PetroChina (PTR) closed April 1 at $119.13. WTI Crude Oil Futures are recently up .65% to $85.42 according to Bloomberg. PTR April put option implied volatility is at 25, May puts are at 28, June is at 30; below its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Baidu (BIDU) closed at $600. BIDU overall option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average of 42, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: PetroChina Volatility Low; Crude Oil Above $85 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Apr 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This morning the big news of the day was the drubbing of European stock markets as fear spread throughout the region. Fear was generated by concern that some European countries could default on their sovereign debt. Among them are Greece, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece's budget gap is 12.7% of GDP Greece has to slash spending and may need IMF assistance.

Investors sold investment deemed risky such as commodities, gold and stocks and moved their money into bonds. This started a selling frenzy in commodities with oil falling $3.14 per barrel to $73.14 per barrel. Brent crude fell $3.79 per barrel to $72.13 per barrel.

Continue reading Oil Plunges 5% on Fears That European Economies May Falter

Oil Plunges 5% on Fears That European Economies May Falter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 04 Feb 2010 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading What are Halliburton's earnings numbers telling us about the economy?

What are Halliburton's earnings numbers telling us about the economy? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower

Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Is there a big commodities rally underway? Let's look at the numbers:

• The Commodity Research Bureau index (CRB) of 19 energy, metal and agricultural prices gained 14%, the most since 1974
• Gasoline soared 30% in May
• Gold and copper also surged
• Corn and soybeans reached their highest levels since last September
• Crude oil has jumped 29%, the most since 1999
• Gasoline futures for June delivery surged 31%, the most since 2006
• Cotton futures were up
• Gold is at $980.00 per ounce
• Silver posted the biggest monthly gain in 22 years

So you are probably asking: What is fueling this rally?

Continue reading Is there a big rally in commodities on the way?

Is there a big rally in commodities on the way? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 May 2009 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Supply and demand? Not for oil

Supply and demand? Not for oil originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 12 May 2009 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chevron (CVX) warns of weaker earnings

Chevron (CVX) warns of weaker earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Apr 2009 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

What is going to happen with crude? Two sessions ago, black gold dropped 7% to trade in the $35 region. Yesterday, crude hovered near break even. Today, we have the weekly crude inventory report -- which should have a modicum of impact on crude's price.

What I find interesting is the fact that we haven't seen the relief at the pump yet. I know that the Cushing, OK reserve is fully stocked and some of the crude sent to the stations is still from a time when black gold was worth more. But we have to be getting close to the $35-per-barrel stuff, right? I know right now I pay roughly $2 per gallon -- and I know, I should quit whining, but still....

Continue reading A look at oil ahead of inventory reports

A look at oil ahead of inventory reports originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Feb 2009 07:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For those that had the fortitude to pull the trigger, shorting crude back in early July when all the perfect storm conditions for $200 per barrel oil were on the horizon ... and had the stones to stay with that trade ... made a killing.

This is one of the greatest reversals for any major market of any kind that has ever occurred. And it clearly shows how the crude oil market was being manipulated by speculators and hedge funds.

The impact was fatal for hundreds of small airlines and small- to medium-sized trucking companies, along with thousands of other companies that didn't hedge against the price explosion in energy.

The price of crude, which topped out at $147 per barrel in July 2008, crashed to $35 per barrel by Dec. 18 -- a 76% haircut -- before getting a bid that got the price back above $40 on the eye-popping headline that OPEC would slash daily production by 4.2 million barrels.

Continue reading Best Trades of 2008: #3 Shorting oil on the Fourth of July

Best Trades of 2008: #3 Shorting oil on the Fourth of July originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 31 Dec 2008 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This oil trade takes the cake.

At the zenith of the speculative bubble in the oil patch -- when crude hit $147 per barrel in July -- you had everyone from T. Boone Pickens to Prince Alaweed touting $200-per-barrel oil by the end of the year.

Crude is now trading around $40 -- down $107 per barrel in less than six months. Unbelievable!

And this latest drop comes after OPEC voted to cut daily production by an eye-popping 4.2 billion barrels per day.

Looks like the world is awash in crude oil.

Needless to say, those euphoric longs in the oil stocks got destroyed. Most energy stocks lost 50% to 70% of their value during the course of the sell-off in crude.

And remember those television commercials with T. Boone and Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) CEO Aubrey McClendon pushing for the expansion of natural gas?

Well, natural gas prices are down 60% from their mid-year highs.

If you put money into T. Boone's Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) as recently as September, when the stock was trading at $20, you now own Mr. Pickens' vision for $5.

