Maybe the government should start subsidizing the anti-depressant industry. That's the only way investors are going to be able to cope with the drumbeat of depressing economic news such as consumer confidence hitting near a 28-year low.
According to Bloomberg News, The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to 57.9, from 57.6 in October. In 2007, the index averaged 85.6. I was able to tell things were bad this summer by the huge number of garage sales that I saw in my area. A few people placed their living room furniture for sale on their front lawns. It was among the saddest things I have ever seen.
Consumers have good reason to feel uneasy. Companies such as Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) are laying off thousands of workers. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson abruptly changed his mind yesterday about how to prop-up the ailing banking sector and still wants to keep details of the deals that have been cut secret. My colleague Peter Cohan persuasively argued that President-elect Barack Obama should scrap the Paulson plan when he takes office in January.
Are you better off than you were a year ago? Probably not. Since then, global markets have lost roughly half, or $30 trillion worth of their value. House prices fell 16.6% between August 2007 and August 2008 and 3.4 million people are expected to have foreclosed on their houses by the end of 2009. So you can't retire as soon as you thought and if you still own it, you can't borrow money against your house.
Looking ahead to the holiday season and witnessing thousands of people losing their jobs could put you in a bad mood. After all, median income is down since 2000 while it still costs much more to fill your gas tank than it did back then -- not to mention pay for health care. So it should come as no surprise to learn that consumer confidence is lower than it has been in the last 41 years.
But consumers are not smart. As John McCain advisor, Phil Gramm has said, Americans are whiners. And McCain himself has made it clear that the economic fundamentals are strong. After all, McCain (or more likely his wife) owns seven houses and thirteen cars. So the point is that his economic fundamentals are strong. And that's all that really matters.
In a sign that Americans are bracing themselves for hard times, or at least taking a break and holding their breath while they see what direction things go in, apparel chains reported September sales, which usually rise at this time of year, were not at all where stores expect them to be.
In a sign that customers are looking toward frugality, WalMart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) saw a small gain in sales, though not as much as analysts would have liked.
Look for this effect to hit other retail environments, not just apparel, if the market continues to be the top headline and spook customers.
One of the most basic precepts of the U.S. economy is that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth depends on the consumer -- some 70% of GDP growth, in particular. The U.S. has created two inter-related industry clusters to assure that consumer spending keeps growing. While one continues in full force, the other is failing fast. This is causing consumers to put their spending into reverse, creating an economy-wide recession diet on steroids.
What are these two inter-related industry clusters? The Celebrity Industrial Complex (CIC) assures that we see images of the wealthiest and most celebrated sliver of society -- creating a desire to close the gap between us and them. And the Borrowing Industrial Complex (BIC) provides the cash we otherwise could not afford to pay for the goods and services that never quite close that gap. The CIC is still going strong, but with incomes down since 2000, household wealth slashed by $6 trillion, and banks scrambling for capital, the BIC is in cardiac arrest.
Consumers have decided to ignore the psychological pull of the CIC and use whatever money they still have to keep their families alive. While official government statistics don't show this -- perhaps they will when it releases third quarter reports -- consumers are cutting back. Gil Colon, sales manager at Villa Reale, a Las Vegas art and furniture store puts it well: "People have lost their confidence. They have no buying power. They are losing their retirements, their vacation funds, and they are scared to commit to buying anything," according to The New York Times.
Consumer confidence hit a five month high, according to a Reuters/University of Michigan survey. However, for those hoping for a recovery, that good news comes with a lot of negative.
General consumer spending dipped, probably in no small part to a dip in personal income of 0.7% in July, according to recent numbers. Also up, price increases that have pushed inflation to a 17-year high that has eroded consumer buying power. Both of these work to negate any impact consumer confidence might have.
Also adding weight to the market are worries and uncertainties surrounding the effect hurricane Gustav will have on oil production, ending a long run of lowering oil prices. Expect higher gas prices.
With all these worries on people's minds, here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
For those of you who own blue-chip stocks, this is an eye-opening prediction. An article at CNBC.com talks about the possibility of Dow 10,000. Dow 10,000!
I repeated that in case you didn't get it the first time. It sounds pretty scary to me, and it should sound pretty scary to a lot of you out there. I'd have to presume that most investors don't use the stock market primarily as a substitute casino for the times when Las Vegas is out of reach. Many of you out there must own a Disney (NYSE: DIS) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), maybe a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), something generally considered core and safe for the long-term. I happen to own the first three. Anyone who does is in for some huge volatility if Dow 10,000 comes along.
