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Brent Crude Oil Trading at $98.00 per Barrel

oil pipelineThe story of the day is about oil. February contracts for Brent crude are trading at $98.03 per barrel, up 74 cents as of 10:15 a.m. EDT. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) is trading at $91.85 per barrel, up 42 cents. Brent crude is used primarily in Europe. The drive to $100 per barrel is due in part to severe winter conditions in Europe.

Here in the U.S., the Alaskan Pipeline, which has been closed since Saturday, has reopened but at a reduced rate. U.S. stockpiles fell 1.4 million barrels from, 335.3 million in the week ended January 7. This data was based on 17 analysts polled by Bloomberg News.

Continue reading Brent Crude Oil Trading at $98.00 per Barrel

U.S. Futures Trading Lower Ahead of Economic Data

U.S. stock futures are lower, this morning as investors are awaiting economic data. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 10 points to 11,029.00, while those for the S&P 500 are down 0.60 point to 1,185.90. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index lost 1.50 points to 2,144.00.

U.S. stock markets closed lower yesterday, with the Dow losing 0.36%.

Economic data on Case-Shiller home prices for September and the Chicago PMI index for November business activity are due at 9:00 a.m. and 9:45 a.m. ET, respectively. The Conference Board is set to release November consumer-confidence data at 10 a.m. ET.

Continue reading U.S. Futures Trading Lower Ahead of Economic Data

Options Update: Oil Services Volatility Increases with Drilling Uncertainty

Oil Services Holders Trust (OIH) closed at $98. Crude oil futures are recently down 0.83% to $74.85 according to Bloomberg. OIH volatility increases as uncertainty regarding oil drilling mounts. OIH holdings include BHI, BJS, DO, ESV, GRP, GSF, HAL, SLB, HC, NBR, NE, NOV, RDC, RIG, SII, SLB, TDW and WFT. OIH June put option implied volatility is at 55, July is at 53; above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Stocks with implied volatility above 30-day mean; Apollo Group (APOL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boston Scientific (BSX) according to IVolatility.

CBOE Volatility Index-VIX at 30.56; 10-day moving average is 32.69, 50-day is 25.74, 200-day moving average is 23.12.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

BP Thrives as Oil Sector Gets Shaky

A dip in the shares of British Petroleum (BP) was to be expected following the massive oil spill and the expected costs BP will have to incur. Some buyers took advantage of the over-selling and got a bargain. Next will be the profit-taking. Only after that cycle is complete will we begin to sense how the market will assign value to the Gulf of Mexico tragedy.

Meanwhile, shares of Chevron Corp. (CVX), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) also took mild hits. The declines were most likely due to investors who don't want to keep money tied up long term in a sector that has just entered an indefinite period of instability. The hard-core oil bulls will claim that nothing has changed, but the fact remains that it's a new world for crude oil investments.

Continue reading BP Thrives as Oil Sector Gets Shaky

Options Update: Exxon Mobil volatility low on $78 oil

Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed at $74.43. Crude oil futures are recently down 0.67% to $78.37, according to Bloomberg. Barron's says, "The stock could hit 90 in the next year." December option implied volatility is at 21, January is at 23; below its 26-week average of 26, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Lorillard (LO) closed at $79.77. Lorillard will be presenting at Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer Conference on Nov. 19. December and January option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average of 29. Options were active on Nov. 16 with 23,488 contracts trading according to Track Data. Average daily volume is 970 contracts, according to IVolatility.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Yingli Green Energy volatility up into EPS

Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) closed at $11.74. YGE is scheduled to report Q2 EPS today. YGE August 12 straddle is priced at $1.65, September 12 straddle is priced at $2.90. YGE September option implied volatility of 100 is above its 26-week average of 91, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.46. Crude oil futures are recently up 0.61% to $68.70 according to Bloomberg. APC September option implied volatility is at 40, November is at 41; below its 26-week average of 51, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Options Update: Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: Exxon Mobil volatility low into EPS and $65 oil

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) closed at $69.99. XOM is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 30. Crude oil futures are recently down .35% to $65.17, according to Bloomberg. August option implied volatility of 23 is below its 26-week average of 34, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 38; 26-week average is 60.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Exxon Mobil volatility near eight-month lows as oil approaches $60

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) closed at $69.27. Crude oil futures are recently up 1.09% to $59.14 according to Bloomberg. June option implied volatility of 29 is below its 26-week average of 40, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Ford (NYSE: F) said it will issue 300M shares of common stock in a public offering and use some of the money for a union-run medical trust and general corporate purposes. F has 2.9B shares outstanding. F closed at $6.08. F June option implied volatility of 91 is below its 26-week average of 120, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Volatility decreasing into EPS reports; MOS, CVX, KBH

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) plans to issue its Q2 earnings on January 5. MOS is hosting an analyst meeting on January 13, 2009. January option implied volatility of 96 is below a level of 121 in mid December and above its 26-week average of 90, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement compared to a two-weeks ago.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) closed at $71.55 Monday. CVX is expected to report Q4 EPS on January 8. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.67% to $39.35 according to Bloomberg. CVX January option implied volatility of 44 is below a level of 60 from two-weeks ago and near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement compared to two weeks ago.

KB Home (NYSE: KBH) is scheduled to report Q4 EPS before the open on January 9. KBH January option implied volatility of 105 is below a level of 131 from two weeks and near its 26-week average of 100 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement compared to two weeks ago.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options update 1-4-08: ConocoPhillips volatility flat as shares near record high

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed at $88.25 Thursday.

Crude oil futures are at $99.03 according to Bloomberg.

COP overall option implied volatility of 30 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risks.

NASDAQ 100 QQQQ overall implied volatility at 28; 26-week average is 25

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option update: Exxon (XOM), Barrick Gold (ABX) volatility up on rallies

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), a gold mining company, is recently up 83 cents to $43.10. ABX has a market cap of $36.5 billion. ABX is expected to report EPS on November 1. Gold is up 1.15% to $763.90 according to Bloomberg. Dow Jones reported Blackmont lowered its rating to Hold from Buy. ABX November option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) recently up $1.11 to $94.60. XOM will report EPS on November 1. Crude oil futures are up 1.34% to $84.81 according to Bloomberg. XOM November option implied volatility of 26 is near its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: GM volatility elevated into tentative UAW agreement

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) is recently trading up $1.46 to $35.93. GM and the United Auto Workers announced a tentative agreement on a new national contract. Alex Brown says, "this contract represents an inflection point for GM. We believe this should significantly improve competitiveness, cash flow, and valuation." GM October option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 46 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is an integrated energy company with a market cap of $195 billion and quarterly June 2007 revenue of $56 billion. CVX closed at $91.88. CVX announced a program to acquire up to $15 billion of common stock over a period of up to three years. Crude oil futures are up 0.79% to $80.16, according to Bloomberg. CVX overall option implied volatility of 27 is above its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Oil vs. natural gas: temporarily out of whack...again?

In recent months, light, sweet crude oil futures and natural gas futures have traced out a pattern similar to what occurred around the same time last year: the former rallied to new highs, while the latter drifted lower.

Yet only months later, the divergence between the two energy-related futures contracts corrected itself, with crude oil dropping precipitously and natural gas staging a modest rebound after briefly spiking down to fresh multi-year lows.

With the first part of the pattern seemingly repeating itself a year later, one might ask if we are poised to witness an instant-replay reversal-of-fortune in the period ahead?

If so, we may also see natural gas shares (as well as the Amex Natural Gas Index), which have lagged their oil sector counterparts (see the Amex Oil Index), staging a relative rebound.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 07:55 AM

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