Well, it looks like Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) put me and my earnings preview to shame. The company delivered a great second quarter. The company, whose colleagues include Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), grew its bottom line by over 22% on a per-share basis. Heinz scored $0.87 per diluted share in profit, enough to wallop the analyst community's estimate of $0.76 per share.
Heinz made sure to hedge itself in terms of currency effects. That helped drive the quarter. The company's strong brand portfolio delivered, on an overall basis, almost 6% in organic sales growth. Management was able to leverage the equity of its product line to enact favorable pricing measures. And one of my favorite parts of an earnings report is the statement of cash flows. Cash from operations rose almost 10%, and operating free cash flow by the company's calculation (Heinz adds back disposals of capital property/equipment) increased almost 9%. It would, of course, be nice to see the growth rate of cash flow be closer to the growth rate of earnings, but at least cash generation is trending upward.
Gotta tell you, though, it looks like the market could care less about Heinz and its nifty numbers. As I write this, the stock is down 0.8%. I would have figured on a little more excitement considering that today was something of a calm day in the markets at large. Apparently Wall Street doesn't feel a lot of confidence concerning Heinz and its ability to keep up the good work. All I can say is that no stock should be considered defensive, even Heinz. We're playing by a different rule book, one that was written by a crazy lunatic. It seems like every stock is a gamble. If you have extreme patience and can tie up money for a long, long time, Heinz is not a bad bet at its current dividend yield. Otherwise, you may want to hoard cash.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), whose supermarket colleagues include Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), will be reporting second-quarter numbers on Friday, November 21. According to AOL Finance, the call is for approximately $0.76 in terms of earnings per share. That would represent about 7% of bottom-line growth. That wouldn't be too bad in this market.
Whether or not Heinz can beat the estimates, it's hard to say. My opinion? I wouldn't be betting on such an outcome. If I were a shareholder of the ketchup company, I would just hope that management at least meets expectations. I doubt that anything in the report will make me say that Heinz is now a perfect defensive stock. Literally nothing is defensive; best thing you can do in this market is hedge yourself by shorting some of it via an instrument like the ProShares Ultrashort (NYSE: DXD) ETF.
Heinz wasn't too far off from its 52-week low at the close on Wednesday. Considering that consumer-products companies may have a tough time competing with generic brands on price points, it's going to be difficult to see how the outlook for Heinz will be anything but cautious at best. Investors will be tracking the changes in volumes and how currency affects profits. And then there's the gross margin. With energy prices down, that should in theory help the metric, or at least I imagine that would be the case.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), which competes with Clorox (NYSE: CLX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), will be reporting earnings for the fiscal first quarter on Wednesday. The data will be scrutinized carefully to see if P&G might be a viable idea in these tumultuous times. Of course, P&G is a great long-term investment for a core portfolio of buy-and-hold stocks, but there will be plenty of investors on Wall Street looking to gauge the company's potential as a defensive trade.
According to Earnings.com, P&G should earn about $0.98 per share. At least, that's the goal that analysts have set for management. If P&G hits that number, then it will have achieved a modest growth rate of around 6%. I expect P&G to beat expectations by a penny or two, given its recent history. The company usually is pretty good about that. Also, free cash flow should be more than acceptable to investors. Management watches cash-flow generation carefully (as it should), and traditionally makes that a priority. Naturally, it wants to balance the needs of long-term growth along with the need to deliver a proper flow of cash. So far, things have worked out over time on that count.
The big question now is: What about the future outlook? What the company says about this subject will probably end up driving the stock's reaction. The global marketplace is headed for a slowdown. Consumers are tightening their belts. Will they reach for generic brands and ignore the brand equity of the products in P&G's vast portfolio? P&G is going to have become aggressive about promoting its stuff. The company will want to make sure that people still feel their getting value for their dollar. That dollar, after all, goes farther with a generic equivalent. From my viewpoint, I think there is still value to be had from name brands. Even during a recession, I'll buy better quality items. Just yesterday I happened to pick up one of P&G's family members -- Bounty paper towels. It was on sale, but I'm sure there was a generic lurking around the corner that was cheaper. I didn't even bother looking for it. Sure, I do buy some generics, but I don't necessarily become obsessed with them.
P&G wasn't that far from the 52-week low at Monday's close. I wouldn't be setting up an earnings trade ahead of it because of all the uncertainty, but holders of the stock should fare reasonably well come the middle of the week (P&G did fine the last time).
