Consumer prices rose 0.2% in April 2008, the U.S. Labor Department announced Wednesday, a statistic below the consensus estimate as oil prices moderated during month, offsetting rising food prices.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected April 2008 consumer prices to increase 0.3%. Consumer prices increased 0.3% in March 2008.

Also, the core rate, which excludes the frequently-volatile food and energy component, rose just 0.2% in April 2008, inline with the Bloomberg News survey 0.2% consensus estimate.

On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices have risen 3.9% and the core rate has risen 2.3%. The core rate remains slightly above U.S. Federal Reserve's 'comfort zone' for inflation. The Fed uses the core CPI rate as one of its primary gauges of consumer-based inflation.

April 2008 CPI: 'Surprisingly tame'

Economist David H. Wang said the April 2008 CPI report was a bit of a surprise -- one that may help the U.S. economy. "The report was surprisingly tame. We do see rising food costs, but the energy component was not as bad as expected," Wang said. "Also, core year-over-year inflation is not too bad, and the Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] will look favorably upon this, if it remains moderate."

Inflation: "An increase in the amount of money and credit in relation to the supply of goods and services; An increase of the general price level; An excessive or persistent increase in wages and costs causing a decline in purchasing power."

Recession: "A temporary falling off of business activity during a period when such activity has been generally increasing."

(Source: Websters New World Dictionary, Third College Edition)

Rather than an opinion piece, which is what I generally write, this little snippet is meant more as a discussion generator than a statement of my own economic view. I earnestly invite our readers to weigh in on the matter. Inflation or recession, are we now experiencing either or both?

In a choppy (or perhaps worse) market, it doesn't hurt to own a stock or two in which global trends are running in the company's favor. With that in mind, Barrick Gold is worth an evaluation.

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) is the world's No. 1 gold producer, including 2006 production of 8 million ounces, and 120 million ounces in proved and probable reserves. Analysts see a 14-17% revenue gain in 2008, following a solid performance in 2007, with a higher average gold price.

What's driving the gold bull market? Three factors: increased use of gold in industrial and commercial applications, impressive jewelry demand, and increased reliance on gold and gold shares as an alternative investment. All three trends are global in scope and show little signs of abating in 2008. Asia-based jewelry demand looks especially promising in the immediate years ahead. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for ABX are $1.51/$2.17.

Dairy product marketers such as Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) are continuing to warn consumers, economists and investors of the pressures that rising corn prices will soon be placing upon our economy. The pursuit of an unfettered increase in corn based ethanol production is raising inflationary pressures on consumer pocketbooks by increasing the feed costs for dairy, beef , pork and poultry farmers. When coupling the feed cost increases with the higher prices for fuel and fertilizer, we have a recipe for inflationary spikes in consumer food prices which will most probably reach well into the double digits over the next three years.

National Milk Producers Federation spokesman Chris Galen said ethanol usage has led to higher costs for corn and wheat products, which in turn affects the cost of other products, as reported by UPI. Twice within the last six months Dean Foods has faced analyst downgrades as a result of the pressures that rising fuel and feed costs are putting on dairy producers large and small. One downgrade occurred in March and another occurred just this month. Those companies such as Dean Foods, which have their primary focus in dairy products, will be harder hit than companies which have broader focus similar to Kraft.

The opinion is expressed that investors who wish to play the ethanol game should be focusing their intentions on cellulosic ethanol interests rather than ethanol operations based on corn and sugars. While the profitability of cellulosic ethanol does not reach the same levels as ethanol from corn, in the long run the vastly lowered degree of raw material price volatility and the greatly reduced level of controversy will have cellulosic ethanol investors sleeping much more peacefully than their corn-fed brothers.

Once again equity markets tumbled today, pushing the Dow and the Russell 2000 into the red for the year. For the NASDAQ it was the eighth consecutive day of losses.

Causes for today's sell-off are numerous:

• Before the bell, the Labor Department reported a 0.3% increase in the May producer price index (core), slightly higher than expected.
• About two thirds of global markets also reported major declines, mostly due to worries regarding rising interest rates in the U.S. choking off consumer demand for exports.
• Yields of short-term to long-term bonds continued their inversion, indicating the market's expectation of an economic slowdown.
• Fear the Fed is going too far with its rate hikes.

Declines in oil and gold prices didn't ease investors' concerns.

Tomorrow is what the market is really waiting for, the release of the May consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. eastern. The consensus for the CPI and core CPI is 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. If the numbers comes below or within estimate, we can expect the market to start recovering from this month long correction.