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Options Update: Exxon Mobil volatility low on $78 oil

Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed at $74.43. Crude oil futures are recently down 0.67% to $78.37, according to Bloomberg. Barron's says, "The stock could hit 90 in the next year." December option implied volatility is at 21, January is at 23; below its 26-week average of 26, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Lorillard (LO) closed at $79.77. Lorillard will be presenting at Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer Conference on Nov. 19. December and January option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average of 29. Options were active on Nov. 16 with 23,488 contracts trading according to Track Data. Average daily volume is 970 contracts, according to IVolatility.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Yingli Green Energy volatility up into EPS

Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) closed at $11.74. YGE is scheduled to report Q2 EPS today. YGE August 12 straddle is priced at $1.65, September 12 straddle is priced at $2.90. YGE September option implied volatility of 100 is above its 26-week average of 91, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.46. Crude oil futures are recently up 0.61% to $68.70 according to Bloomberg. APC September option implied volatility is at 40, November is at 41; below its 26-week average of 51, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Options Update: Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: Exxon Mobil volatility low into EPS and $65 oil

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) closed at $69.99. XOM is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 30. Crude oil futures are recently down .35% to $65.17, according to Bloomberg. August option implied volatility of 23 is below its 26-week average of 34, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 38; 26-week average is 60.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Exxon Mobil volatility near eight-month lows as oil approaches $60

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) closed at $69.27. Crude oil futures are recently up 1.09% to $59.14 according to Bloomberg. June option implied volatility of 29 is below its 26-week average of 40, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Ford (NYSE: F) said it will issue 300M shares of common stock in a public offering and use some of the money for a union-run medical trust and general corporate purposes. F has 2.9B shares outstanding. F closed at $6.08. F June option implied volatility of 91 is below its 26-week average of 120, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Volatility decreasing into EPS reports; MOS, CVX, KBH

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) plans to issue its Q2 earnings on January 5. MOS is hosting an analyst meeting on January 13, 2009. January option implied volatility of 96 is below a level of 121 in mid December and above its 26-week average of 90, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement compared to a two-weeks ago.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) closed at $71.55 Monday. CVX is expected to report Q4 EPS on January 8. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.67% to $39.35 according to Bloomberg. CVX January option implied volatility of 44 is below a level of 60 from two-weeks ago and near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement compared to two weeks ago.

KB Home (NYSE: KBH) is scheduled to report Q4 EPS before the open on January 9. KBH January option implied volatility of 105 is below a level of 131 from two weeks and near its 26-week average of 100 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement compared to two weeks ago.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options update 1-4-08: ConocoPhillips volatility flat as shares near record high

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed at $88.25 Thursday.

Crude oil futures are at $99.03 according to Bloomberg.

COP overall option implied volatility of 30 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risks.

NASDAQ 100 QQQQ overall implied volatility at 28; 26-week average is 25

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option update: Exxon (XOM), Barrick Gold (ABX) volatility up on rallies

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), a gold mining company, is recently up 83 cents to $43.10. ABX has a market cap of $36.5 billion. ABX is expected to report EPS on November 1. Gold is up 1.15% to $763.90 according to Bloomberg. Dow Jones reported Blackmont lowered its rating to Hold from Buy. ABX November option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) recently up $1.11 to $94.60. XOM will report EPS on November 1. Crude oil futures are up 1.34% to $84.81 according to Bloomberg. XOM November option implied volatility of 26 is near its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: GM volatility elevated into tentative UAW agreement

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) is recently trading up $1.46 to $35.93. GM and the United Auto Workers announced a tentative agreement on a new national contract. Alex Brown says, "this contract represents an inflection point for GM. We believe this should significantly improve competitiveness, cash flow, and valuation." GM October option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 46 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is an integrated energy company with a market cap of $195 billion and quarterly June 2007 revenue of $56 billion. CVX closed at $91.88. CVX announced a program to acquire up to $15 billion of common stock over a period of up to three years. Crude oil futures are up 0.79% to $80.16, according to Bloomberg. CVX overall option implied volatility of 27 is above its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Oil vs. natural gas: temporarily out of whack...again?

In recent months, light, sweet crude oil futures and natural gas futures have traced out a pattern similar to what occurred around the same time last year: the former rallied to new highs, while the latter drifted lower.

Yet only months later, the divergence between the two energy-related futures contracts corrected itself, with crude oil dropping precipitously and natural gas staging a modest rebound after briefly spiking down to fresh multi-year lows.

With the first part of the pattern seemingly repeating itself a year later, one might ask if we are poised to witness an instant-replay reversal-of-fortune in the period ahead?

If so, we may also see natural gas shares (as well as the Amex Natural Gas Index), which have lagged their oil sector counterparts (see the Amex Oil Index), staging a relative rebound.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 10:51 AM

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