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Consumer-products company Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) was the latest company to see its stock placed on the chopping block. That's been happening a lot these days. The shares tumbled over 7% on Wednesday and closed at $57.22. While 7% is bad enough, it actually feels worse to say that the stock lost $4.45 per share on the session. When it comes to businesses that sell popular brands to consumers, shedding $4 per share is just awful. Especially for a stock that should be a defensive name, a proverbial port in the even more proverbial storm.
Kimberly-Clark posted an adjusted profit of $1.02 per share Wednesday morning, which was a penny better than analyst expectations. The article also states that the company is suffering from a shifting exchange-rate environment and competition from private-label products. That latter point is really going to be a problem for businesses such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Clorox (NYSE: CLX), and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). At some point, many will probably reach for generic items as opposed to name-brand counterparts.
This doesn't mean that companies who use big brands as their main ammunition for long-term growth should be avoided. Indeed, a company that can figure out how to strike a prosperous balance between the premium it can charge for its name products and the willingness of consumers to pay it will oftentimes do well in tough markets. Kraft (NYSE: KFT) had success with this during the previous quarter. Price increases were able to power results. Kimberly-Clark is going to be severely challenged in terms of maintaining margins and keeping up a proper level of marketing spending. Everyone's going after the consumer's wallet these days, so breaking out from the pack is a requisite undertaking.
So far, the company has received 209 reports of the popular machines overheating on users, and in 7 instances, users received minor burns as a result of the overheating laptops.
The computers in question involve 19 models in the Vaio TZ series that were produced between the months of May 2007 and July 2008. According to Sony, the problem is a result of some improper wire connections in the hinge between the laptop body and the the monitor that appears to be wearing out and causing short circuits in the machines.
Of the seven injuries that have been reported, five were reported in Japan, and one in both the United States as well as Italy.
The recalled machines are located all over the globe, with around 373,000 of the computers being sold in 48 different countries. The remaining 67,000 recalled machines were sold in Japan.
If you think that your computer may be a part of this recall, you should definitely contact Sony to find out.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.
Should those who own shares of Kraft immediately put an order in to dump the stock? Well, shareholders know what is best for them and their specific situations, but if you want my opinion, I don't think Kraft is a sell.
For starters, that $1.88 per share figure represents an adjustment related to the sale of the Post cereal asset. It therefore doesn't bother me too much. And as for the 2009 estimate, Kraft's $2-per-share guidance includes a $0.03 charge for the Post-cereal exit and monies devoted to cost savings. Analyst estimates for the most part don't factor adjustments into their bottom-line figures. So, this guidance doesn't really frighten me.
What I think is more telling is the issue of margins. Consumer-products companies such as Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Kellogg (NYSE: K) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) all have margins on their corporate minds. From what I can tell, Kraft has been pretty successful at protecting itself from inflation by utilizing price increases.
Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) beat analyst expectations, and mine for that matter, when it released its first-quarter report on Thursday. Wall Street was looking for about 66 cents per share on the bottom line. Heinz delivered 72 per cents share, a figure that represents a 14% growth rate. This was achieved with the help of a 15% rise in top-line sales.
Management mentioned that organic sales were aided pretty evenly by volume growth and pricing strategies. Looks like brand equity wins the day yet again. People are simply willing to pay for their name brands. This isn't to say that generic, private-label items won't always be a concern for companies like Heinz, as well as competitors such as Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) and General Mills (NYSE: GIS). They always will be.
Heinz is proving to be one heck of a defensive business during this tough recession. The only segment where the company is having problems is in its U.S. Foodservice where sales and operating income declined. Not so surprising, I suppose, since some restaurants are having trouble getting patrons through the door. People may be willing to spend for Heinz ketchup in the supermarket, but if they're not willing to go to the local casual-dining hangout, then those places won't be demanding as much Heinz ketchup for their tables.
Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), famous maker of thick-and-rich ketchups and other foodstuffs, is due to report first-quarter results on Thursday. So, what might be in store for the company? Are we looking at a lot of growth for the bottom line?
Well, according to Earnings.com, analysts aren't looking for much growth at all. Last year at this time, Heinz served up 63 cents per share. Wall Street seems to be looking for three measly pennies of growth! Can Heinz beat the 66 cents per share that analysts believe it will report?
Looking at some past price history, I can't say that I'm overly optimistic that Heinz will beat the expectations by too much (if it beats at all, that is). Remember that consumer-products companies are having one heck of a time with inflation. Raising prices is key to survival, but those higher price-tags must be accepted by the consumer base.
