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The week in preview: High hopes for MasterCard, Avon, Aflac, Northrop Grumman

If you've been watching earnings this past week, or if you read last week's Week in Preview, then this coming week may leave you feeling a bit like Bill Murray in Groundhog's Day. That is, again analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect earnings declines to be more frequent and deeper than earnings gains.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), IAC Interactivecorp (NASDAQ: IACI), Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO), Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), Diebold Inc. (NYSE: DBD), Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT), and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week, and they're all expected to report double-digit declines in earnings.

But again this week, let's take a look who Wall Street feels may have done well in the past quarter.

Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for MasterCard, Avon, Aflac, Northrop Grumman

Closing Bell: Stocks up, but feel mixed; BIIB, DBD, FDRY, JDSU, SYMC

Despite a negative GDP report coming in at -0.3% to begin that start of the recession, stocks actually spent most of the day in the black. The Treasury has finally started paying TARP funds out to large banks, and the second tier banks are next in line. Oil is contained, and an old and haggard looking T. Boone Pickens gave an interview this morning saying he was out of oil but thinks oil will go back to $100.00 next year.

Here are today's closing bell levels:
DJIA: 9,180.69 (+2.11%)
NASDAQ: 1,698.52 (+2.49)
S&P 500: 954.09 (+2.58)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) shares were down over 5% at $39.68 right before the close, but that is better than the -1% at one point after yesterday's close. The biotech giant disclosed a US-case of PML that was detected early via MRI in one of its TYSABRI patients.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Stocks up, but feel mixed; BIIB, DBD, FDRY, JDSU, SYMC

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The charts are amazingly bad

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says investors should be negative, but they have to keep an eye out for rallies.

Have you looked at the charts lately? I still carry them around and, frankly, have been reluctant to sit down and look at one after another the way Helene Meisler has for years and years.

But I have forced myself to do so since this year began just to remind myself that this bear market is a vicious one and you better have a darned good reason to buy a stock because you are most likely going to lose money otherwise.

The charts are amazingly bad. The vast majority of stocks are simply awful. You eliminate the oils, the golds, the ags, you have nothing, I mean, really, nothing. You can see that an Avon (NYSE: AVP) (Cramer's Take) could rally or maybe a Coke (NYSE: KO) (Cramer's Take), and you can make a case for the utilities to bottom on interest rate compares but that's really about it. The banks? They all look like they have no bottom.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The charts are amazingly bad

Analyst downgrades: BBY, COP, DBD, EOG and BKS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Diebold, EOG Resources and Barnes & Noble were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Jefferies downgraded shares of Diebold (NYSE: DBD) to Hold from Buy on valuation following United Tech's (NYSE: UTX) offer, as they do not see enough upside over the near-term to maintain a Buy rating.
  • Oppenheimer cut EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) to Underperform from Perform on valuation, as they think the 20% run-up post analyst meeting was unjustified.
  • Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) was lowered to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan, as they believe Street SSS expectations are too high given slowing sales and secular margin pressure.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst upgrades: LLNW, DBD and CTHR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Limelight Networks, Diebold and Charles & Colvard were today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) to Hold from Underperform on valuation and believes it impossible to know what will happen to the company from here. On the downside, Jefferies notes a permanent injunction means the business is nearly worthless, but on the upside, is the possibility of sale to Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) or a large telecomm service provider.
  • Baird raised Diebold (NYSE: DBD) to Outperform from Neutral citing expectations of a higher bid from United Technologies (NYSE: UTX).
  • Merriman upgraded shares of Charles & Colvard (NASDAQ: CTHR) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the current share price does not account for the potential wholesale value of the company's manufactured inventory and method patent. They believe Charles & Colvard is a potential acquisition target.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • Goldman raised Eaton (NYSE: ETN) to Conviction Buy from Neutral and added Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) to its Conviction Buy List.

