As Joe Lazzaro posted earlier, economists expect the bad times to continue through next year, according to a survey by Bloomberg News.

Here are the low lights:

• The economy will grow at an average 0.7% from July through December, half the gain in the first six months of the year;
• Household spending, which has grown every quarter since 1992, is projected to stall as the impact of the tax rebates fades;
• The jobless rate, now at 5.7 percent, will reach a five-year high of 6 percent in early 2009.

The question is how is this going to play politically.

Will the Democrats use this data to push for a second stimulus bill? Will growing political tensions between Russia and Georgia push up oil prices higher and make matters even worse for consumers? What about the Fed? Will it have to begin raising interest rates? When will the housing market hit bottom?

Only the most cockeyed of optimists can see a light at the end of this tunnel.

Inflation is roaring to levels not seen since 1981. The not-so-surprising result is that at 0.8%, according to Bloomberg News, the inflation gobbled up much of the stimulus checks that went out to consumers earlier in the year.

Economists had forecast spending would rise 0.4%, after an originally reported 0.8% increase in May -- the actual result was 0.6%. That should not have surprised policy makers. When you cut interest rates from 5.25% to 2% and then run record deficits, you are just asking for inflation. And that's what the economy delivered.

But isn't it the job of the Fed to keep inflation from getting out of control? Yes. And that's just what Paul Volcker tried to cure in the early 1980s after a decade of stagflation. He raised the Fed Funds rate to nearly 20% and that broke the inflation rate that peaked the last time it was as rampant as it was last month. And it sparked an 18 year stock market rally that took the Dow from 800 to 11,500.

The unemployment rate is a relatively modest 5.5%. But that's because companies have figured out how to convert full-time employees who have benefits like health care into part-time ones who lack benefits and whose hours can be cut back at will. This is a great deal for companies and a lousy one for workers. And it is ultimately bad for investors.

The New York Times reports that 3.7 million Americans have seen their full-time jobs cut to part-time ones -- the highest number on record (the government started keeping track of this over 50 years ago). This record joins a host of others we've seen this year: record gasoline prices (over $4 a gallon), record Federal budget deficits ($490 billion for 2009), record Federal borrowing ($9.8 trillion soon to hit $10.6 trillion), a record decline in housing prices (15.8%), and a record weak dollar (down 71% to $1.5757 since January 2001 when one euro bought 92 cents).

The newly minted part-time workers are largely Hispanic men. Specifically, the Times points out that 73% of those who were forced into part-time work from the spring of 2007 to the spring of 2008 were men and 35% percent were Hispanic. The industries with the most part-time jobs were construction (28%), retail (14%) and professional and business services (13%).

The Times brings the part-time statistics to life with interviews. Here are two:

Disproving reports that its growth days are behind it, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) today reported quarterly results that far exceeded Wall Street estimates.

Net income at the No.1 e-tailer more than doubled to $158 million, or 37 cents a share, up from $78 million or 19 cents per share. Revenue jumped 41% to $4.06 billion. The New York Times noted that analysts had expected a 26 cent profit on sales of $3.96 billion. The results, though, were not good enough for Wall Street, and investors sent Amazon's shares tumbling in after-hours trading.

One reason for the thumbs down may be that the company's gross margins -- always a concern with investors -- contracted slightly. The company also maintained its revenue forecast for the current period. Maybe investors were expecting the company to boost earnings guidance as it benefits from shoppers bypassing malls and spending on gasoline in favor of shopping at home.

Skeptics, including me, have underestimated the company. Soleil Securities analyst Scott Tilghman told Bloomberg News that "There's a misperception out there that e-commerce is much more mature than it actually is. They (Amazon) offer one-stop shopping and often better prices than bricks-and-mortar stores, which should offset any slowdown in consumer spending."

Looks like he may have a point.

[July 24 UPDATE: Amazon shares soar after Chief Executive Jeff Bezos' bullish comments. The shares were little changed at first until Bezos said on the earnings conference call that the company was benefiting from consumers avoiding driving to brick-and-mortar stores because of concerns about high gas prices. Shares are up over 15% by early afternoon Thursday.]

The week got off to a shaky start in the wake of several earnings disappointments, thus a lot of attention will be paid to Amazon (NASDQ: AMZN) when it reports its second quarter numbers this afternoon after the market closes.

Analysts are looking to see Amazon show earnings of 26 cents per share, and revenue of $3.96 billion. The last time that the company reported earnings was April 23, when be itat analysts' estimates by 2 pennies, with a reported 34 cents per share for its first quarter.