Continue reading 2008 Trades Gone Bad #5: The peak oil trade

2008 Trades Gone Bad #5: The peak oil trade originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 26 Dec 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Adam Warner:

Smarter minds than yours truly have noted that the oil ETF United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) is not the best bullish play on crude here. My understanding of the product is that USO owns futures, and must roll each cycle. And right now oil is in deep contango, which always sounds pornographic but actually just refers to the fact that there's a particularly steep and upward sloped curve in the futures as you go out in time.

I'll take their word for the contango part, but I'm not entirely sure why that necessarily will knock down USO. They'll roll when they roll, and even if the spread is wide, won't it then just depend on what happens in the next month AFTER the roll? I'm thinking out loud here, so if anyone has something enlightening to add on this topic, I am all ears.

I sold and am selling more Nov. puts anyway, so it should not matter a great deal from my standpoint. And I'm not sure I really have a great alternative if I want to do something bullish in oil options.

I don't trade futures or futures options, and as far as pure oil there's Super Double Ultra Octane Special (AMEX: DBO), which does not have liquid options.

There's also Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DIG) and UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DUG), but those track energy stocks.

Playing oil with the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Minyanville Founder and CEO Todd Harrison dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Holy cow, can it be any slower out there? I'm taking a break from trying to set the all-time record for meetings on a "slow" summah Friday to offer a quick take on a few topics.

Will Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) get married over the weekend?

• There hasn't been any price talk on Lehman so even if it happens, it's a bit of a crap shoot. Remember Minyans, Bear Stearns was taken over too.
  
  
• There is no doubt franchise value and a lot of smart people at Lehman. There's also a lot of baggage on their balance sheet. It -- like most of the financials -- is a double-edged sword.

Continue reading Lehman heating up a slow summer session

Lehman heating up a slow summer session originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With crude oil trading down to $126 a barrel, though some are still touting the price is moving to $200, or even $300 a barrel, it actually looks more like it is heading to at least $100 barrel. With growing sentiment in Congress, even among mainstream Democrats, to accept President Bush's proposal to do more drilling, the market has taken this as a signal that the government is serious about taking action to bring down prices at the pump. If the Democratic leadership would get on board, the current drop in crude prices would be nothing compared to what could happen.

Coupled with projected slower growth in emerging markets, most notably China, where we could see GDP growth slow by more than 2%, why should the price keep moving higher?

it's important to note that the decline we have witnessed over the last few weeks should result in a drop of over 50 cents a gallon at the pump. Coupled with people driving less, thus easing the demand, the increased supply, or the potential of increased supply on the market should help keep prices moving down.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/23/08.

Oil drops: $100 a barrel on the horizon? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Editor's Note: This post was written by Terry Woo, one of Minyanville's sharpest minds AND/OR brightest bulbs. For more perspective AND/OR insight, visit www.minyanville.com.

Crude oil is trading lower for a third day in a row.

Currently there's talk out there of demand destruction in other countries (i.e. China's slowing economic growth and slowing U.S. economy). But I don't think there has been enough coverage on financial television regarding Iran.

Remember crude's breakout when the world speculated Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. And remember more upward pressure when Iran retaliated by test firing its long-range missiles.

As reported by CNN yesterday, Undersecretary of State William Burns is accompanying an EU delegation and will meet with a top Iranian nuclear official... something that hasn't happened in decades! It's a game changing event. That combined with North Korea (cooperating with the world in giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons), I believe this is simply the Iranian risk premium being taken out of the price of oil.

The Iran factor in crude oil prices originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With the 4th of July approaching, it's always a good time to get a bit of perspective and take a look at what may happen in the second half of the year. As with predictions they generally tend to never come true, but here are 3 market predictions for the 2nd half of the year.

1- Crude oil will trade down under $100/barrel. As global growth continues to slow, especially in overheated emerging markets, some of the the speculative froth will leave the market and the price will start heading down to a point more in line with fundamentals.

2- The US Dollar will rally against the Euro, and reach a level of 1.42 by the end of December, down from the 1.58 current levels. With European growth expected to potentially contract by more than 1% in the coming quarters, and the US staying out of recession, the market will re-focus on growth differentials in the for-ex markets, providing some much needed strength for the greenback.

Continue reading Three market predictions for the second half of '08

Three market predictions for the second half of '08 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It was about 9 years ago that then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned investors of "irrational exuberance." Then at issue was the run up of hi-tech stocks. The question is if we are experiencing a similar "irrational exuberance" with regard to the surge in crude oil prices.

I know the arguments that there is too much demand for the available supply, that oil is a finite resource and the world is running out of crude, and that very few new sources of crude have come online in decades. My question is, didn't the market know this 6 months ago? All of the sudden oil traders woke up one morning and realized that we had all these problems?

