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Covidien: Time to Take Some Profits?

Medical device supplier Covidien Ltd. (COV), first discussed here on June 4, 2009 at a price of $35.65, continues to vector higher, taking out major, psychological resistance at $50 with ease.

Hence, if you haven't already, it's probably a good idea to to consider taking some profits off the table, if you're in at/near $35.65 with COV. Even so, those investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position and go for an even bigger gain, as COV will likely test $60 in 2011.

Covidien's 2011 revenue will likely rise 6-8% in 2011, after a 4-6% growth rate in 2010, boosted by cost cuts and a prudent restructuring plan designed to concentrate on medical devices and imaging solutions. An emphasis on higher-margin devices adds to the positive story.

Continue reading Covidien: Time to Take Some Profits?

Covidien Is in an Uptrend

The rally in the shares of medical device supplier Covidien (COV), which I first discussed here on June 4, 2009 at a price of $35.65, continued this autumn, with the shares winding their way toward $50.

Moreover, given the impressive 35% rise since the summer, those who bought in at roughly that $35 level may wish to consider taking some profits off the table. Even so, those investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position and go for an even bigger gain, as COV will likely test $55 in 2011.

Continue reading Covidien Is in an Uptrend

Covidien's Shares Appear to Be on the Mend

If you managed to take advantage of medical device supplier Covidien Ltd.'s (COV) dip, as noted in May, it proved to be a prudent move. Covidien, first discussed here on June 4, 2009 at a price of $35.65, appears to have found support at $35, and has recently moved back above $40.

Covidien's 2011 revenue will likely increase 6-8% in 2011, after a 4-6% growth rate in 2010. Further, cost cuts and a prudent restructuring plan designed to concentrate on medical devices and imaging solutions will aid the bottom line. An emphasis on higher-margin devices adds to the positive story.

Continue reading Covidien's Shares Appear to Be on the Mend

Covidien: A Bargain at This Level?

The shares of medical device supplier Covidien Ltd. (COV), which I first wrote about on June 4, 2009 at a price of $35.65, have recently retreated far more than they should have (to about $41), given the company's 2010/2011 revenue outlook, and COV is obviously still favored here.

Look for Covidien's 2010 revenue to increase 3-5% in 2010, and 4-7% in 2011, boosted by cost cuts and a prudent restructuring to concentrate on medical devices and imaging solutions. An emphasis on higher-margin devices add to the positive story.

Continue reading Covidien: A Bargain at This Level?

Covidien Still Looks Attractive

Medical device supplier Covidien Ltd. (COV), which I first wrote about on on June 4, 2009 at a price of $35.65, still looks like it has considerable upside, for the following reasons.

First, look for a 5-7% 2010 revenue increase with Covidien, aided by a decision to concentrate on medical devices and imaging solutions. Also, cost cuts and efforts to reduce the company's effective tax rate add to the positive story.

Continue reading Covidien Still Looks Attractive

Covidien Ltd.: Back up the truck

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for medical device supplier Covidien Ltd. (NYSE: COV), first recommended on June 4, 2009, at a price of $35.65. If you purchased Covidien then, you're up about 15%.

An aging U.S. population and the likelihood that U.S. public policy to universalize health care will lead to least 3-5 million more citizens per year for the next eight to ten years receiving regular health care services means one thing: it's a good time to be a medical supplier.

Continue reading Covidien Ltd.: Back up the truck

The U.S.'s demographics are in Covidien's favor

An aging U.S. population, and the likelihood that U.S. public policy will be to universalize health care, will lead to at least 3-5 million more citizens per year over the next 8-10 years receiving regular health care services. That means one thing: it's a good time to be a medical supplier. And that means it's a good time to review Covidien, Ltd. (NYSE: COV).

In general, analysts see moderate-to-good earnings growth for COV in FY2009/FY2010, aided by a focus on medical/surgical devices and imaging solutions.

Continue reading The U.S.'s demographics are in Covidien's favor

Where's the value in the Tyco (TYC) companies?

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC) shares have performed dismally since it completed its spin-off of Tyco Electronics Ltd. (NYSE:TEL) and Covidien Ltd. (NYSE:COV). In fact, those have been poor performers as well. It isn't easy being one of the few naysayers ahead of a major event like this, but there are frequently too many conflicted reports out there. Does anyone expect that the large investment banking firms facilitating that deal or near-term financing would actually post a 'HIGH CAUTION" alert on any of the companies? Exactly.

Before the spin-off was implemented, I noted a "phantom premium" in Tyco's stock because the investing world was just too much in love with spin-offs, mergers, and private equity at the time. Interestingly enough, this shakeout may be going a bit too far as far as the overall values of the three units now. There is more data that needs to be crunched to verify this, but next week subscribers of the Special Situation Investing Newsletter will receive a newsletter with a tie of a company to one of the remaining ex-Tyco Newco stocks.

We ran a basket analysis this morning and showed that the ex-Tyco group as a whole was down twice as much as the general markets off of the July highs. That was also before the drop in all three stocks this morning. Mergers and special situations are not dead by any means. But now the funny-money deals are going to be a thing of the past. Deals might even have to make sense other than the greater fool theory from here on out. The good news is that the stupidity in mergers and special situations has been flushed out of the market and analysis doesn't have to worry about irrational conditions clouding up the picture.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and does not own securities in the companies he covers.

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Last updated: May 26, 2012: 01:47 PM

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