Increased marketing spending also is important during times like these since many businesses want to see if they can capture some market share while the competition is hurting.
So investors will want to carefully evaluate the margins and volume of sales when Heinz issues its earnings release. This has been par for the course for businesses such as Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), and General Mills (NYSE: GIS).
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported its Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday. The numbers looked very good to me (save for one, which I'll get to). P&G was up over 3% on Tuesday. Granted, the Dow saw one heck of a rally yesterday, but even so, P&G deserved a bid just due to its blue-chip corporate performance.
Revenues for the quarter increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per diluted share jumped over 19% to $0.80. For the year, revenues increased 9% and adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 15% to $3.50. As I stated in my earnings preview from the other day, Wall Street was looking for adjusted earnings to be around $0.78 per share. So P&G beat by two pennies.
Of course, the earnings beat is nice, but cash flow is even nicer. In fact, management likes to evaluate itself by comparing its free cash flow to net earnings. P&G would like the so-called "free cash flow productivity" metric to equal at least 90%. Well, shareholders need not worry, since productivity in these terms was 96% for the quarter and 106% for the fiscal year. Free cash flow for the year expanded by 21%, and it was more than enough to power P&G's great dividend.
The company that brings you Ivory Soap, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), is set to divulge its Q4 numbers on Tuesday. So, what should shareholders expect from this consumer-products behemoth?
Well, I don't think it's going to be much of a surprise. Data at Earnings.com suggest that analysts believe P&G will do $0.78 per share in terms of the bottom line. Management actually expects around that number, as well. A recent piece I wrote about P&G reiterating its guidance shows that between $0.76 and $.78 per share is the range being looked at. So, I think we'll see the top end of the range reported tomorrow. P&G has a solid recent history of slightly beating expectations. Perhaps there will be a beat, but it most likely won't be by more than a penny.
This will represent pretty decent performance in a market wracked by horrible inflationary pressures. Going back to Earnings.com, the previous year's bottom-line number was $0.67 per share, so P&G will be looking at good double-digit growth. The top line, by the way, should expand at least 8%. Volume data will also be important to look at so investors can get a handle on how successfully the company is cultivating price increases. P&G has a significant advantage over competitors since its line of products is so well-known and trusted. I mean, when it comes to things like Ivory Soap, many consumers will refuse to alter their brand loyalties even if they have to pay more at the pump. Yes, sales of generic products obviously do have a challenging impact, but as I found with Kraft's (NYSE: KFT) recent earnings report, brand equity is a selective advantage in the Darwinian landscape of supermarket shelves. It's also useful for protecting margins.
Kellogg (NYSE: K), arch competitor of General Mills (NYSE: GIS), issued its Q2 missive to investors on Thursday, and from my viewpoint, things look pretty good at the famous breakfast icon(see more earnings news). Kellogg finds itself in a similar situation to Kraft (NYSE: KFT). The company has had to raise prices to keep up with input costs, and it's doing reasonably well in passing those increases along to the consumers who love its brands.
Net sales rose 11% to $3.3 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $0.82, which was one penny higher than analyst expectations, as cited in this Before the Bell piece. Considering that Kellogg was fighting inflation and significantly increasing its marketing spend to keep its product line humming, the 9% expansion in the bottom line can be looked upon in a positive light. Of course, the weak dollar did help the top line. Stripping out currency effects and acquisitions, the revenue growth was closer to 6%. Still, Kellogg is holding up as best it can, and although free cash flow for the six-month period was down 10%, there still were enough funds to service the dividend obligation.
Kellogg has reduced costs, raised its guidance, and initiated a new share-repurchase scheme worth $500 million that will begin sometime toward the latter part of the year. The cereal king thinks it will now do somewhere between $2.95 and $3.00 per share in terms of earnings. Those thinking of adding Kellogg to a long-term portfolio might benefit from waiting for a higher yield, maybe in the 3% area, considering how volatile the markets are.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Kraft (NYSE: KFT) had one heck of a second quarter. It was a lot better than I thought it would be. As Melly Alazraki reported in her Before the bell post on Monday, Kraft managed to demolish analyst expectations by delivering 58 cents per share to the bottom line, a number that no only represented a 16% growth but that was 8 cents better than what Wall Street analysts were looking for. Overall, net revenues soared over 21%, while organic-revenue growth came in at roughly 7%. Not bad at all.
Even with the hellish inflation of input costs dogging it, Kraft managed to engage a price-increasing strategy that not only defended the bottom line but helped it thrive. How could it do this? Brand power, my friends. Looks like investors underestimated that power, and the fact that people are willing to pay more for the things they love.
