Consumer debt levels fell again in August for the seventh month in a row. Facing continued instability in the job market, people are paying down their debt, as a way to protect themselves. Savings are up, and borrowing is down – which could weaken the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity in the United States.

Total consumer debt outstanding dropped by $12 billion in August, according to the Federal Reserve, reflecting an annualized rate of 5.8%. Reality outpaced Wall Street's expectations, which were around $10 billion. In July, consumer debt outstanding fell $19 billion (9.1%), which was the largest in hard-dollar terms since 1943 and on a percentage basis since June 1975's 16.3%.

While consumer fear is playing a significant role, as a touchy housing market and dicey job situation leave little to lean on, the banks are also responsible for the change in direction. They aren't lending as easily, with stricter standards limiting the amount of credit available to consumers. You can't spend what you can't borrow.

It's beginning to look like people who borrow money on their credit cards are in a strong negotiating position with the credit card issuers. I find this really surprising; however, people have borrowed so much -- $2.4 trillion in installment debt -- that they have the credit card companies in a strong position when it comes to repaying -- or not.

And those credit card companies expect to get stiffed by 44% more over the next five years than they did in the past five. For example, between 2003 and 2008, credit card companies wrote off $275 billion in credit card receivables but in the next five years, they expect not to collect $395 billion.

And just as we see with the government forking over $8 trillion of taxpayer money to financial institutions, the ones that took on too much risk are the ones getting the special deal. This means that if you are delinquent for 90 days or longer; your income is in the right range; you have a broad network of banking relationships; and your credit record suggests missing a payment is an exception rather than the rule then you can get a deal.

Oil prices are significantly down from the summer high of $147 per barrel. Wednesday October 1, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for November delivery, lost $2.11 to close at 98.53 dollars a barrel.

Now Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is slashing its outlook for oil prices. Not only do their analysts believe that oil will drop below $90 a barrel next year, but they add that there is a possibility it may drop below $50. Demand is shrinking and it's hard to call a bottom.

Given all the turmoil in the financial markets this year and with a looming "consumer credit bubble" being discussed in most business publications, it would be very advisable to use any savings from lower oil prices to pay down credit card debt.

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money moves that may seem smart in tough economic times, but are actually quite dumb. See all 12.

You are drowning in credit card debt. Bill collectors are harassing you day and night. You just can't take it any more.

Should you consider filing for bankruptcy and starting fresh with a clean slate?

This is the issue confronting many Americans. According to the Consumer Federation of America, the size of the problem is staggering. There are over one billion cards in circulation. Most people pay only a portion of their credit card debt monthly, leaving an average balance of more than $10,000.

However, filing for bankruptcy is no panacea.

The new bankruptcy law that was passed into law in April 2005 makes it more difficult for consumers to discharge credit card debt. The new law requires debtors to pass a "means test" in order to qualify for discharge of debt or for payment of their obligations from existing assets. If a debtor does not pass the means test, they may still be permitted to file for bankruptcy, but they will be required to pay some portion of their obligations over a three-to-five year period.

Bloomberg News reports that consumer borrowing -- as measured by credit card receivables -- grew much faster than expected in March. Specifically, the 9% growth to $2.56 trillion was twice the rate of increase that economists had expected (the actual increase was $15.3 billion vs. 34 economists who expected $6 billion). The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession.

And as consumers are increasing their indebtedness, they are also having more trouble paying it back. Overdue payments at the six largest U.S. credit-card lenders reached the highest level since November 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It found an average of 4.11% of loans were at least 30 days late in February and March.

Bloomberg quotes Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York who says it all: "incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression. The days of extracting cash from one's home to spend on goods and services are long gone."

With consumer spending accounting for 70% of GDP growth, that's why I suggested selling into the sucker's rally that peaked last week.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Andrew Horowitz, is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor. He discusses COF in the most recent episode of The Disciplined Investor Podcast

In an 8-K release this morning, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) reported a 13.7% increase in the monthly charge off rate for the U.S. card segment as compared to the December, 2007 report. As has been predicted, global credit card debt has been rising at an alarming rate. The most recent announcements of a 40% workforce reduction for Capital One's U.K. unit once again displays how "predatory lending practices" have now come back to haunt those companies that have been playing with financial-fire. As the Capital One Management was working on keeping credit card customers, they did not realize that that same level of loyalty would eventually come back to bite them in the asterisk. (Chart from 2007 COF Investor Conference)

When looking at the total picture, Capital One's $505,083,000 monthly principal write-off is becoming more and more concerning as we are continuing to witness a global economic contraction. Consumers are spending less as they have greater worries about their shrinking wallets...Right? They (we) are also becoming painfully aware that the housing slowdown is not going to be a short-lived phenomena. As their home values continue to fade, they are looking for alternative ways to pay for their everyday living expenses. This has led most to the only alternative they have to feed and clothe their family: The Credit Card in the wallet and the ones in the back of the drawer.

Now, as the "almost-affirmed" recession is upon us, delinquencies will rise along with foreclosures and bankruptcies. This will surely trickle down to the lenders as the inflows they receive dwindle, outflows grow and non-recoverable debt increases. While a 6% rate may seem historically high, back in 2003, Capital One posted rates closer to 8% as the U.S. was starting on the road to recovery from a difficult 2 years of recession and the fall off from the domestic stock markets averaging near -50%. The same predicament is what lies ahead as the stock market losses are substituted by housing losses. Even though property values may appear to be "on paper" the physiological wealth effect (or is it defect?) still hurts consumer confidence. All of this leads us back to an ever increasing problem with consumer credit.

While there are plenty of fast-talking late-night gurus out there who want to give you the information you need to get rich (all for the three easy payments of $29.95, but wait there's more...), the New York Times's Damon Darlin has some of the best personal finance advice that graduates don't want to hear:

• Save 10% of your income right off the top.
• Buy stuff used.
• Enroll in a 401(k).
• Don't borrow money to buy depreciating assets.
• Make your own coffee.

He offers two compelling reasons to start saving early. First, there's the most obvious one. Starting the cycle of compound interest early means your money will grow more. But then there's another one that I hadn't really thought about. Living below your means conditions you to be comfortable with a less expensive standard of living, which will also save you money in your retirement years.

There's another important thing to remember, and it's probably the best reason of all for being wise in your money management. I first realized this paradox when I was talking to my friend "Jim," who, after years of poor spending habits, has run up a huge amount of credit card debt, and lies awake at night worrying about money. He used to make fun of me for my Scrooge-like spending habits and obsession with saving as much money as possible. The other day, we sat down to discuss his problem.