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Options Update: Freeport-McMoRan Calls Active as Shares Rally on Copper Runup

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed up 5.1% to $54.96. Copper prices were up 2.84%, according to Bloomberg, on expectations demand will outpace supply. April and May 55 calls are active. Overall option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average of 43, according to Track Data. Active options volume suggests a probability for larger standard deviation movement.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) closed up 2.6% to $36.46. as silver rallied 2.4% to $37.17 according to Bloomberg. April 37 and 40 calls are active, suggesting hedging for price movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Should Freeport Pursue Lundin Mining?

Freeport McMoran Copper (FCX) is a miner of copper, gold and molybdenum. It has operations in North and South America, Indonesia and Africa, and competes with other miners such as the Southern Copper (SCCO), Codelco and Newmont Mining (NEM).

Continue reading Should Freeport Pursue Lundin Mining?

Copper Sets Record $10,000 a Metric Ton

copper manufactureThe world is screaming for copper. Demand from China, the U.S. and Europe is pushing prices to all-time highs. London copper traded at $10,000 a metric ton. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper hit $.4.58 a pound, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

Traders are looking for "five dollar copper," which would push London's price to $11,000 per metric ton. Goldman Sachs (GS) forecasts that copper will average $10,230 a metric ton in 2011, up 15%. It warned that new mine capacity will not come to market for at least two years.

Continue reading Copper Sets Record $10,000 a Metric Ton

Freeport-McMoRan's Forecast Overshadows Strong Quarter

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) logoWith the surge in copper prices -- and other industrial and precious metals -- it was no surprise that Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) had a great quarter. Net income rose 60% to $1.55 billion or $3.25 per share. Excluding a $0.01 charge, the earnings handily beat the consensus of $3.03. As for the top line, revenues increased 22% to $5.6 billion. The Street estimate was for $5.47 billion.

Despite all this, the stock was off nearly 6% early Thursday. No doubt, one reason is that it has had a strong run over the past few months and the valuation was getting overextended.

Continue reading Freeport-McMoRan's Forecast Overshadows Strong Quarter

Newmont Mining: Take Advantage of the Bull Market in Copper

Newmont Mining logoNewmont Mining (NEM), first discussed here on June 3, 2009, at a price of $46.42, retreated slightly in late 2010 after pushing through $65, but that may be viewed as opportunity to consider the shares, if you missed the June 2009 entry point.

Newmont has the right commodities for globalization's third decade: copper and gold. However, it's not a stock for squeamish or low-risk investors: Newmont's stock practically defines uptrend volatility. Therefore, if you're looking for a steady, predictable, staircase north, it's probably best to skip NEM.

Continue reading Newmont Mining: Take Advantage of the Bull Market in Copper

Palladium: Best Performer of 2010, Hits Nine-Year High

Looking back can be painful, especially if you missed the biggest bull move of the year. The star performer was palladium, which is used in catalytic converters. The metal rallied 95% during 2010, according to the Financial Times.

One major reason for the jump was the belief that Russia has exhausted its stockpiles of palladium that they had accumulated during the Cold War. The big metals trader, Johnson Matthey, said that palladium could swing into a "serious deficit" if sales from the Russian government diminish.

On the futures market, March palladium touched $800 per ounce. Some analysts are forecasting $1,000 per ounce in 2011.

Continue reading Palladium: Best Performer of 2010, Hits Nine-Year High

Single Trader Dominates Copper in London Metals Exchange

copperOver the years there have been some strange goings on in the commodity markets. One episode that comes to mind is the attempt by the Hunt brothers of Texas to corner the silver market in the 1970s.

Now we have another strange occurrence. The Financial Times reported that one trader holds 80% to 90% of the copper in the London Metals Exchange (LME) warehouses, valued at about $3 billion. We do know that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is a big player in the copper market. Whether JPMorgan increased its holdings is not known.

Continue reading Single Trader Dominates Copper in London Metals Exchange

Copper Sets New Record High

Copper productionOver the years copper has taken a back seat to the flashier metals like gold and silver. Now the tables are turning and copper is in the spotlight. This will probably the biggest commodity story of 2011,

The Financial Times reports that copper demand will outstrip supply by 500,000 tons -- compared with 350,000 tons of inventory at the London Metals Exchange (LME.)