Actually, whether it comes along or not, volatility is here to stay. And here's the thing about the Dow 10,000 prediction: it isn't so farfetched on a mathematical basis. When you first read that number, you say to yourself "No way, that would be like a depression!" But because the numbers are getting higher, the actual point moves aren't as dramatic as they may seem on the surface. If we hit 10,000, that would represent a decline of approximately 29% from the high reached back in October 2007. As I write this, the Dow is about 20% off the high. Is another 9% feasible?
Well, I can't predict when the market will turn, or when Toyota's (NYSE: TM) stock will once again be in favor, but I can tell you that I won't be buying its shares here. According to this article, Toyota may not do as well as it planned in terms of sales in 2008 in the U.S. market. The company told investors that year-over-year growth in the number of cars sold is now in question. In 2007, Toyota moved 2.62 million automobiles in the U.S., and for 2008, Toyota wanted to sell 2.64 million cars.
I probably don't need to say it, but I will: considering the negative trends in oil futures, gas prices, consumer confidence, inflation, recession potential, and the housing industry, the fact that the stocks of Toyota, General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Ford (NYSE: F) are having a really tough time right now is not surprising. Toyota's stock closed down 2% on the news of the sales struggle at the end of Tuesday's trading session. That's not a particularly horrible downward move, and the stock is still a few bucks above its 52-week low, but I think there's a chance the stock will take out that low at some point.
Investing in the auto industry might be a dicey move here. Sure, you could pick up some bounces, but being early in this space could prove depressing for even the heartiest investor. Auto sales might get worse before they get better (they're pretty bad now as it is), so I'll stay away from Toyota and this sector.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Reuters reports that consumer confidence has hit a 28-year low. That should not come as a surprise. After all, between 2000 and 2007 the median income has dropped from $61,000 to $60,500. But prices have skyrocketed. And with growth slowing -- the prospect of layoffs looms large while consumers expect prices to keep rising.
There is something called the Federal Reserve. And it's supposed to keep those inflationary expectations under control by raising interest rates to strengthen the currency and keep credit use from going haywire. But the Fed got confused. It thought that by cutting rates from 5.25% to 2%, it could revive a frozen credit market without boosting inflation. Whoops! Now the credit markets remain frozen but actual inflation and expectations for future inflation are both skyrocketing.
Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) recently said that it would scale back its plans for opening new locations in the U.S. in 2008 and for the next few years, citing a "squeeze-play on consumers." Instead of the announced 90 new stores this year, Kohl's now expects to open 70 to 75 new stores this year. The retailer is still on track to open its 1,000th store later in 2008, however.
Although the "mall store outside the mall" has identified about 400 sites for potential locations in the near future, it said that kind of expansion may not happen until 2014. Last year, the retailer opened 112 stores nationwide, ending up with a total of 943 stores total in 57 states.
Kohl's is right when it said that its customers are "under a lot of pressure" due to higher fuel, grocery and health care costs. The good news, from what I have seen in the past, is that Kohl's has very low prices for much of its "Croft & Barrow" apparel items, its private-label brand. If it can fight the good fight with Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) in terms of prices and clothing selection, it may yet have decent sales on those items as expensive housewares and related items sink this year.
Profit rose to $2.71 billion, or 82 cents per share, compared with $2.51 billion, or 74 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue rose 9% to $20.46 billion from $18.69 billion last year. The Cincinnati-based company was expected to earn 81 cents on revenue of $21.44 billion, according to Thomson Financial.
"P&G delivered strong results in-line with long-term targets in a challenging economic and competitive environment with broad-based sales and share growth, earnings growth and overhead cost improvement," said Chief Executive AG Lafley in the earnings release.
Shares of the maker of Tide (my favorite detergent) and Pampers (our family's preferred diaper for my son) have slumped more than 10% this year under-performing rivals including Church & Dwight Co. (NYSE: CHD) and Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL). Uniliver Plc. (NYSE: UL) has fared slightly worse than P&G.
Shares of home builder KB Home (NYSE: KBH) have been tumbling in early trading after the company announced this morning it swung to a first quarter loss. The company's quarterly numbers were dragged down by higher write-downs related to lower home prices. Unlike its competitor Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), KB Home was not able to beat analysts' expectations, sending its shares down over 5% this morning.
Including a charge of $223.9 million in write-downs, the residential home builder posted a quarterly loss of $268.2 million, or $3.47 per share, hurt by lower new home deliveries and orders. The company's quarterly numbers were also hurt by higher impairment charges. Analysts expected KB Home to show a quarterly loss of "only" $1.17 per share.