United Technologies offers $2.63 billion for Diebold

Maker of Otis elevators and Chubb security systems, United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX), announced Sunday that it had made an unsolicited $2.63 billion offer for Diebold Inc. (NYSE: DBD). Diebold is one of the largest makers of automated teller machines and voting machines, and United Tech's move comes as a part of its plan to extend its security business and presence in China.

United Technologies announced it first approached Diebold about a possible deal two years ago but nothing had materialized thus far. United Tech announced that its current bid amounts to $40 a share, a 66% premium to Diebold's closing price of $24.12 on Friday. The company also said a it may increase its offer if it is sees more detailed information.

George David, United Technologies' chairman and chief executive, stated that the "transaction creates significant and immediate value for Diebold shareholders with no operational risk, while creating long term value for UTC shareholders."

Continue reading United Technologies offers $2.63 billion for Diebold

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The rich can wait things out

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says those aspiring to be rich need to find the stocks that can win now, and in any environment.

Everything's great over the long term ... if you are really rich!

I am thinking that because of the pleasing words I always hear from really rich people on TV: really rich money managers and investors and analysts.

And it's true. When you are really rich things are great. When you are really rich you can go invest in those really good municipal bonds that yield more than treasuries, the ones that you have to buy in $500,000 increments typically, although maybe $100,000 will get you in. When you are really rich who the heck cares if you sit in cash for the next 18 months. Doesn't hurt you.

When you are really rich it is great to have cash and watch real estate go down to prices that are reasonable or be able to go to a bank and say "what do you have in foreclosure?"

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The rich can wait things out

Option update: Diebold volatility elevated into UTX $3 billion unsolicited bid

United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) made a proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Diebold (NYSE: DBD) for $40 per share in cash.

DBD manufactures, installs and services automated self service transaction systems.

DBD March option implied volatility was at 40, April at 36; above its 26-week average 33 of according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Pre-market movers: BA, NOC, UTX ...

Diebold (NYSE: DBD) is up 64% on a takeover offer from United Technologies (NYSE: UTX).

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) is up 6% on news that it won a major military contract for jet tankers.

Boeing (NYSE: BA) is downover 4% on the loss of the jet tanker contract.

Force Protection (NASDAQ: FRPT) is off 20% on news that it will have to restate part of its 2007 earnings.

Deerfield Capital (NYSE: DFR) is off 14% on poor earnings.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of data; dollar's decline in focus

Stock futures were lower this morning, indicating Wall Street could start March with a down day as investors' concerns about the economy continued. Adding to the sentiment is the U.S. dollar, which now stands at its worst level against a basket of currencies since 1973. Also, some manufacturing data will be in focus today.

On Friday, U.S. stocks plunged on economic concerns, the credit crisis and consequently the health of the financial sector following American International Group (NYSE: AIG)'s reported large loss. The Dow industrials lost 315 points Friday, or 2.51%, the S&P 500 dropped 37 points, or 2.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 60 points, or 2.58%.

At 10:00 a.m. EST this morning, after the market opens, the Institute of Supply Management will release the ISM index for February, giving investors an idea of manufacturing activity throughout the nation. Economists expect the index to drop to 49, below 50, indicating contraction.

At the same time, the Commerce Department will report on January construction spending, which is also expected to show a decline.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of data; dollar's decline in focus

Diebold (DBD) unit elects to stay

Diebold Inc (NYSE: DBD) said yesterday that it had failed to sell its voting technology unit, Diebold Election Systems, whose products are currently being used in elections across the country. Instead, the company will allow the unit to operate independently, giving the unit a separate board of directors and possibly even a new management structure.

It's no wonder nobody wants want to touch Diebold Election Systems. Last year, Princeton researchers made a demonstration video on how simple it is to corrupt a Diebold voting machine. The report even highlighted a flaw in Diebold machines that allow a virus to jump from machine to machine, infecting one memory card and using it to spread the virus through other machines.