What I don't understand is that you can't have it both ways. You can't claim that the world has entered a sustained slow growth era, and yet continue to claim that strong demand is what is causing the surging price. If we do still see very strong demand than maybe the global economy isn't as bad as most think.

I am no technical analyst, but the way crude has been trading sure has the makings of a bubble ready to pop. It's one thing to slowly and steadily increase in price, like we have seen for the last 5-6 years. It's quite another to see it move straight up in a vertical line, like we have seen of late.

Investors beware. This sure seems like another example of "irrational exuberance."

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.

Crude oil: "Irrational exuberance?" originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Minyanville's top dog, Todd Harrison, dares to ask in public what Wall Street types quietly consider in private. For more insight and ideas, visit

www.Minyanville.com

A few Random Thoughts on the action in crude:

• A finski (a $5 bill) ain't what it used to be - a 10% move at the beginning of last year. Now it's barely 4%.
  
  

• While I've been bearish on crude through the lens of deflation -- and I continue to believe all roads lead there -- "pure trading eyes" sees the sideways action for the last month.
  
  

• United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) $104-$113 are the parameters to watch (filling of the gaps versus upside breakout). You can drive a truck through that, I know, but I don't make the rules, I just try to play by them.
  
  

• Hands over eyes, sideways movement under resistance is a bearish churn. The same movement above support is a bullish base.
  
  

• My current position? Flatter than a sat on hat. And I like it that way... For now.

R.P.

Position in USO

Crude Control originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Jun 2008 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• If the next generation Apple (AAPL) iPhone is effectively a handheld computer, is the personal computer space a place to poke on the short side?

• What's the franchise value for Sun Microsystems (SUNW, er, JAVA)?
  
  
• Maybe that's the problem. In this ADD, immediate gratification world, perhaps folks don't remember that JAVA used to be SUNW?
  
  
Woah. Nelly?


Given that funky looking Gold Fields (GFI) chart, should I stress that I'm playing name through defined risk calls?


• In addition to the note that when I unwind my short crude I'm goning to sneak out of my long metal play, too?
  
  
• While I grabbed some tertiary financial exposure this morning, why is "Good traders know how to make money while great traders know how to take a loss" repeating in my keppe as I watch the action and overhang in Lehman (LEH)?
  
  
• Speaking of ticker symbols with G's in the front and I's behind, when do I revisit Gannett (GCI), which I pared nicely above $30 and kept some for the thesis?
  
  
Speaking of pairs, how do I get long Jo, short Blair?


R.P.

Positions in LEH, GFI, GCI

Answers I Really Wanna Know: Apple's Handheld Computer originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 10 Jun 2008 14:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With surging crude oil prices, and a slower economy, airline stocks don't rank high on investor wish lists. You don't hear colleagues standing around the water cooler singing the praises of the airlines. So what would make a sane investor contemplate purchasing an airline stock? I am not sure myself but if you take a long look at JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU), you may feel like throwing the dice.

Mark Kreiger at SeekingAlpha.com has a really good analysis of why JetBlue stock is compelling. He says, " The airlines are responding to the fuel crises by doing all the right things such as utilizing fuel hedging programs, initiating capacity reductions and reducing overall costs."

Kreiger singles out JetBlue because their Q1'08 report soundly beat analyst estimates. The company has $1 billion in cash and has a book value of $6. Well above the approximately $4.50 price per share. More interesting is a potential short squeeze setting up on the stock. Kreiger analyzes this further at the site, and it's worth a close read.

If you believe that at some point crude prices will drop, and you are looking for a way to play that drop, you potentially may want to do some research on JetBlue.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/27/08.

Will short squeeze send JetBlue soaring? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 May 2008 18:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Hedge Fund guru George Soros warned over the weekend, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, that " the crude oil market had been significantly affected by speculation." Because of all the speculators driving the price of crude higher and higher, Soros went on to say, "Speculation... is increasingly affecting the price, the price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles."

While I tend to disagree with Soros when he predicts that we are headed for a very deep recession, I do think that there isn't much justification to $130+ per barrel of crude. After all, the continuing cry of increasing demand falls short, when the big consumers of oil, are experiencing slower economic growth. After the Olympics, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chinese growth take a sharp fall as well, as many of the public works projects come to an end.

I think that potentially, we will see crude oil fall back to the $50-60 per barrel level.

Aaron Katsman is Senior Portfolio Manager of the Israel Growth Portfolio, of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/27/08

Oil prices may ease after the Chinese Olypmics originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 May 2008 16:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.