Of course, it might be understandable that investors would not be willing to credit Kraft and its portfolio with such earnings-beating potential considering that there's so much competition out there from generic brands and that fuel costs are eating into supermarket budgets. Yet, the numbers support Kraft's current strategies. Volume wasn't too negatively affected in my opinion, and the margins turned out to be just fine -- something investors love to see when inflation is out front every single day in the headlines.
It wasn't a super quarter for Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB). The consumer-products company only met expectations set for it by Wall Street. But, sometimes, that's pretty good, given the conditions the business is working in. As a matter of fact, I see that Brent Archer penned a recent post discussing how inflation is hurting Kimberly-Clark (and just about every other entity, as well). At that time, the company projected a $900 million increase in terms of inflationary pressures, double management's previous estimate. So, looking through this current earnings release, I can't help but feel that things could have been worse.
For the second quarter, net sales rose 11% to $5 billion. Earnings on an adjusted basis dropped a penny compared to the year-ago period, coming in at $1.03 per share. Like I said, that matched expectations, according to Briefing.com. Guidance for the future also appears to be in-line. Kimberly-Clark seems, to me at least, to be holding its own during a difficult time. And here's a couple cash-flow data points that should appeal to many investors. Operating cash flow for the quarter was up 16% to $753 million. Prudent management of the company's working capital benefited this metric. And on a six-month basis, cash from operations also increased, albeit not by much. That sum rose a little under 2% to almost $1.2 billion. I like to see good cash-flow numbers like that, especially for dividend-paying concerns.
And speaking of dividends, Kimberly-Clark's stock is trading at a great yield, over 4%. Of course, that means that investors buying today will need a lot of patience. You'll be paid to wait, but if you're into fast capital-appreciation rates, you probably won't get it here, not in this trading environment. Inflation will continue to be a concern for it, as well as consumer-product colleagues such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Energizer (NYSE: ENR).
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) wants to calm the nerves of jittery Wall Street. According to this item, the Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) warning has spooked investors worried about inflation (I'm one of them). So, P&G wanted to let everyone know that things will be all right at the maker of Ivory soap and Pringles potato chips (or is that crisps?).
P&G is confident that it can deliver top-line growth of between 8% and 10% when it next reports. Also, management believes that earnings per share will still be somewhere between $0.76 and $0.78. You know it's a bad market when an announcement indicating that the status quo will merely be maintained as opposed to being exceeded is enough to keep a stock slightly in the green by a few pennies, as opposed to down nearly 5% (which is how the stocks of P&G and Kimberly-Clark are trading, respectively, as of this writing).
Of course, the fact that P&G came out and supported its guidance doesn't mean that inflation shouldn't be feared. We're still in bad shape in this regard, the bears haven't gone away, and I don't think either P&G or Kimberly-Clark are trading buys. I like both for the longer-term, and in terms of Kimberly-Clark, the yield is attractive. However, in terms of buy-and-hold-and-forget, you can't beat the safe reliability of P&G, whose product portfolio is one of the best out there in the consumer sector. I would imagine that P&G's brand equity is helping it navigate this vicious commodity storm, but don't think it can't weaken in coming quarters.
Disclosure: I don't own any stock mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Well-known maker of peanut-butter and jelly products J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Thursday. The market didn't like the report in the least. The stock closed down well over 8% at the end of yesterday's session.
Here's what happened. For the fourth quarter, net sales increased 20%, but that was little consolation to the bottom line, which dropped 11%, as earnings per diluted share came in at $0.67 versus $0.75 in the year-ago period. The top line also was the beneficiary of some inorganic growth based on acquisitions. If you adjust for certain items, bringing the earnings up to $0.73 per diluted share, the decrease in the bottom line improves to 3%, but a decline in this case is still a decline. Plus, earnings expectations were not met. The company came in five pennies shy of Wall Street's wishes, according to estimates posted at earnings.com.
For the fiscal year, J.M Smucker's top line increased 18%, also due in part to acquisitions. On both a reported and an adjusted basis, earnings per diluted share jumped 9% to $3.00. Margins really suffered during the quarter and the year. Input costs are inflating, and they're becoming difficult to manage.
Procter & Gamble
The company that brings you Ivory Soap, 
Kellogg
Well-known maker of peanut-butter and jelly products 
Before the bell: Wall Street headed higher; automakers, retailers in focus
Waiting for the other shoe to drop: The looming credit crisis
Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)