Diebold's decision to distance itself from its own Elections unit was made in part because of "the rapidly evolving political uncertainties and controversies surrounding state and jurisdiction purchases of electronic voting systems." In other words, Diebold "rapidly" discovered that the public lacked any trust in its product, and it was ruining its reputation. Note the new elections unit will operate under a new name, Premier Election Solutions, and lacks one important word within its title: Diebold.

Analyst downgrades: AZN, CNTY, DBD and DHI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sonic Automotive (SAH), Hawaiian Electric (HE), AstraZeneca (AZN), AMB Property (AMB) and ProLogis (PLD) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Hawaiian Electric (NYSE: HE) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Lehman based on valuation and the regulatory environment.
  • AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at MorganStanley based on the reduced buyback, the $1.6B restructuring charge and potential for Nexium generics in Europe.
  • Citigroup cut AMB Property (NYSE: AMB) and ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) to Sell from Hold citing the tight capital markets and the impact on costs for the downgrades...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Keybanc downgraded shares of Diebold (NYSE: DBD) to Hold from Buy.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 4-03-07: First Data, Molson, Novell all downgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Data Corp (FDC), Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP), MetLife, Inc (MET), GSI Commerce, Inc (GSIC) and Foundation Coal Holdings, Inc (FCL) were some of today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Citigroup cut First Data Corp (NYSE: FDC) to Hold from Buy and AG Edwards cut the Colorado-based Computer Services company to Hold from Buy, following the acquisition by KKR; AG Edwards also removed First Data from its Focus Portfolio.
  • Goldman Sachs removed MetLife Inc (NYSE: MET) from its Conviction Buy List.
  • Bear Stearns cut GSI Commerce (NASDAQ: GSIC) to Underperform from Outperform based on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Jefferies downgraded Novell, Inc (NASDAQ: NOVL) to Hold from Buy on valuation after yesterday's "April Fool's-inspired" rally as the firm believes upside from the initial Microsoft-(MSFT) driven SLES deals and restructuring are priced in.
  • Buckingham downgraded Diebold Inc (NYSE: DBD) to Neutral from Accumulate on valuation.
  • CIBC downgraded Ipsco Inc (NYSE: IPS) to Sector Performer from Outperform based on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

This week's Darwin Award goes to... Diebold!

Tuesday's Brad Blog brought my attention to the famed Princeton Diebold (NYSE: DBD) Virus Hack, last summer's break-in of Princeton University's Diebold touch-screen voting system. Princeton's study found that to steal an election, all someone had to do was gain access to the system and slip a vote-swapping virus onto a single machine, which then had the potential to affect every other machine in the country and -- Ta da! Election stolen, game over.

After discovering the hack, Diebold, which specializes in technology that people use to access their services whenever and wherever they may choose, posted a picture of "the key" on their Web site -- the same key that opens every single voting touch-screen machine in the system. Of course, J. Alex Halderman, one of the people involved in the Princeton Hack, had a friend who discovered the Web page and realized that he could very easily and cheaply make a working copy of that same key right from the photo. Voting security? Not so much.

While Diebold eventually removed the photo of the key from its Web site, it remains to be seen how many saw it and had the same thoughts as Mr. Halderman's friend and how many other voting machines, file cabinets and office supplies are at risk.

Even more frightening, it was announced that Diebold "recently earned certification from the General Services Administration to deliver security integration services that meet the requirements of the Homeland Security Presidential Directive." In addition, Diebold was hired to secure the founding documents of America: the U.S. Constitution, the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights. Maybe it's just me, but the Virus Hack debacle highlights holes not only in Diebold's machines' securities, but Diebold itself. I for one, wouldn't want them working on matters of national security -- if their machines are so easily hacked into, what would that say about our country? I'd like to think that at the very least, our country's security leaders learned a few things from this incident, but I'm going to have to assume that they didn't.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 10:16 PM

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