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Options Update: Retailers' volatility indicates continued movement

Sears Holding (NYSE: SHLD) closed at $50.22 Tuesday. SHLD Q3 results are expected in late November. Deutsche Bank has a Sell rating on SHLD. SHLD December call implied volatility is at 83, puts are at 127; above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. SHLD puts are priced higher than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

Dillards (NYSE: DDS) closed at $3.86 Tuesday. DDS is expected to report earnings soon. DDS December option implied volatility of 145 is above its 26-week average of 85 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $30.69 Tuesday. KSS is scheduled to report Q3 financial results on November 13. Deutsche Bank has a Buy rating on KSS. KSS overall option implied volatility of 84 is above its 26-week average of 64 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Activists look to take the Dillards out of Dillard's

Shares of Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) rose 35% yesterday. But the occasion wasn't a buyout or a great earnings report. Instead it was the news that hedge funds Barington Capital Group LP and Clinton Group want CEO William Dillard II fired over the company's dismal performance.

You can read the investors' letter here -- it was attached to a 13-D filed with the SEC. A quick sample:

Despite the generous compensation that has been paid to Dillard family members, the performance of the company over the past ten years has been atrocious. . . . As significant shareholders of Dillard's, we therefore call upon you to work with the Board's Class A directors to IMMEDIATELY begin the process of looking for a new chief executive officer. We recommend that this new chief executive be someone with exceptional integrity and proven leadership and turnaround experience in the retail industry.

You can read the letter for more detail but the market's reaction tells you pretty much all you need to know. The stock was up 35% on the suggestion that the CEO be replaced -- on a day when the Dow was down more than 200 points. What else do you need?

Dillard's insiders bought a few shares of stock last week, perhaps in anticipation of this letter. But investors are likely to see through it: decades of under-performance are not undone by a few token insider buys.


Closing Bell: Dow ends 2.4% down; DDS, HUM, HUN, THOR, VZ

Today ended up being another one of those days that almost could have been special. Despite futures being lower all morning after the Asian markets slid into oblivion with Japan at 26-year lows, U.S. markets recovered on less-bad housing sale data and an S&P report that said the Christmas of 2008 shopping season may only be flat compared to 2008. Both were bad, but very acceptable for the current poor sentiment. Unfortunately, late day selling from redemptions and the "re-emergence of fears" took hold.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA: 8,175.77 -203.18 -2.42%
NASDAQ: 1,505.90 -46.13 -2.97%
S&P 500: 848.95 -27.82 -3.17%
10yr Note: 102.3438 -0.1875 -0.18%
52-WEEK LOWS
Top 10 Analyst Calls
Technology Sector Upgrades

Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS) was up over 30% at $4.48 in today's final minutes of trading. Management bought shares and insiders want new management.

Humana (NYSE: HUM) almost didn't make sense as far as the trader reaction to earnings is concerned. The health insurer posted earnings at $1.49 EPS vs. estimates of $1.47 and gave guidance of $1.00 to $1.10 after a $0.10 item vs. $1.20 estimates. For 2009, it sees earnings at $5.90 to $6.10 vs. $5.85 EPS estimates. That gives a forward P/E ratio of under 7, yet shares were down 14% at $31.12 right before the close of trading.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Dow ends 2.4% down; DDS, HUM, HUN, THOR, VZ

Option Update: J.C. Penney, Kohl's, Dillard volatility elevated into sales data

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) closed at $31.37 Friday. JCP is scheduled to report September sales data on October 8. JCP October option implied volatility of 83 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $41.47 Friday. KSS is expected to report September sales data on October 8. KSS over all option implied volatility of 65 is above its 26-week average of 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Dillard (NYSE: DDS) closed at $11.06 Friday. DDS is expected to report September sales data on October 8. DDS overall option implied volatility of 108 is above its 26-week average of 73 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Retailers' volatility flat into Back to School sales (KSS, DDS, M, JCP)

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $51.04 Tuesday. KSS overall option implied volatility of 46 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Dillard (NYSE: DDS) closed at $13.05 Tuesday. DDS September option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 65, indicating larger price movement.

