TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they should be punished for trying an end run on taxpayers.
Love Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take), sell Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take)? That's how I feel after reading Horton's pathetic plea to bring back down-payment assistance for this industry, which remains unpunished for all it did to foment the housing crisis.
Yesterday, in one of our "Wall Street Confidential" series, I opined that Centex was shaping up to be one of the better builders after making so many right moves in the last year to preserve capital. I didn't care for industry leader D.R. Horton, though.
And that was before I read the outrageous comments from Horton CEO Don Tomnitz in Market Watch yesterday, where he decried that the new housing law didn't include more down-payment assistance loans from the FHA. These seller assistance loans plied basically, by the homebuilders that allow homebuyers to use a back door to FHA loans, have been defaulting at very high rates. The Congress, in an actual dollop of wisdom, scrapped them and instead gave people a tax credit of $7,500 to buy a new house, not bad considering that houses have retreated in value to the point that even though you need to put down more money as a percentage basis, as an absolute basis there's some affordability. This kind of loan is precisely what got us in trouble, an affordable loan that people ultimately couldn't afford that just helped Horton dump properties.
Despite the fact that the challenging housing conditions are still persisting, it looks like that some major housing companies are poised to see the light at the end of tunnel. SmartMoney underlines the fact that there has been some encouraging trend for homebuilders during the past few months.
The National Association points out that, "the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far," and the sentiment index is close to a historical low.
Looking at investing in housing stocks, one analyst at T. Rowe Price, Josh Spencer, makes a two-way analysis. From his point of view, housing stocks have a lot of risk if we are talking about their volatility, but they are not as risky when referring to a long-term time horizon due to their current cheap value.
Shares of D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), the largest U.S. home builder, were plunging in premarket after the company reported a large second quarter loss this morning. Its quarterly numbers were dragged down by the slumping housing market which forced the homebuilder to take hefty charges to write down the value of its inventory.
The company reported a loss of $1.31 billion, or $4.14 per share . The income figures were definitely nothing to cheer about. During its second quarter last year, the company had a profit of $51.7 million, or 16 cents per share, but that number was slashed this quarter as the homebuilder took pretax write-down charges of $834.1 million.
Wall Street analysts expected the company to have a quarterly loss of "only" 39 cents per share. So with the actual numbers, D.R. Horton is looking for a pretty bad day in today's session.
D. R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI), the largest homebuilder in the U.S., closed at $14.76.
DHI January 15 calls traded 191 times on transaction volume of 10,428 contracts, above its open interest of 6,097 contracts. DHI January option implied volatility of 65 is above its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer explains what could force the Fed to cut rates again.
The housing index just can't rally for a minute. The thing's amazing. The stress of the system is so clearly manifested by this that I have to wonder if the Fed wants this index lower.
Many of these firms lent money recklessly. Are the Fed heads thinking these companies need to pay like the New Centurys and the NovaStars (NYSE: NFI) (Cramer's Take) did? (Are the feds, by the way, thinking that this GMAC company has to go because that was a huge provider of crummy mortgages?)
Cancellations of new homes continue to surge and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), the nation's largest home builder, reported a 39% drop in fiscal fourth-quarter net orders, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal today [subscription required]. At the end of the quarter on September 30, D.R. Horton said it had orders for 6,374 homes worth $1.31 billion. Last year for the same quarter, orders totaled 10,430 worth $2.53 billion. The cancellation rate was also up over the rate in the third quarter. Third quarter cancellation rate was 38% and it was 48% in the fourth quarter.
Chairman Donald R. Horton told the Journal that market conditions "declined" and inventories are high. He said, "Buyers continued to approach the home buying decision cautiously. We expect the housing environment to remain challenging."
Pre-market trading in the stock shows a 2.43% drop over yesterday's closing price of $13.58 to $13.25. Expect the drop to continue as the news hits the markets today. Clearly there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet for home builders.
There are times when Wall Street, to borrow a phrase, takes "two steps forward and one step back."
