For the first half of 2010, almost two thirds of money managers are bullish, according to Barron's. In fact, 54% are bullish, and 5% are "very bullish." Responses suggest that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to gain another 5% by the end of the year.

According to Barron's, "Today's bullish investors see the major stock indexes making steady progress through next June, amid signs the U.S. economy is on the mend after a searing recession."

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

The recession is only over if you ask the right people. While some sectors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, consumers remain concerned. It may be tempting to listen to the experts over the average Joe, but the former don't control 70% of the U.S. economy. So, as long as people are worried abou unemployment (which continues to rise), the levels of debt they carry and whether they're at risk of foreclosure, the recession will live on in the hearts of those who write checks and swipe credit cards.

It's going to get worse before it gets better, according to Stone & McCarthy Research. Early 2010 has "the more troublesome outlook," as the economy will have to walk on its own, the research firm says. This year, it's had a pair of crutches: tax credits for first-time home buyers and the cash-for-clunkers program. So, if the stimulus hasn't taken hold by the end of the year, the first quarter could be a bruiser.

The firm adds that "continued growth in aggregate demand" is needed, bringing the discussion back to consumer spending . . . which is where it will always land. We're likely to see the 3.2% growth rate from July through September drop to 2.4% at the end of the year because the crutches will have been gone. And, let's not forget that unemployment is expected to break the 10% level next year.

Consumer spending may be down, but its share of U.S. economic activity has increased. So, we're now more dependent than before on the average Joe's open wallet to guide us out of the recession. A year ago, consumer spending accounted for 70% of the U.S. economy. Since then, it has edged up to 71%. The long-term average is approximately 65%.

The increase in consumer spending's share of the economy indicates that other sectors fell harder. Business and construction spending on new equipment have constricted at a record rate since 2008. This isn't unusual, though, as consumer spending tends to take a larger piece of the economic pie during downturns.

Consumers are finally spending more, with September posting the first gain in more than a year. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) found that retail sales inched 0.1% higher last month. It doesn't seem like much, but a gain when you anticipate a fall is good news magnified. But, it came at the expense of great deals and other tools to entice somewhat hesitant customers into stores.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) reported sales increases in September for stores open more than a year. J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M) and Target (NYSE: TGT) posted declines, but they were better than expected. Delayed school openings thanks to a late Labor Day helped push to September sales that might have occurred in August otherwise.

Of course, all eyes are on the coming holiday season. The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. consumer spending of $437.6 billion – up only slightly from $433.7 billion four years ago. So, we still have a lot of ground to make up before we can celebrate a recovery. As long as the situation is staying steady, though, we'll at least have a solid starting point.

Consumer debt levels fell again in August for the seventh month in a row. Facing continued instability in the job market, people are paying down their debt, as a way to protect themselves. Savings are up, and borrowing is down – which could weaken the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity in the United States.

Total consumer debt outstanding dropped by $12 billion in August, according to the Federal Reserve, reflecting an annualized rate of 5.8%. Reality outpaced Wall Street's expectations, which were around $10 billion. In July, consumer debt outstanding fell $19 billion (9.1%), which was the largest in hard-dollar terms since 1943 and on a percentage basis since June 1975's 16.3%.

While consumer fear is playing a significant role, as a touchy housing market and dicey job situation leave little to lean on, the banks are also responsible for the change in direction. They aren't lending as easily, with stricter standards limiting the amount of credit available to consumers. You can't spend what you can't borrow.

If you are wondering why there was no growth in the economy last month, here are some reasons. Personal income fell 1.3% in June.

We had a small kick to the upside in May when the one-time stimulus payments were used. May's gain was 1.4%. According to a Bloomberg survey, incomes were predicted to fall 1%. Now, all of that has evaporated. The consumer is pretty much tapped out again.

Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. Retail sales for June were up 0.6% - substantially better than the 0.4% anticipated – with the gas prices leading the charge. A slight tip in the brutalized auto manufacturer sector helped, as well. This was the largest retail sales increase in five months.

Gas stations benefited from the cost of fuel, adding a bit of pep to a beleaguered retail industry: sales were up 5% year over year, after doing the same in May. And, car dealers had their best month since January: the sales of cars and parts climbed 2.3%. Nonetheless, this corner of the retail world is still off 14.5% from last year. It may have helped last month, but we're still pretty far from a cure.

Paul Foster says that options activity in salon company Regis Corporation (NYSE: RGS) indicates the stock is likely to have non-directional price movements over the short-term, following the company's announcement of a stock and debt offering. That could very well be true, but I think the short-term is overanalyzed, and the long-term story here is much clearer -- and Regis offers two important lessons about how to better-analyze the financing and operations of a company.

I was first introduced to Regis about a year ago, when the stock was part of a portfolio of about 35 positions I inherited responsibility for. As I went through the holdings and segmented them out into categories of attractiveness, Regis was consistently ranked near the bottom. The industry itself was unattractive, and the way the company implemented its strategy seemed to leave it particularly vulnerable to adverse financial markets.