Macy's (NYSE: M) closed at $21.62 Tuesday. M overall option implied volatility of 55 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) closed at $40.63 Tuesday. JCP comparable store sales decreased 4.9% for the four-week period ended August 30, 2008, in-line with company guidance. JCP September option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Earnings highlights: Dell, Sears, Tiffany, Talbots, Smithfield, TiVo, Rio Tinto and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Upcoming quarterly reports include Guess (NYSE: GES), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), H&R Block, (NYSE: HRB), Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL); and National Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NSM).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Dillard's, Talbots rise despite wider Q2 losses

The economic downturn has meant lower sales for retailers such as department store chain Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS) and apparel retailer Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB). On Wednesday both companies reported wider second-quarter losses.

Little Rock, Ark.-based Dillard's said it it lost $38.3 million, or 51 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with a loss of $25.2 million, or 31 cents a share, in the second quarter of the previous year. Same-store sales fell 4%, and overall revenue dropped to $1.65 billion from $1.69 billion a year ago.

Results included a gain of 15 cents per share, mostly from the sale of a company airplane, and store closing and other charges of 8 cents per share.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected a loss of 54 cents per share on revenue of $1.62 billion.

Dillard's said cost-cutting efforts in the second quarter were insufficient to offset disappointing results, but that the company would continue to close under-performing stores and cut back on advertising and general expenses.

Shares of Dillard's jumped 48 cents, or 4%, to $11.85 in early trading, before settling back down. Shares are down about 38% year to date.

Continue reading Dillard's, Talbots rise despite wider Q2 losses

Worst 10-year performers: Dillard's drops to bargain-basement prices

In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.

As a mid-market department store, Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) was in the wrong place at the wrong time when a slowdown in spending spread across the U.S. A staggering spike in energy and food prices, as well as a nationwide foreclosure crisis, first hit consumers during the first half of 2007. The middle class couldn't help but notice its discretionary income shrinking with each paycheck, and average Americans found themselves with fewer and fewer reasons to plan a trip to the mall.

What went wrong? At number 21 on our list of SPX laggards, DDS lost 72% of its value during the 10-year period that ended June 30, 2008. The equity's sharpest losses have also been its most recent; after hitting a near-term peak of $40.56 in May 2007, DDS took a 71.4% haircut over the next 13 months. The decline was sparked by a weak earnings report on the 23rd of that month, when Dillard's missed the Street's earnings expectations by a staggering 20 cents per share.

Last August, Dillard's proved once again that analysts were too optimistic. The company lost 31 cents per share in its second quarter, compared to expectations for a loss of just 1 penny per share. In April 2008, the beleaguered department store narrowly dodged a proxy battle by awarding a board seat to a nominee proposed by irate shareholder group Barington Capital. Properly chastised by the sharp decline in its share price, Dillard's also announced plans to shutter underperforming stores, reduce capital expenditures, and ramp up the quality of its merchandise.

Continue reading Worst 10-year performers: Dillard's drops to bargain-basement prices

Retail sales, especially Nordstrom, as economic barometer

nordstromWhat's a tell-tale sign of a recession, and conversely, an indicator investors/readers should monitor to spot when the recovery has started? Retail sales -- particularly at department stores.

Most retailers will report March 2008 same-store sales this week, and Wall Street is bracing for the worst. In January 2008 and February 2008, same-store sales declined at nearly every major department store, including JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN).

Further, investors should watch Nordstrom's same-store sales carefully. The reason? Upscale retailer Nordstrom is a type of quick-reference, or an economic-barometer-in-a-snapshot, of the depth of a recession. If retail sales decline at broader-demographic retailers for several consecutive months, that points to a recession. But if sales decline at upscale retailer Nordstrom, that's a sign that even those with higher incomes and substantial assets are cutting back, which is a bad sign for the economy.

Nordtstrom's customers include professionals, executives and business owners -- including people who make hiring decisions. If they're cutting back, that may indicate they will not be hiring in the period ahead, which is never good news for the economy. Invariably, it means the recession's end is not near.

In Q4 2007, Nordstrom's sales fell 4.4% and earnings per share fell for the first time in more than five years to 92 cents per share. If Nordstrom's same-store sales decline again in March, that's a sign of continued belt-tightening by upper-middle and upper-income adults, and a sign that an economic recovery is not near.

Options update: Dillard's volatility elevated as shares near four-year low

Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS) closed at $15.54. William Dillard is Chairman of the Board owns approximately 24.4% of the outstanding voting shares of DDS. William Dillard the 2nd is the CEO. Alex Dillard is President. Mike Dillard is executive Vice President.