The global crisis in the credit market put pressure on the home builder's revenue, which plunged 43% to $794.2 million. For this period, the slumping housing market and credit crisis came with a plunge of 75% for new home orders and with a drop of 57% for new home deliveries. Analysts, on average, predicted sales of $805.7 million in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial.
After showing optimism last month over its further earnings, department store operator J.C. Penney Inc. (NYSE: JCP) turned this morning to the pessimistic side and warned it expects first-quarter earnings below its previous predictions due to weak consumer demand.
The company now expects earnings of about 50 cents per share in the first-quarter, down from its prior forecast for profit in a range of 75 cents and 80 cents per share. This is well below analysts' expectations of earnings of 75 cents per share in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial.
J.C. Penney blamed challenging market conditions that put a curb on consumer spending. The slumping U.S. housing market, credit crisis and soaring oil prices put pressure on consumer confidence, resulting in low revenue numbers. During the Easter holiday, the retailer counted lower-than-expected sales.
Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) stock is declining this morning on news that consumer confidence dropped to a 75.0 reading from a 87.3 reading last month, according to the Conference Board. Wall Street is also feeling pressure this morning from a 0.4% gain in the core Producers Price Index, a key indicator of inflation. Both pieces of news are reinforcing worries that the economy is suffering from stagflation, a combination of a weakening economy and rising costs. This could be a bad sign for a company like RIMM that produces high-cost, often discretionary goods. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on RIMM.
After hitting a one-year low of $42.93 in April, the stock hit a one-year high of $137.01 in November. This morning, RIMM opened at $108.03. So far today the stock has hit a low of $105.01 and a high of $108.45. As of 11:00, RIMM is trading at $106.93, down $1.78 (-1.6%). The chart for RIMM looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
There has been real concern about this year's e-commerce numbers. comScore has online spending up about 18%. The data for the period from November 1 through December 14 show sales of $22.67 billion.
But, these numbers are down from a growth rate of 26% for the same period last year. Part of that may be due to big percentages being harder to hit as the base grows. That explanation may not be acceptable to Wall Street. Online revenue is still only about 5% of total retail sales. A drop-off in the numbers must have some other explanation.
It turns out that there is reason, and it is an unpleasant one. comScore's data show that people in households with incomes under $50,000 have only increased their spending 10% so far this holiday season. Shoppers in households with incomes over $100,000 are spending 28% more.
What is evident is that people with modest incomes are feeling pinched. It's no wonder with fuel prices high and home prices low. These essentials usually make up a larger portion of the budgets of those who are not in the affluent tiers of the population.
Who gets hurt by the numbers? Discount retailers which cater to the middle and lower classes such as Wal-Mart.com (NYSE: WMT).
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Consumer confidence nearly hit a two-year low as consumers had to face a slumping housing market, tighter credit conditions and higher energy prices. The RBC Cash Index showed that December confidence fell to 65.9, close to a level of 64 in November, which was the worst reading since 2005 when consumer confidence dropped under the Gulf Coast hurricanes devastations.
According to economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics, consumers are facing "a great deal of fear and foreboding." The overall economy put pressure on consumers' confidence which has deteriorated sharply over the past year. In the month of December of last year, the Index reflected a solid reading of 86.9. Its level fell during the past year, hurt by the housing market collapse, higher home foreclosures, and harder-to-get credit.
Maybe the government should start subsidizing the anti-depressant industry. That's the only way investors are going to be able to cope with the drumbeat of depressing economic news such as consumer confidence hitting near a 28-year low.
Are you better off than you were a year ago? Probably not. Since then, global markets have lost roughly half, or 
One of the most basic precepts of the U.S. economy is that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth depends on the consumer -- some 70% of GDP growth, in particular. The U.S. has created two inter-related industry clusters to assure that consumer spending keeps growing. While one continues in full force, the other is failing fast. This is causing consumers to put their spending into reverse, creating an economy-wide 
For those of you who own blue-chip stocks, this is an eye-opening prediction. An article at 
Well, I can't predict when the market will turn, or when 
Consumers these days are so lacking in confidence that 
Shares of home builder 
After showing 
There has been real concern about this year's e-commerce numbers. comScore has online spending up about 18%. The data for the period from November 1 through December 14 show sales of $22.67 billion.
Consumer confidence nearly hit a two-year low
Before the bell: Wall Street headed higher; automakers, retailers in focus
Waiting for the other shoe to drop: The looming credit crisis
Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)