Then there are times when the Street simply stands, and waits for the events on the ground to clarify the financial landscape.
And that was the case Tuesday, as Monday's rally faded into Tuesday's 140-point Dow sell-off. And one reason was the subprime issue in general, which seems to offer a data point daily regarding the sector's health, and its impact on the housing sector, and the economy.
Tuesday's data point was American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM), which dropped more than 80% to about $1.00 per share from its recent $10.50 per share after the company indicated it is unable to borrow money under its banks lines and is looking at ways to raise money, including "the orderly liquidation of assets."
Today the stock market is getting slammed, with the Dow down over 360 points. In my view, that's because many of the bad things that investors have been worrying about for years are all happening at the same time:
Spiking oil prices -- a barrel of crude oil was up $1.12 at $77.
Tanking housing market. Disappointing results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) and D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) -- squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans -- weighed heavily on the market.
Drying up of private equity financing -- as I posted earlier today.
Over the last few weeks, these worries have been masked by an onslaught of big mergers. But the mergers aren't happening today. Moreover, if the credit markets decide to turn their back on future deals, the only thing to stop the market from freefalling would be big companies exceeding earnings expectations.
What should you do? Probably nothing if you're in it for the long term, eventually all the bad news will come out and there will be a buying opportunity. But not yet.
KB Home: The company reported a second quarter loss and sales hit three-year lows. The loss was partly due to land value-related charges that highlighted the continued decay of the U.S. housing market. The company also said it was unable to provide investors with a full-year earnings forecast and couldn't say when they thought conditions would improve.
Lennar: Reported a Q2 loss. The company said market conditions had eroded so much that it's not trying to limit its losses for the year.
Pulte Homes: In response to the "challenging operating environment that continues to exist in the U.S. homebuilding industry," the company announced a restructuring plan designed to reduce costs and improve operating efficiencies in May.
Get the picture? Here's one more:
Ryland Group: Reported a Q1 loss in April and said it wouldn't be able to provide new guidance due to the slump in the housing market.
See a pattern? Homebuilder after homebuilder, it's the same story -- company faces challenging housing market, company loses money, tries to regain profitability. You'd think Citigroup would have noticed.
Aside from the companies themselves, other firms and analysts have said their piece about the sector. March data showed sales of existing homes fell to a four-year low. In April, Census Bureau data showed there were 2.5 million vacant non-seasonal housing units for sale, way over many firms' predictions. Additionally, AG Edwards said on April 30th that "it is not a good time to buy shares yet." Standard & Poor's said in May that they believed over a third of all U.S. homebuilders were "vulnerable to rating downgrades" in the midst of a "three-year downturn."
Home builder Beazer said in a regulatory filing yesterday that it terminated its Chief Accounting Officer for violating the company's ethics policy. Beazer said it fired Michael T. Rand after an internal probe of the company's mortgage origination business. The Atlanta-based company said the action was taken by its board and management after saying Rand violated the company's ethics policy by attempts to destroy documents.
The country's sixth largest home builder is currently under investigation by the FBI and is the subject of several lawsuits. Earlier this year, media reports noted that the company was under federal investigation for alleged mortgage fraud, a charge Beazer has vehemently denied. In May, it announced the SEC was conducting an informal inquiry to determine if the company, or its employees, had violated any securities laws.
Rand's firing is bad news for the Atlanta company, particularly because of the FBI investigation. JP Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut said that Rand's termination "raises red flags regarding the content of the documents in question." It is unclear whether the allegations against Rand will become part of the investigation.
Rand is the second senior official to be fired at Beazer this year. The company dismissed Kenneth Gary, its general counsel, in February for "a pattern of personal conduct" that included violations of company policies. Former CFO James O'Leary resigned from Beazer in March. Shares of the company, whose competitors include D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI) and Pulte Homes, Inc (NYSE: PHM), fell nearly 8% on yesterday's announcement; shares have fallen more than 40% this year.
