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Posts with tag CreditCardDebt

From houses to plastic: Spike in credit card borrowing signals trouble

Bloomberg News reports that consumer borrowing -- as measured by credit card receivables -- grew much faster than expected in March. Specifically, the 9% growth to $2.56 trillion was twice the rate of increase that economists had expected (the actual increase was $15.3 billion vs. 34 economists who expected $6 billion). The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession.

And as consumers are increasing their indebtedness, they are also having more trouble paying it back. Overdue payments at the six largest U.S. credit-card lenders reached the highest level since November 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It found an average of 4.11% of loans were at least 30 days late in February and March.

Bloomberg quotes Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York who says it all: "incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression. The days of extracting cash from one's home to spend on goods and services are long gone."

With consumer spending accounting for 70% of GDP growth, that's why I suggested selling into the sucker's rally that peaked last week.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Growing credit debt may not be good for credit card company Capital One

Andrew Horowitz, is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor. He discusses COF in the most recent episode of The Disciplined Investor Podcast

In an 8-K release this morning, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) reported a 13.7% increase in the monthly charge off rate for the U.S. card segment as compared to the December, 2007 report. As has been predicted, global credit card debt has been rising at an alarming rate. The most recent announcements of a 40% workforce reduction for Capital One's U.K. unit once again displays how "predatory lending practices" have now come back to haunt those companies that have been playing with financial-fire. As the Capital One Management was working on keeping credit card customers, they did not realize that that same level of loyalty would eventually come back to bite them in the asterisk. (Chart from 2007 COF Investor Conference)

When looking at the total picture, Capital One's $505,083,000 monthly principal write-off is becoming more and more concerning as we are continuing to witness a global economic contraction. Consumers are spending less as they have greater worries about their shrinking wallets...Right? They (we) are also becoming painfully aware that the housing slowdown is not going to be a short-lived phenomena. As their home values continue to fade, they are looking for alternative ways to pay for their everyday living expenses. This has led most to the only alternative they have to feed and clothe their family: The Credit Card in the wallet and the ones in the back of the drawer.

Now, as the "almost-affirmed" recession is upon us, delinquencies will rise along with foreclosures and bankruptcies. This will surely trickle down to the lenders as the inflows they receive dwindle, outflows grow and non-recoverable debt increases. While a 6% rate may seem historically high, back in 2003, Capital One posted rates closer to 8% as the U.S. was starting on the road to recovery from a difficult 2 years of recession and the fall off from the domestic stock markets averaging near -50%. The same predicament is what lies ahead as the stock market losses are substituted by housing losses. Even though property values may appear to be "on paper" the physiological wealth effect (or is it defect?) still hurts consumer confidence. All of this leads us back to an ever increasing problem with consumer credit.

Continue reading Growing credit debt may not be good for credit card company Capital One

Damon Darlin's great advice for recent grads

While there are plenty of fast-talking late-night gurus out there who want to give you the information you need to get rich (all for the three easy payments of $29.95, but wait there's more...), the New York Times's Damon Darlin has some of the best personal finance advice that graduates don't want to hear:

  • Save 10% of your income right off the top.
  • Buy stuff used.
  • Enroll in a 401(k).
  • Don't borrow money to buy depreciating assets.
  • Make your own coffee.

He offers two compelling reasons to start saving early. First, there's the most obvious one. Starting the cycle of compound interest early means your money will grow more. But then there's another one that I hadn't really thought about. Living below your means conditions you to be comfortable with a less expensive standard of living, which will also save you money in your retirement years.

There's another important thing to remember, and it's probably the best reason of all for being wise in your money management. I first realized this paradox when I was talking to my friend "Jim," who, after years of poor spending habits, has run up a huge amount of credit card debt, and lies awake at night worrying about money. He used to make fun of me for my Scrooge-like spending habits and obsession with saving as much money as possible. The other day, we sat down to discuss his problem.

Continue reading Damon Darlin's great advice for recent grads

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 03:48 AM

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