Cigna (NYSE: CI) shares are falling today after competitor Coventry Health Care (NYSE: CVH) lowered its fiscal 2008 earnings forecast to a range between $3.65 and $3.75 for the year, well below the $4.43 per share expected by analysts. Investors are really punishing CVH today and the stock is down 22% currently. Cigna is getting caught in the crossfire as investors worry that similar stocks may also disappoint come earnings time. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CI.

After hitting a one-year high of $56.98 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $36.75 in March. This morning, CI opened at $38.24. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.28 and a high of $38.34. As of 12:15, CI is trading at $36.86, down 2.84 (-7.1%). The chart for CI looked neutral and improving until today's drop, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $45 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in four months as long as CI is below $45 at October expiration. Cigna would have to rise by more than 19% before we would start to lose money.

CI hasn't been above $45 since February and has shown resistance around $42 recently. This trade could be risky if legislation that hurts health insurance companies fails to make it through the government, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance CI might find at its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $42 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CI, CVH, or AET.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Merck (MRK), McMoRan Exploration (MMR), TheStreet.com (TSCM), Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) and Coventry Health (CVH) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Cowen is optimistic on Merck's (NYSE: MRK) business momentum, key products, and pipeline, and upgraded the pharmaceutical giant to Outperform from Neutral.

• JP Morgan believes the recent discoveries have created a lower risk profile for McMoRan Exploration (NYSE: MMR), upgrading shares to Overweight from Neutral.

• Needham upgraded shares of TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) to Strong Buy from Buy on the Corsis acquisition as they believe the deal strengthens the company's advertising business.

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Goodrich Petroleum (NYSE: GDP) to Buy from Underperform as they believe success at the James Lime development program will grow production and cash flow.

• Banc of America upgraded Coventry Health (NYSE: CVH) to Neutral from Sell as they believe the company's three recent acquisitions will accelerate growth beginning next year...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• WestLB upgraded Nokia (NYSE: NOK) to Buy from Add.

• Bear Stearns upgraded Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) to Peer Perform from Underperform and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to Outperform from Peer Perform.

• Citigroup raised AnnTaylor Stores (NYSE: ANN) to Hold from Sell.

• Buckingham upgraded DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) to Neutral from Underperform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The more noteworthy downgrades today included eFunds Corp (EFD), Halliburton Co (HAL), Coventry Health Care, Inc (CVH), Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG) and US Steel Corp (X):

• Citigroup downgraded shares of eFunds Corp (NYSE: EFD) to Sell from Hold to reflect an unfavorable risk/reward as they see little upside if the company sells itself and significant downside due to recent operational issues if the company is not sold.

• Goldman cut Halliburton Co (NYSE: HAL) to Neutral from Buy based on valuation.

• Bear Stearns cut Coventry Health (NYSE: CVH) to Peer Perform from Outperform based on valuation.

• BMO Capital downgraded Fording Canadian Coal Trust (NYSE: CFG) to Underperform from Market Perform on valuation...

• UBS cut US Steel Group (NYSE: X) to Reduce from Neutral based on valuation.
  

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman downgraded the coal sector, citing the potential for fundamentals to disappoint. The firm downgraded Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Sell from Buy, Foundation Coal Holdings (NYSE: FCL) to Sell from Neutral, and Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR) to Neutral from Buy.

• Matrix cut CBRL Group (NASDAQ: CBRL) to Sell from Hold.

• CE Unterberg downgraded Atheros Communications (NASDAQ: ATHR) to Market Perform from Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Coventry Health Care (NYSE:CVH) opened today at $52.85. So far, the stock has hit a low of $52.55 and a high of $54.01. As of 10:07 this morning, CVH was trading at $52.66,down $0.85 (-1.59%) on heavy volume.

After hitting a one year high of $61.88 on February 9, 2006, the stock worked its way down to a low of $44.33 on November 21, 2006. In an earnings report this morning the company said said fourth-quarter earnings grew 24 percent, lifted by higher health plan membership and earnings from the Medicare Part D plan. Coventry also expects a charge for debt refinancing in the first quarter.The technicals for CVH have been strong and S&P gives the company a its highest 5 STAR (out of 5) strong buy rating with a current 12-Month target price of $62.

For a bullish hedged play on Coventry Health Care, I would consider a March bull-put credit spread below the $50 level.

Vic Schiller is an analyst on the move at Investors Observer. (Free Subscription)

DISCLOSURE NOTE: Mr. Schiller owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.