Continue reading Copper Sets New Record High

Copper Gains Glamour as Hedge

copperA change is taking place in the world of commodity metals, and that change is now being accelerated by none other than JPMorgan Chase (JPM). News reports are indicating that Chase has purchased up to 50% of all the London Metals Exchange warehoused copper. It is interesting, yes, but what does this mean when viewing the big picture?

It would seem that the intrinsic wisdom of "physically holding" commodity metals is finally being realized. Copper, for all its earthy commonality and utility, holds great sway over the economies of the world. Copper is a near universal necessity in the movement of electricity, water, and a host of pressurized gasses. Without immediately available copper, life as we know it would most probably come to a sudden, screeching halt.

Continue reading Copper Gains Glamour as Hedge

JPMorgan Buys 50% of London Copper Stocks

Over the past couple of weeks, a mystery trader purchased more than 50% of all the copper stocks on the London Metals Exchange, valued at over $1 billion. There were rumors that whoever it was is trying to corner the copper market.

As it happens the mystery bank is JPMorgan Chase (JPM), The Wall Street Journal reported, citing The London Daily Telegraph. The bank bought some of the copper for clients. But the bank owns a large chunk, estimated at 175,000 metric tons.

Continue reading JPMorgan Buys 50% of London Copper Stocks

Kooi Forecasts Gold to Rise to $2,200 per Ounce

Gold keeps powering to new record highs amid a battery of speculations. Mari Kooi, CEO of Wolf Asset Management International LLC, sees gold rising 64% to $2,200 per ounce, Bloomberg reported.

If we look for a key reason for the gold rally, the most obvious one is the weak U.S. dollar. Kooi believes the dollar will fall another 20% within the next 12 months. A falling dollar will spark higher commodity prices and create inflation.

The dollar "will fall as people perceive that the Fed will do anything to fuel growth," Kooi told Bloomberg. "Commodities are going to be a hot thing."

Continue reading Kooi Forecasts Gold to Rise to $2,200 per Ounce

Goldman Sachs Forecasts $11,000 a Ton for Copper

copperFirst off we should distinguish between precious metals and base metals. Copper and zinc fall in the category of base metals. Base metals are used in construction and products. So copper and zinc are more a supply-and-demand play than precious metals. The prices of base metals move almost in lock-step to basic supply.

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) has an international division that specializes in commodities. Much of the data comes from London, which is a hub for commodities trading. The London Metals Exchange (LME) is where this trading takes place. Traders like Goldman can monitor trading and inventories at the LME and run estimates of supply and demand based on trading activity, both on and off exchanges.

Continue reading Goldman Sachs Forecasts $11,000 a Ton for Copper

Why Go Long on Copper?

copperI'm betting on a substantial rise in copper prices. It seems like a sure bet to me. As global manufacturing interests are attempting to excite production and governments are attempting to re-energize consumerism, warehouse supplies of copper have been declining.

Yet, this alone is not what piques my interest. Two other significant factors are converging with a reduced copper stockpile, creating what I see as an undeniable, medium-term investment opportunity.

Continue reading Why Go Long on Copper?

Options Update: Freeport McMoRan Volatility Flat as Shares Rally

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed up $1.52 to $84.51. Copper prices closed up 2.54% according to Bloomberg. Overall option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Sears Holding Corporation (SHLD) closed up $3.62 to $71.77. SHLD October call option implied volatility is at 38, puts are at 54. This is versus its 26 week average of 42, according to Track Data. Active volume suggesting larger price movement. Puts are trading higher than calls on SHLD being difficult to borrow.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Tin Prices Soar to Over $20,000 per Ton

Why has the price of tin jumped in recent weeks? The economic rebound in Japan and parts of Europe has spurred increased demand for the commodity. Tin is used for soldering, especially in electronics. Inventories are down 50%.

The increased demand has come with falling production, especially in Indonesia, the world's largest producer. Tin prices have risen 30% in two months. On the London Metals Exchange (LME), tin traded as high as $20,750 per ton. This is the highest level since August 2008.

Continue reading Tin Prices Soar to Over $20,000 per Ton

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 12:32 PM

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