Everything is fine, right? I mean May was a great month, following a solid April - so we are out of the woods, right? Not so fast my friend, there are some hints that we could hit a second credit crisis. According to this article, some early warning signs of another global financial crisis include surging government bond yields, a slumping dollar, and the end of the bear market rally in the U.S.

The most worrisome possible signal is the heavy selling of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, which could "trigger a full-blown currency crisis and usher in surging inflation." This assertion means that we should be a bit concerned that the Treasury note yields' surged to six-month highs near 3.75% this week. This move indicates that investors may be concerned about the U.S. government borrowing requirements this year.

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) is set to report earnings on April 22, but the bank stated this morning that it expects to report first-quarter income of nearly $3 billion. WFC's preliminary first-quarter earnings are 55 cents per share, compared to 60 cents per share a year ago. These figures are after "preferred dividends," which include $372 million in dividends paid to the government - these charges are taken into account.

The early reports of earnings of 55 cents per share are far better than the consensus estimate for 31 cents per share. WFC added that total revenue for the quarter should be $20 billion.

Ah, yes. Tuesday, baseball season, and new NCAA champs. Sigh. Online classified ad growth skyrocketed by 84% in February, according to Hitwise (tip to MarketingCharts.com). The bad news? Craig's List and other free classified sites dominated the growth, further sealing the doom of newspapers. Steve Ruble of Micropersuasion interviewed Jeff Jarvis of "What Would Google Do?" fame (and Buzzsaw, of course) and asked what the future of online advertising was. The reply? Bleak to non-existent.

After the closing bell sounded yesterday afternoon, MBIA (NYSE: MBI) stepped into the spotlight to report fourth-quarter earnings. The struggling banking firm saw its fourth-quarter loss shrink to $1.2 billion, or $5.30 per share from last year's fourth-quarter loss of $18.55 per share.

This quarter's loss came courtesy of a $1.7-billion and a $532-million loss on insured derivatives. Both of these losses were logged pre-tax. The company's CEO Jay Brown blamed the rough 18-month period on the "worst credit crisis since the Great Depression." Last year was a rough year for MBIA, as the weak housing market lead to many homebuyers and homeowners defaulting on or lagging in their mortgage payments leading to a major problem for MBIA, which insures mortgage bonds. The problem for the banking firm is that the mortgage turmoil is expected to continue.

We all know the harsh reality of the tough economy we are in. We are dealing with a recession that no one can foresee ending at this point. This morning we got another hint at how bad things are with the release of 2008 construction figures, which showed construction spending in 2008 fell by a new record amount.

The Commerce Department released December construction figures today, which showed spending in December fell for the third month in a row, with a reported 1.4% decline during the month. This was a bit worse than the revised 1.2% decline that analysts had been expecting to see for the month. Previously, the November figure was showing a drop in spending of only 0.6%.

Yes, you may hear that the corporate bond market is breathing again and the exotic "TED spread" -- the difference between T-Bill and LIBOR rates -- is shrinking, but no one is lending money to anyone and confidence is non-existent.

Recently the entire country of Spain (meaning Spanish national debt) was put on credit watch due to deteriorating economic conditions.

Remember, the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression (I am not forecasting either one, by the way) started at a medium-sized bank in Austria, not on Wall Street or in London.

Credit markets are not only frozen because we don't know what is on the banks' balance sheets; they are also frozen because banks are repairing their own balance sheets by hoarding capital.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

The banks are a wreck and now the pieces are beginning to fly apart, with Citigroup (NYSE: C) struggling the most and beginning to dismember itself.

Meredith Whitney, the uber-analyst who has been right about everything in banking for more than two years, said there were $2.4 trillion in asset downgrades at the end of last year by the credit agencies. This will really whack the banks' critical Tier 1 capital.

And even if you forget earnings problems, the banks will continue to have no money to lend, which will strangle businesses and the economy.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

Recent studies indicate that in spite of popular thinking, there is no credit crunch.

Bank credit and bank lending are at all time highs. Companies with good balance sheets are having no problem in obtaining credit. The Libor Rate, which is a measure of lending activity, is down to 2%. Even economists at the Federal Reserve are baffled by widespread comments that the U.S. is having a credit crunch.

According to reports on the credit situation, it was only a few banks that got overextended and got into trouble, which then triggered the huge bailouts we have seen.

Now where do we go from here? There should be some kind of investigation as to the number of banks and which banks caused this mess. These bankers should be identified and asked to step down immediately. We no longer can tolerate such obvious misdeeds.

Yesterday's election marks the end of a string of economy-destroying ideas that stretch back to 1980. America rejected the idea that it's right to run a government of the rich for the rich. It figured out that when you cut taxes for the top 1%, run record deficits, double the national debt, and eliminate regulation, you don't get trickle down, you get meltdown. Barack Obama's election means that these ideas are history.

What will replace them? Obama has already discussed economic stimulus, middle class tax cuts, mortgage modification, a moratorium on foreclosures, infrastructure spending, wider health care coverage, and investment in alternative energy.

But the 43rd president left Obama with a challenge -- to figure out the underlying problems with the current financial system and rebuild it in a way that will work in the short and longer term. Obama must come up with new ideas on which to rebuild the crumbling ruins he's inheriting.

To do that, he will create a team of experts from both parties. That team should analyze the sources of the problems that beset the economy and financial system. And it must agree on principles which can be used to craft legislation that will rebuild the financial system. As I've posted, I believe what they'll find is the need to create a system that ends securitization. limits leverage, delivers transparency, ties compensation not to deal size but to long-term profitability, and builds firewalls between markets around the world.