It has definitely been a tough couple of months for retailers, but we could see some strength in Amazon as a result of changes it made during the quarter which allows users to shop the store from their cell phones via its new service TextBuyIt.

Europe is not exactly a growth market for most US companies. The economy there is slowing much as it is in America. But, McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) may be an exception. According to Bloomberg, "McDonald's Corp., the world's largest restaurant company, may report a second-quarter profit after European sales rose twice as fast as in the U.S."

The news is unusually good because rising commodities prices are likely to squeeze the fast food company's margins. The costs of bread and meat have been up sharply over the last year.

Europe seems an unlikely savior for McDonald's numbers. It is often viewed as a region where good food and traditional cuisine are part of the culture. Who wants a hamburger from a fast food place when the local restaurant has crepe suzette?

But fast food, filled with fat and salt, is irresistible. McDonald's has proved that in every country where it does business.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

As a sign of how disconnected one can be, I had to ask my 12-year old about Steve & Barry's. I had not heard of it and it is receiving way too many comments on our site to be ignored. My colleague Zac Bissonnette started blogging about it a month ago Steve & Barry's on the brink of bankruptcy? and the comments are still coming in strong as the story progressed.

Steve & Barry's filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 9, 2008, and information about its status and answers to frequently asked questions can be found here.

The company has been expanding rapidly and clearly hit a brick wall with consumer budgets severely strained and the economy facing uncertainty in the short term. However, this is supposed to be a discount chain. Perhaps the discounting amounted to selling dollars for ninety cents, and it could not make it up on volume.

This is a relatively small company, but clearly it matters to a lot of people. The number of comments we have received has surpassed most of our recent stories, even those of the Bear Stearns takeover (acquired by JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM)) and the IndyMac (NYSE: IDMC) collapse.

Steve & Barry's might have had an IPO sometime in its future, but that is not likely in the current environment. What is it that makes this story so compelling to our readers? If it is because the stores are so great, what went wrong in your neighborhood?

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of any of JPM.

As each day passes, estimates for how bad Q2 earnings will be grows. According to The Wall Street Journal, "analysts estimate S&P 500 operating earnings -- income excluding one-time items -- fell 11.5% in the second quarter."

While the paper points out that earnings often come in a bit worse than expected, this quarter could be a bit different. Everyone expected the numbers to be bad in sectors including banking, brokerage, insurance, autos, and airlines. But the real question is whether business and consumer spending have been hit harder than predicted.

If spending is down, even companies which are expected to do fairly well such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) could face rough earnings reports as big business and the little consumers defer purchases which they feel they cannot afford. That means that tech earnings, which were expected to be OK, could take a big hit.

If tech falters, what is left? Energy and commodities companies? Perhaps, but that is thin ground on which to build an earnings season.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

It's been brewing ever so slowly, but AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) has finally been able to show the results of its efforts. Shares of AnnTaylor soared about 13% today after the women's apparel chain raised its first-quarter earnings forecast.

The company said that better-than-expected results at its LOFT stores as well as lower inventories and better expense management overall contributed to the results. Yes, surprising investors is always good, but it's also always good to remain a little cautious with such news. The company itself warned about the rest of the year, leaving its full-year forecast unchanged.

Of course, the question is what's ahead for AnnTaylor. One answer already came today from the company when it said it would shelve a new store concept targeting baby boomers. But following the success of LOFT, the retailer is aggressively launching an outlet version of the brand. Is it smart? It certainly seems that in the current economic climate increasing lower-priced offerings would allow AnnTaylor to keep cash-strapped customers while offering them budget clothes in a familiar brand.

Credit cards ... the little plastic cards in your wallet that are so convenient to rely on when you are strapped for cash. While the convenience of having cards definitely makes it easier to buy items when you are running low on cash, the flip side is that credit card debt can drown the typical household, and statistics are showing that Americans are pulling out their cards more than before.

One of the reasons why credit card usage has been on the rise is the fact that homeowners are having a harder time using home equity to get a cash infusion into their accounts. As a result, they are looking to borrow money from somewhere, and more times than not, they are turning to credit cards.

The evil with credit cards is that once you start to use them to pay for your basic necessities like food and gas, you find that in the months to come you still can't afford your basic needs but in addition, your monthly bills are racking up like crazy due to your credit card expenses. It's a scary cycle that many families find themselves trapped in.

Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) recently said that it would scale back its plans for opening new locations in the U.S. in 2008 and for the next few years, citing a "squeeze-play on consumers." Instead of the announced 90 new stores this year, Kohl's now expects to open 70 to 75 new stores this year. The retailer is still on track to open its 1,000th store later in 2008, however.

