By year-end 2009, we will see a more than $4 trillion pullback in credit lines. And we are a country that runs on credit. In fact, the entire growth in consumer spending from 1997 to 2008 was paid for with home equity lines and credit cards.

Credit standards are already impossibly high. My credit lines literally shrink every month because I do not use them. But what if I needed them? And I almost couldn't get a lease for a new car even though I have never missed a bill payment. The majority of people cannot borrow money and, therefore, cannot spend. This will not change in 2010.

Next: Reason #6: Excess capacity

Wednesday morning kicked off with news that Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) saw third-quarter earnings rise to $3.24 billion (56 cents per share) from $1.64 billion (49 cents per share) last year. The results handily trounced the consensus estimate of 37 cents per share.

Wells Fargo also reported revenue of $22.47 billion , which was better than both a year ago and the consensus estimate. The company stated that net charge-offs for the quarter came in at $5.1 billion (2.5% of average loans), compared to $4.4 billion (2.11% of average loans) in the second quarter. The bank did note that it expects credit losses to continue increasing, but at a slower pace thanks to a slowing of the pace of deterioration.

Homebuilder confidence hit a 1 year high today, providing another sign that the worst of the housing melt down may have passed.

The housing market started to crumble back in 2006, and since that time foreclosures and falling home prices have hit the economy hard, and played a major role in the recession that has effected millions. Today the The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index climbed to 18, the highest level that it has been since June 2008.

It's been a week of mostly positive data points for U.S. investors. Here's another: the Libor-OIS spread has narrowed to a level former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he regarded as "normal."

The Libor-OIS spread, which measures the reluctance among banks to lend, fell 1 basis point Thursday to 25 basis points -- its lowest level since January 24, 2008, Bloomberg News reported. The spread had surged to an incredible 364 basis point in October 2008, during the global financial crisis' acute stage.

For the fifth month in a row, consumers paid down their credit cards and other debt, as the worldwide recession continues to drive conservative financial behavior.

According to the Federal Reserve, outstanding consumer debt fell $10.3 billion (4.9%) to $2.5 trillion in June. Analysts expected a decline of only $4.7 billion, making the plunge unexpected -- and nearly twice the $5.4 billion by which consumer debt fell in May.

Not a good day for those looking for green shoots with markets down strongly. And no wonder. Credit card problems with the U.S. consumer are off the hook as CapitalOne (NYSE: COF) charge-offs rose to their highest historical level of 9.91% (via ZeroHedge) and American Express (NYSE: AXP) rose to 10% (via Mish Shedlock).

Higher chargeoffs and retracting credit means further consumer spending retraction. A semi-annual survey by Collier Capital found that 20% of institutional investors plan to downsize their target allocation to private equity, (via PEHub) the largest negative response since the survey started in 2004. An article by two Harvard University economists found that the biggest reason for the growing income inequality is lagging educational improvement in the American workforce (via VoxEU). There is no quick fix for this so its fairly bad news (although better than blaming the inequality on globalization and some neo-capitalist cabal).

Alex Salkever is Director of Research at Piqqem.com, a stock analysis site powered by the Wisdom of Crowds.

As we all know, the housing market has been taking a beating over the past couple years. The global recession seemed to spark right out of the American housing market, and things have not really been improving too much. With all the homes that are unsold in the country, more and more homeowners have decided to rent instead of sell their properties.

As the housing market began to come apart at the seams, home inventories started to swell, and prices started to drop. Everyone has been waiting anxiously to see a point where the lower prices would bring massive buyers back into the market, but that still has not happened yet, and instead of lowering prices even further, homeowners have decided to hold onto properties a little longer and pull in some rental income instead.

Small biz credit card issuer Advanta (NAS: ADVNA) will shut down accounts to preserve capital and will stop lending June 10, according to Bloomberg. The company has 1 million customers that could be left without credit cards, yet another blow for small businesses suffocating without sufficient credit lines. Shares tumbled 24% on the news to less than a dollar per issue.

If you follow the bank stocks, you noticed the latest earnings were very good. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) showed earnings that almost tripled. Citigroup (NYSE: C) lost 18 cents a share, but that was much better than the 34 cent loss analysts expected, and way better than the $2.44 it lost in the last quarter of 2008. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) pre-announced it would have great earnings. Then delivered record results. But all of these stocks are well off their recent highs. Why is that?

