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Iran will waste four more years

The landslide victory of current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the announcement of same, only hours after the voting polls closed, even though paper ballots had to be hand counted, has cast serious doubts about the election results.

Last week I wrote of Iran's great potential but today much of that potential has evaporated for the time being, and perhaps for another four years. The rulers of Iran have decided that the devil they know is better than the one they don't. Unfortunately, as far as politicians go, they may have gotten exactly that.

Continue reading Iran will waste four more years

Will InBev have to say 'adios' to Cuba to buy Anheuser-Busch?

According to The New York Times' DealBook blog, InBev has a significant partnership with Cuba to produce Bucanero beer, the second-largest player in the communist country's market.

In the the beer world, this deal is not very important since the island has a population of about 11 million. Besides, its economy is a mess.

"Government defaulted on most of its international debt in 1986 and does not have access to credit from international financial institutions like the World Bank, which means Havana must rely heavily on short-term loans to finance imports, chiefly food and fuel," according to Global Security Org. "Because of its poor credit rating, an $11 billion hard currency debt, and the risks associated with Cuban investment, interest rates have reportedly been as high as 22%."

The question of what would happen to InBev's Cuban business in the event the takeover of Budweiser is successful is an interesting one. Would the company have to divest the business to comply with the U.S. embargo or not do anything since it is not a U.S.-based company? Maybe the subsidiary could be operated through a non-U.S. InBev business. Regardless, it's a solvable problem from a legal and financial vantage point.

While I have no doubt I have no doubt the Belgian brewer will gladly say "adios" to its small Cuban beer business if that's the price it has to pay to complete its $46 billion hostile bid for Anheuser-Busch Cos., Inc. (NYSE: BUD), public relations is another matter.

Continue reading Will InBev have to say 'adios' to Cuba to buy Anheuser-Busch?

Will U.S. Cuba embargo end now that Castro has resigned?

Fidel Castro, whose dictatorship outlasted the nine U.S. presidents who tried to oust him, resigned today as Cuba's president. The frail, 81-year-old despot is being succeeded by his younger brother Raul, 76, potentially leading to the end of the decades-old embargo against the Communist country.

Though replacing one Castro with another one is hardly revolutionary, this could be a significant development. U.S. businesses have been frothing at the mouth for years at the idea of entering Cuba, the largest country in the Caribbean, with a population of more than 11 million. The island, which is about the size of Pennsylvania, has natural resources including petroleum, nickel and iron ore, according to the CIA's World Factbook.

Though Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte told reporters that he doesn't expect the embargo to be lifted anytime soon, that position may not hold over the long-term because the Cuban market is too large for U.S. companies to ignore. You can bet that the Europeans and Canadians would love to expand their foothold in Cuba if America drags its feet.

Continue reading Will U.S. Cuba embargo end now that Castro has resigned?

Key Trading issues for today: Intel, Cisco, Symantec & Cuba

Everyone is gearing up for Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) earnings after today's close, here's a preview of earnings expectations.

The Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) price war has long been known and doesn't really change anything for this last quarter. What might be an issue is the guidance based on even a deeper price war, but there haven't been any serious estimate cuts on Intel from bulge-bracket firms on Wall Street.

Tomorrow we have Apple Inc.(AAPL) ($0.78 estimate), and here is a full earnings calendar for the week.

Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund, Inc. (NASDAQ:CUBA) is deemed as the backdoor play to investing in Cuba if Fidel Castro's health is truly deteriorating even further.

Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ:SYMC) is trading down 8%, and Doug has a piece outlining its real exposure to a Microsoft threat. I have previously noted that Symantec broke its chart after its previous earnings warning, and this appears to have it set even more so that way. CIBC has downgraded Symantec, and Goldman Sachs has removed it from the prized Conviction Buy List.

Doug also noted that the Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) downgrades might not be the best call out there, and I also noted after the analyst call how different this company is today from two years ago when the stock couldn't keep up with its valuations. The research isn't noting a risk to current earnings per se, so we aren't looking for anything grossly different. If you are a tech bull, then the 3% drop today might just be a gift.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 07:40 AM

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