Although the "mall store outside the mall" has identified about 400 sites for potential locations in the near future, it said that kind of expansion may not happen until 2014. Last year, the retailer opened 112 stores nationwide, ending up with a total of 943 stores total in 57 states.

Kohl's is right when it said that its customers are "under a lot of pressure" due to higher fuel, grocery and health care costs. The good news, from what I have seen in the past, is that Kohl's has very low prices for much of its "Croft & Barrow" apparel items, its private-label brand. If it can fight the good fight with Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) in terms of prices and clothing selection, it may yet have decent sales on those items as expensive housewares and related items sink this year.

Consumers these days are so lacking in confidence that all the therapy in the world probably couldn't help them. The housing market is in a tailspin, commodities are soaring and gas prices are nearing $4 a gallon. It is against this backdrop that Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) reported better-than-expected first quarter results.

Profit rose to $2.71 billion, or 82 cents per share, compared with $2.51 billion, or 74 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue rose 9% to $20.46 billion from $18.69 billion last year. The Cincinnati-based company was expected to earn 81 cents on revenue of $21.44 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

"P&G delivered strong results in-line with long-term targets in a challenging economic and competitive environment with broad-based sales and share growth, earnings growth and overhead cost improvement," said Chief Executive AG Lafley in the earnings release.

Shares of the maker of Tide (my favorite detergent) and Pampers (our family's preferred diaper for my son) have slumped more than 10% this year under-performing rivals including Church & Dwight Co. (NYSE: CHD) and Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL). Uniliver Plc. (NYSE: UL) has fared slightly worse than P&G.

Economic forecasters and analysts are beginning to give in to recession language, with 51% of respondents to a poll conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) indicating they believe that a stalled economy is where we may be headed. An Associated Press report indicates that 70% of all survey respondents feel the economy shall grow 3% or less in the first half of this year. A whopping 30% of respondents indicated they feel the economy shall actually contract.

Associated Press stated, "The majority of forecasters polled -- 51 percent -- thought the economic growth during the first half of this year would clock in between zero and 1 percent, which would still mark a feeble showing. Sixteen percent pegged growth in the first half at between 1 and 2 percent, while only three percent put it at between 2 and 3 percent."

The question is whether or not consumers and their discretionary incomes shall tip the economic balance into classically defined recession. While inflation has a greater portion of personal incomes being utilized for the necessities of life, these days it's generally the optional "extras" that stimulate economic growth numbers. Recreational electronics, home entertainment devices, and items of fad and fashion make up the bulk of growth industries today. To what extent will they bear up and in what measure will they support domestic economy?

Your guess is as good as mine...

Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger and former sole proprietor of a thriving retail establishment.

With recession fears, housing market worries and high gasoline prices, retailers have been facing tough times and so have luxury car dealers. March proved another tough month for carmakers, with overall U.S. sales declining after the weakening economy put a curb on consumer spending.

Amid the challenging market conditions, even the rich are joining the general anxiety. With the dollar losing ground each day it is difficult to know how much your savings are valued at any more. Then, a simple question appears "Can I afford to buy a luxury car?" It seems like not too many gave a positive answer as most luxury car brands faced sales declines last month.

Sales for BMW fell 8.7%, while Lexus saw a plunge in sales of 13.6%. And even Mercedes-Benz was down nearly 4 percent. Overall luxury vehicle sales fell almost 13% compared with the same month last year, according to Autodata.

Despite the fact that Ruby Tuesday Incoroprated (NYSE: RT) serves up a mean burger, consumers continue to sit at home digesting more and more negative economic news. The company recently released third quarter (3Q) 2008 earnings that take away the appetite. 3Q 2008 net income was $11.7 million or $0.23 EPS, compared to 3Q 2007 net income of $28.7 million or $0.49 EPS. Same location sales declined 12-13%. Company expansion was flat with 6 new locations replacing 6 closed locations.

To be fair, some of the decline in customer traffic was due to a company-wide remodel of many locations. The company spent $25 million in 3Q updating its facilities and its menu, with plans to double that amount in the coming year in order to help Ruby Tuesday stand out from its bar and grill competition. Let's hope the remodel woos customers back into its restaurants. The company is renegotiating its existing debt covenants, and controlling advertising expenditures and other costs. CEO Sandy Beall hopes these initiatives will "set the stage for future profits."

FY 2008 guidance is not encouraging. The company expects sales to continue to decline 9-10%, leading to diluted EPS in the $0.40-$0.50 range. The stock jumped 5% on Thursday when 3Q earnings per share (EPS) beat estimates by $0.05, but has since dropped off 2% to trade at just around $8 per share.