It has to do with the quality of earnings. In other words, what was the source of this new-found land of profitability or in the case of Citi, lower loss? Investors like ongoing, predictable earnings. In the case of banks, that means loans such as mortgages or credit cards to worthy borrowers. But that isn't where banks got their profits this quarter. Instead, they came from investment banking and trading.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Bennet Sedacca.

My main reason for being long equities was purely a technical/sentiment call. But many of those that were asking me if they should liquidate their portfolios just 10 days ago were asking me what to buy and how long I thought the rally would last. I must confess that my honest to goodness answer is/was 'no idea.' But the change in sentiment was what quickly caught my attention.

Further, TV commentators and others turned bullish awfully quickly.

But the REAL reason is that MACRO TRUMPS TECHNICALS.

I just saw the latest Credit Market Debt/GDP number as of 12/31 (and this is before GDP was going to drop and before all of the recent issuance) and it was a stunning 370%. A record high by a long shot.

So much for de-leveraging. In fact the economy is getting MORE leveraged.

We all know that the real estate market is in trouble, and another sign of just how bad things are came out today as the National Association of Realtors announced another steep drop in home prices during the fourth quarter.

The NAR started keeping comprehensive data on home sales back in 1979, and in that time period there has not been another quarter that saw home prices drop as much as they did in the fourth quarter of last year. So just how much did values drop? A massive 12.4%.

The Bank of England cut its key rate by half a percentage point to 1%. However, even with the move, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said that there was still disruption in money markets and the rate cuts have not yet had their full impact.

The MPC cited the sharp drop in output in the fourth quarter of last year and a similar drop early this year.

Nationwide, the UK's largest building society announced that it reduced its base mortgage rate to 3% from 3.5%.The MPC pointed to the global nature of the current slowdown and stated that the supply of credit to households and businesses remained constrained.

The Federal Open Market Committee issued its statement in which it indicated that it will keep short-term benchmark rates low for the foreseeable future. This was not really new and was expected. However, the bigger question was the Fed's stance on quantitative easing, the unconventional methods to keep credit flowing in the economy.

The Fed clearly indicated that it will continue to provide credit directly to those in need using the newly developed special programs, such as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, as the primary vehicles. It is focusing on the most effective means to keep credit flowing.

Helping people with troubled mortgages is supposed to keep them in their homes and , over time, stabilized the housing market. The FDIC and Congress have urged that more money from the TARP be used for the purpose of propping up home loans instead of improving bank balance sheets.

The conventional wisdom about helping homeowners make payments may be wrong. According to The Wall Street Journal, a report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision shows that "More than half of loans modified in the first quarter had slipped back into delinquency after six months, and were 30 or more days past due by the end of September."

Not very promising progress. The theories from federal officials about why this is happening were not very helpful.

A look at the average troubled mortgage-holder may be more useful. This is a man who may lose his job as unemployment rises from 7% to, perhaps, 9%. He has little prospect for his income to rise. He may have large amounts of credit card debt but no access to additional credit. He may have an expensive home equity loan. And, perhaps worst of all, the value of his home may be way below the value of his mortgage. He may be facing the fact that he will never get a dime of equity out of his house.

The idea that helping troubled mortgage-holders may break the fall of housing prices could be deeply flawed. That would mean that pouring tens of billions of dollars into the home mortgage market may have very little effect. Better to make people fell that their jobs are secure and that they have access to credit at reasonable costs. Maybe then homeowners will fell that paying their mortgages makes some sense.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

It occurred to me while responding to a comment in my Chasing Value column that there are some basic necessities in life that we do not normally think of as such. The discussion had to do with finding those intrinsic or basic things a company (stock) produces that might reduce investor risk or help establish basic value.

Food and water clearly matter to everyone, and you could add energy, but until the economy freezes up like it has the past year, you might not appreciate the importance of credit.

The single biggest reason that car dealers say they cannot move anything off the lot is a lack of consumer credit. People have tapped out their credit cards and home equity lines, and probably their friends and family by now -- so it is all pay as you go. The going is rough and the going is slow.

The Federal Reserve has now reduced the overnight rate to nothing in an effort to get financial institutions to free up some of their capital and to lend to each other. They have also been trying to push mortgage rates down. They were successful in doing so because many lenders have offered me rates under 5% for 30-year fixed mortgages just this past week.