Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) is realizing that many of its customers are still living on hard times these days, even the news that the economy is rebounding. That doesn't mean lost jobs will pop back any time soon, and as such, the wholesale retailer will be accepting food stamps at all of its U.S. locations.

Wall Street is cheering the latest earnings report from Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), with the shares adding more than 3% within the first hour of trading. This morning, as Tom Johansmeyer reported, the wholesale club reported a 6% slide in fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, but the results nevertheless exceeded analysts' expectations.

In the wake of COST's report, analyst Brian Sozzi of Wall Street Strategies reiterated his Buy rating and $66 price target on the equity. "In our view, 4Q09 will go a long way in supporting a higher valuation for Costco," wrote Sozzi in a research note this morning. "The company has managed to control costs, drive traffic to its warehouses consistently throughout the economic downturn, paid $300 million in annual dividends in FY09 (payout ratio of 26.0% second to only Wal-Mart in the sector), and has catalysts on the horizon to showcase earnings power above currently modeled for consensus EPS."

Costco's (NASDAQ: COST) profits are off 6% for its fiscal fourth quarter. A stronger dollar and increased employee benefits costs are cited as the reasons. Nonetheless, the retailer did beat analyst expectations.

The company, which operates warehouse clubs, pulled in earnings of $374 million (85 cents per share) for the quarter ending August 30, 2009. While this is down from $398 million (90 cents per share) a year earlier, it was good enough to top the 77 cents per share that analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast.

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST - option chain) stock is dropping today after the company reported a third-quarter profit of $209.6 million or 48 cents per share. Analysts were looking for a profit of 53 cents per share. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on COST.

This morning, COST opened at $47.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $46.54 and a high of $48.91. As of 11:40, COST is trading at $47.81, down $1.02 (-2.1%). The chart for COST looks neutral and S&P gives COST a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

In troubled economic times, it seems like a no-brainer that discount retailers will fare better than their mid-market competitors. Of the discount group, Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) garners extra points for its brand recognition, broad geographic reach, and dedication to its customers.

Speaking of customer service, I recall being mildly shocked earlier this year upon reading this BusinessWeek article, which alleges that Costco often chooses to cater to its customer base rather than pleasing its investors. Amid skyrocketing commodity costs in July, the mega-retailer warned of a quarterly earnings shortfall, because of a reluctance to hike its own prices and potentially alienate its customer base.

I'm no CEO, but to my mind, the happiness of Costco's investors is directly pegged to how satisfied its customers are. If shoppers are turned off by price increases and take their business over to, say, Sam's Club -- what have the investors won? It takes a clear-headed management team to consider the long-term effects on its core customer base over the short-term demands of frustrated traders.

"While many firms are struggling to survive, a lucky minority are built to weather the storm better," says growth stock specialist Karim Rahemtulla. In Xcelerated Profits Report, he eyes Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST).

"Thanks to rising inflation and unemployment, coupled with a beaten-up economy, many retailers are braced for a harsh new reality this holiday season.

"Consumers have much tighter budgets and are cutting back on whatever they can. And that's where some 'one-stop' retailers like Costco can really take advantage.

"Although customers are more likely to avoid the electronics and other non-necessity stocking sections of the store these days, they still need to eat.

"So while other non-food departments are seeing a sales slowdown, Goldman Sachs recently reported that Costco is likely to enjoy strong food sales, which offset that.

"Goldman also noted that Costco boasts a strong balance sheet, with almost $3.3 billion in cash on the books, plus ample liquidity - factors that could encourage management to implement a stock buyback program.

"Compared to other retailers who are flat-out dreading this holiday season, that puts Costco in a strong position.

"And because the store has such a diverse range of products, all under one roof and available at bargain prices, Costco is one firm better prepared to ride out what could be a brutal season for retailers."

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"I've always been a big fan of putting into the market on a regular basis regardless of what is happening in the overall market," explains Chuck Carlson, long considered one of the advisory industry's leading experts on dividend reinvestment plans.

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Carlson says, "If I've learned anything in the more than a quarter of a century of following the markets, it is this fact - buying stocks when you know you should (i.e. during sharp down moves) is really difficult. Our heads says we should; after all, substantial market downturns create the best values.

"But our emotions usually take control, thus making it very difficult to pull the trigger and put money into the market when stocks are falling.

"That's why I've always been a big fan of 401(k) plans. With these investment vehicles, investment programs are put on 'autopilot,' with dollars being put into the market on a regular basis (usually each paycheck) regardless of what is happening in the overall market.