Who's responsible for the company's troubles? Rand, the others, or is the company looking for scapegoats?
Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in February, with sales rising to a 6.69 million annual rate, a 3.9% increase from January's 6.44 million pace, the National Association of Realtors announced Friday.
Still, the surprising stat did not budge analysts' sentiment regarding projections for a sluggish (at best) new and existing home sales market for 2007. Further, additional NAR data underscored the latter concern: The NAR also released data which indicated that the median home price fell to $212,800 in February 2007, down 1.3% from $215,700 in February 2006.
Moreover, the current and projected housing sector sluggishness begs the obvious question: If you're in the market for a house purchase, what should you do?
From a price standpoint, the prudent course appears to be to wait. Of course, every potential purchase circumstance differs, and if you're being transferred to another city, if you choose to not rent/sub-lease another temporary residence, or if other options are not possible, you may have to purchase.
Then there's the case of the potential buyer(s) spotting "their dream house." If the home you're scouting is a must-have, then your choice is made for you.
Were you watching CNBC after the market close today? If so, you may be cancelling your plans to sink all your home's equity into a big remodel. In an unusually frank and sober prediction, D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) CEO Donald Tomnitz told the audience of millions of market watchers that "2007 is going to suck, all 12 months."
David Gaffen from the Wall Street Journal's MarketBeat blog was watching, and he wonders if it's not just a reaction to D.R. Horton's not-exactly-stellar stock performance. Though only down a penny today to $24.55, the stock is off 20% since its February 2, 2007 high near $31 -- a rough month, indeed.
The good news (sort of)? Tomnitz thinks 2008 will be better. Not good. Better than the suck-icious 2007, at least. Is this a case of let's-give- the-worst-case-projection-and-hope-no-one-blames-me-when-it- happens? Or is it really true? Either way, the homebuilder's stock isn't doing any better since his words; it's down over a percent in after-hours trading.
I, for one, won't bail out of the market but I think I'll wait to refinance... with this kind of talk, the only thing I see on the horizon is cheaper interest rates. And I'm certainly not going to hire Donald to run pep rallies anytime soon.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: OSI Restaurant Partners (OSI), D.R. Horton (DHI) and Microsoft (MSFT) top today's list of downgrades.
OSI Restaurant Partners, Inc. (NYSE:OSI) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Oppenheimer.
The firm believes the $40 bid is fair and the risk/reward of waiting for a deal outweighs the potential modest increases of other bids. D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at Merrill Lynch. They expect 2007's outlook to be a negative catalyst for the homebuilder.
Bank of America resumed coverage of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) with a Neutral, below their previous rating of Buy. They believe Microsoft's core earnings drivers are not all Vista-related and that given the company's valuation, sees few near-term catalysts to drive shares higher.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
C.E. Unterberg downgraded Netease.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) to Market Perform from Buy, citing a lack of near-term growth drivers after reporting weak Q3 results.
Himax Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:HIMX) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at Merrill Lynch also following the company's Q3 results.
Tribune Company (NYSE:TRB) was downgraded at A.G. Edwards to Hold from Buy. The firm said shares are trading based on a sale of the company. They believe downside risk is valued at $26-$29 with no sale and upside as much as $40 a share if the company was sold.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they should be punished for trying an end run on taxpayers. 
Despite the fact that the challenging housing conditions are still persisting, it looks like that some major housing companies are poised to see the light at the end of tunnel. SmartMoney 
Shares of 
D. R. Horton, Inc.
Today the stock market is getting slammed, with the Dow down 
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Were you watching CNBC after the market close today? If so, you may be cancelling your plans to sink all your home's equity into a big remodel. In an unusually frank and sober prediction, D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:
Should you sell into today's rally? Yes, if you think there are more surprises to come (I do)
The week in preview: Mulling over techs, financials
'Crash-and-burn economy?' 'Bailout beer bust?' What should we call America's economic disaster?
