share this year and challenge new-high ground in 2011!

There's an upside and a downside for investors regarding the Social Security Administration's recently announced no change in the Social Security benefit, for the second straight year.

The upside is that it will result in a smaller fund outlay than would have occurred had a cost of living adjustment occurred. (The adjustment is based on the U.S. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W, third quarter to third quarter. Because there was no increase in the CPI-W, there is no cost of living adjustment.)

A member of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which announced Monday that the U.S. recession ended in June 2009, told The New York Times (NYT) the U.S. economy must grow at a 2.5% rate just to keep the unemployment rate, currently 9.6%, constant.

By extension, the world's largest economy will need upwards of 2.7% U.S. GDP growth annually -- probably closer to 3% growth -- to substantially reduce unemployment.

How about getting millions of China's new middle class to contribute to that growth? Li Daokui, an economist and an adviser to the People's Bank of China, agrees, at least regarding consumption by China's consumers.

Given the size and complexity of the U.S. economy, forecasts regarding U.S. GDP growth must be viewed with caution: they contain a margin of error, and are subject to substantial revisions. Even so, with consumer credit card-based purchases continuing to decline, one conclusion investors can draw is that U.S. GDP growth probably will be lower during this expansion than it was during previous post-Cold War era expansions.

One major reason? Historically, consumer spending has account for 65% to 70% of U.S. GDP. If consumer spending remains modest, it's highly unlikely that the economy will be able to grow as fast as it typically does when consumption is high.

News that credit card debt has fallen to an eight-year low may not be the news that Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) want to hear, but it is good news overall given the employment and economic situation. It's a sign of fiscal discipline during rough times.

Some analysts were a bit worried about credit card debt after the housing crisis; if you are unemployed, it can be easy to run up large debts on credit cards and then default on them.

I am sure there are some out there who think that consumers need to go out and spend more money to stimulate the economy, but that logic is not always good depending on the purchases.

Government debt is expanding -- again! At the same time corporate coffers are overflowing some $1.6 trillion with reserve capital, not counting financial institutions. In some instances they have more money than any state in the Union and most small countries. Chasing Value: Apple's Holding $48 Billion -- For What?

Here's a shocker -- personal savings continues to increase. When the (false) economy was booming valuations for everything were spiraling out of control, leverage was extreme, and the savings rate was next to nothing. Everyone wanted to join the party and most people stayed at the party to long, which did not end well. The savings rate has not been so high in a decade as people reduce their debt and streamline their personal budgets.

Today's stock market could not offer a repeat of triple-digit DJIA gains. Personal income and spending failed to offer a renewed hope that a major upside was coming from Joe Public in new consumer spending. The pending home sales data is also running at historic lows.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,636.38 -38.00 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,120.46 -5.40 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,283.52 -11.84 (-0.52%)

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It looks like Monday's rally will be a memory thanks to Tuesday's earnings disappointments and economic data. Let's take a look at the consumer spending data that was released.

The Commerce Department announced that personal spending was unchanged during June, marking the third-straight month that saw "lackluster consumer demand." Incomes were also flat during June, turning in the weakest month in the past nine.