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Bloomberg News reports that Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) saw big sales increases in July thanks to $4 gas, while more upscale retailers, such as The Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), lost business. The stock market is responding to the change and so far this year, Wal-Mart shares are up 27.8% but Costco's have fallen 5.8% (thanks to a profit squeeze due to its gasoline costs rising faster than the price it charges consumers). Limited stock has lost 10.8% during that time.

The details are worth knowing. Wal-Mart sales at stores open at least a year gained 3% while Costco's climbed 10%. Limited, the owner of the Victoria's Secret lingerie chain suffered a 5% decline. But Wal-Mart's results -- while strong -- were disappointing to investors who expected 3.4% growth. What is driving this increasing budget-consciousness? The beginning of back-to-school shopping, the suspension of sales taxes in some states, $4 a gallon gas, 9.6% inflation and seven months of job losses are all combining to push shoppers to discounters and away from pricier retail outlets.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) warned Tuesday that profit for the quarter ending in August would be "well below expectations." That statement comes as a surprise. The company that should be benefiting greatly from customers buying in bulk and "trading down" to lower-priced goods, issues lower guidance in the thick of a depressed U.S. economy.

The wholesaler said that analyst estimates of a $1 per share profit would not be met, and then quickly talked about how rising energy prices would be to blame. Costco kept its prices steady even as its own costs have risen. It also experienced diminished profit in gasoline sales. The good news is that Costco's same-store sales have not trended downward recently. The company is still making a healthy profit, but the question is why it is holding many prices steady even as costs and transportation backend prices rise?

One answer is Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and its Sam's Club operations. While in a Sam's Club just this past weekend to check out prices, I was amazed to see that once inside the store, any semblance to a credit, mortgage and credit crisis was gone. Prices were lower than ever on many items, and Wal-Mart faces the same kind of financial cost pressures as its competitors. It can afford to keep prices lower even through tough times, though. Costco has to keep up, and as a result, its profits will take a hit.

The Associated Press reports that a "Depression Era" mentality is taking hold among consumers. This matters to the overall economy since 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth depends on consumer spending. Maybe this is good news because it will make people care more about spiritual matters, and less about material ones.

AP bolsters its consumer mentality shift with excerpts from a Nielsen survey that interviewed 50,000 consumers by e-mail during the first week of June. The survey found that

• 63% of consumers are cutting spending due to rising gas prices, up 18 percentage points from a year ago;
• 78% of consumers are combining shopping trips;
• 52% are eating out less often;
• Consumers are cutting more coupons;
• They do more of their shopping at super centers; and
• They buy less expensive brands.
  

"Finding its way onto the short-term bullish list is discount retailer Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), our 'focus stock of the week'," says Chris Johnson in his contrarian advisor service, Insightful Investor.

"The warehouse giant is currently seeing a positive mix of technical strength along with growing pessimism that makes it a potential outperformer. Costco is one company that has maintained a level of demand not seen throughout the bulk of the retailing sector.

"COST's core business, which caters to small businesses and households willing to buy in bulk, has maintained strength despite the slowing economy. In fact, the company's latest earnings report, released March 5, beat analyst expectations by 23%.

"Reflective of its fundamental strength, COST's stock price has remained a relative strength leader by trading above its 50-day moving average. The equity has outperformed not only most of its peers in the retail group, but the overall market as well.

With recession fears, housing market worries and credit concerns, retailers have been facing tough times, especially during the holiday winter season of December and January when sales came with weak numbers. But on the heels of these disappointing results, retailers got a beam of hope as February's sales numbers showed a surprising increase.

Encouraging news for retailers showing a rebound in consumer spending during the past month came after world's largest retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced a rise of 2.6% for its February same-store sales. The company said that its same-store sales during the period were helped by strong gains from gas, food and flat-panel TVs. Analysts were expecting the retailer show an increase of 1.1% for its same-store sales, according to Thomson Financial.

Among other retailers that showed a rebound in February sales were Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), both of which reported stronger-than-expected gains. Apparel retailers Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) also reported earnings results exceeding estimates of 6% sales growth last month.

For Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), though, February didn't come with positive results. The company stated that higher energy and food prices put pressure on consumers who focused on necessities.

Eliza Popescu is a financial writer for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

Shares of warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) are lower this morning, despite posting an increase of 31% in its fiscal second-quarter profit.

For the quarter, the largest U.S. wholesale club reported that its profit surged to $327.9 million, compared with $249.5 million in the same period a year ago. Last-year earnings included $53.4 million related to non-recurring charges. Higher gasoline prices boosted the company's profit in the quarter and Costco posted earnings of 74 cents per share, which was in line with analysts' forecasts.

Costco also announced a respectable 12% increase in revenues, to $16.62 billion, up from $14.80 billion a year earlier. Analysts were expecting the company to show $16.85 billion in revenue, according to Thomson Financial.