One of the characteristics of the current housing crisis is that it is an avalanche. As it heads downhill it picks up speed. The longer it goes unsolved, the harder it will be to fix. Foreclosures continue to increase. Prices continue to fall. As unemployment moves toward 7% and above, those numbers are not going to improve.

Odd then, the no one in the federal government can stop fighting over how to fix the problem long enough to come to a quick solution and begin to fix the situation before a catastrophe turns into a cataclysm.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "The FDIC has been developing a proposal, which some estimate could help between two and three million homeowners." It is less clear what the administration wants to do, but it is concerned that baling out homeowners will encourage some people to default on mortgages to get a handout.

The White House is right when looking at the small picture and wrong when it looks at the larger one. Some cheaters and scoundrels will use a program to help enrich themselves. But, it is likely that the number of thieves will be much smaller than the millions of people who have legitimate problems staying in their homes. While details which are relatively unimportant in the scheme of these hold up a plan, the rest of the system heads down the toilet.

Penny wise, and pound foolish.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

One of my relatives works in construction. Bags of material needed to make concrete have lately been piling up at his job site because no one is mixing the stuff. That's yet another sign of the slowing economy and the impact it's having on people. Today's expected dramatic selloff in the stock market is another.

Investors used to gasp when they saw a triple-digit decline in the Dow Jones industrial Average. Now, as one of my friends recently noted, it's "another day at the office." It's not that people like huge declines; they have grown accustomed to living in a constant state of dread.

Today is no exception. Trading, which was limited in the pre-market, is going to be awful. Call it "Frantic Friday" or "Freaky Friday." Fear is ruling the day again. Investors are not acting rational. Blah, Blah, Blah. You have heard it all before. The only questions is why the world appears to be coming to an end today.

My colleague Peter Cohan points out that markets in Asia and Europe have been tanking. Even Canada, which largely avoided the subprime crisis, is guaranteeing up to C$218 billion in bank debt to match the bailouts offered by other countries. Remember, Canada's banks were recently recognized as being the most stable in the world. This underscores the nervousness of investors.

Despite having lots of cash – and little debt – shares of Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) have collapsed along with the other financials. Over the past year, the stock price has plunged from $29.38 to a recent low of $6.88.

But the firm's uber dealmaker, Stephen Schwarzman, is getting optimistic. At the Super Return Middle East conference, he gave a presentation that extolled the benefits of the US's ambitious – and expensive – plan to get things back on track. Yes, he thinks it's a good idea for the Feds to become equity holders in some of the top US banks.

So, why is this die-hard capitalist turning into a government supporter? Well, I guess the globalization of finance requires new approaches. In fact, Schwarzman mentioned that it was critical that the recent interventions have involved a variety of governments.

What's more, by having a strong government backstop, institutions will have a comfort level with counterparty risks. In other words, it's a good bet that we'll start seeing some risk taking again. And, for Schwarzman, it should also mean a re-emergence of buyout activity, which has been virtually frozen over the past few months..

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website

Analyst Michael Molnar of Goldman Sachs took a harsh tone on the solar sector today, slashing his opinion to Sell on both First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA). Specifically, First Solar was slashed to Conviction Sell from Buy, while SunPower was dropped from Buy to Sell. In a note to clients, Molnar explained, "We strongly believe that SunPower and First Solar are two of the best solar companies in the world and that both will be part of the growing solar industry for years to come. However, in our view, even these companies will face headwinds in a market that is oversupplied with modules."

Specifically, "the risk of oversupply in the solar market will soon become a reality as considerably less generous demand subsidies take hold just as a wave of supply and tight financing hit the market," said Molnar. He added, "We believe that liberal subsidies of the past in markets like Germany and Spain are unlikely to be replicated in the future, given fears of their ultimate cost in a bad world economy."

As a whole, Goldman maintains a "cautious" view of the solar sector -- and the brokerage firm isn't alone. Piper Jaffray also weighed in on solar firms today, with a warning that higher credit costs could reduce average selling prices by an additional 6%. "The renewables industry depends on access to credit, and for the moment, the credit market remains closed," Piper stated. "We believe the cost of capital on renewable projects will increase due to higher bank financed interest rates, larger spreads, and more upfront fees." For 2009, Piper Jaffray predicts that companies' average selling prices will fall by 15% to 21%.

Bloomberg News reports that since the credit crunch began to push global markets down from their October 2007 peak, investors have lost $17.5 trillion in value. That's almost three times the $6 trillion in lost value following the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

Bloomberg developed its calculation by measuring the drop in the MSCI World index. It writes, "More than $17 trillion in global equity value has been wiped out since October. All 10 industries in the MSCI World retreated in 2008 as a drop in lending magnified the global economic slowdown."

To that lost $17 trillion I have added the $500 billion of writedowns and losses at global banks, a writedown figure expected to hit $2 trillion according to Nouriel Roubini.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Wilbur Ross knows how to spot megatrends. For example, he built a steel empire – by purchasing bankrupt companies – and made billions. Oh, and he also predicted the current credit crisis.

Well, today Ross was on CNBC and provided some sage advice on the current economic morass. In fact, he discussed his straightforward plan on dealing with the credit crunch (which has been effect for about a year so far).



His proposal is called the "good bank, bad bank" approach. Essentially, it means setting up a third-party entity to take bad loans from Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Interesting enough, this was the strategy to deal with the S&L implosion during the early 1990s. And, for the most part, it worked.

According to Ross, the US financial system needs to focus on the good loans – which should stabilize things and lead to more lending. Ultimately, this should spark economic growth and get things back on track again.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.