DDS February option implied volatility of 73 is above its 26-week average of 57 according to Track Data, indicating larger risks.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Insiders stock up on retail stocks -- the ultimate clearance?

With numerous retail stocks hitting multi-year lows and daily headlines about weak consumer spending, something is interesting is happening: The people who should know the most about these companies, the insiders, are buying their own stock at an unprecedented clip, reports Bloomberg.

Executives at Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) and Dillards (NYSE: DDS) have been scooping up their own beaten-down stock. Executives at Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) and Chico's (NYSE: CHS) have also been significant buyers.

Is this a bullish signal? Perhaps. After all, it's been said that while CEOs sell their shares for all kinds of reasons, they only buy stock for one reason: they think it's going up. That's a pretty good maxim, but it can lead you astray in some cases.

Continue reading Insiders stock up on retail stocks -- the ultimate clearance?

Newspaper wrap-up: Merrill Lynch CEO discusses merger with Wachovia

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • A former Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) trader alleged that some employees "miss-marked" bonds to increase profits at the New York office's investment banking unit, the Wall Street Journal reported.
  • The WSJ also reported that private-equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co is in talks with UK lender Northern Rock, but has not confirmed it will launch a bid for the troubled firm wrapped up in the subprime meltdown.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) CEO Stanley O'Neal contacted Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) CEO G. Kennedy Thompson last week to discuss the possibility of a merger between the companies, according to inside sources; Merrill's board has reportedly started considering candidates to replace him.
  • The Times also reported that designer Tommy Hilfiger agreed to sell his biggest clothing line exclusively at Macy's Inc (NYSE: M). Under the agreement, Mr. Hilfiger would remove his clothing lines from stores like The Bon-Ton Stores Inc (NASDAQ: BONT) and Dillard's Inc (NYSE: DDS).

Trader sees 10% to 20% decline

Richard Rhodes, professional trader, money manager and editor of The Rhodes Report was one advisor who accurately forecast the recent decline and moved into short positions going into this past week.

And while he sees the potential for a near-term bounce, this week's action leads the advisor to say, "A major trading high has formed, which will lead to a -10% to -20% correction...perhaps deeper."

He explains, "If there was ever a 'bell' to signal the end of an intermediate or long-term rally; we think the decline from the S&P 500 high of 1565 to yesterday's low at 1465 suffices as such."

The constriction of credit and liquidity, he notes, has led to very poor advance/decline figures. As such, he suggests being a seller during any rallies that result fro the "month-end bullish pattern and short-term oversold condition."

Indeed, even in his Long Only Portfolio – a portfolio that as its name implies only holds long position – he now says, "We are going to a very rare, but very prudent 'no position' stance." As for his Long/Short Portfolio, he says, "We are now aggressively short."

Continue reading Trader sees 10% to 20% decline

This week's rumor round-up: Is Packateer on the block?

Yes, it's June already, and as the heat begins to rise, so does rumor rage.

PACKETEER INC (NASDAQ: PKTR)

On the block? If some investors have their way it is. The developer of wide area network, or WAN, Application Optimization systems expects first quarter revenues to fall about 20% from the fourth quarter's $42.7M. Leading the insurgency is "activist investor" Elliott Associates which holds 6.3% of the shares. In a letter to the firm's board, Elliott wrote that the company has "proven unable" to take advantage of its "leading technology." Better to be in the arms of a bigger company? The vultures think so.

GUITAR CENTER INC (NASDAQ: GTRC)

Quicker than you can strum your guitar, this number appears to be up. Up for sale. The information is coming faster than a high strung solo. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is playing the lead. What an auction it will be. For the leading retailer of musical instruments, the stock disappoints, the direct response business is out of tune. A Goldman analyst reportedly said the company is a turnaround candidate, but may sell. Talk about blowing your own horn. We hear the LBOs are lined up right outside the Westlake Village headquarters in California. Everyone have a number?

INFOSPACE INC (NASDAQ: INSP)

How many pesetas, uh Euros, does it take to make about a billion dollars? Ask Spain's LaNetro Zed. That's about what some think they're offering to buy InfoSpace, the developer of tools and technology that helps "regular" folk find content and information on the Internet or on their mobile. Privately-held LaNetro Zed provides mobile phone content and services. What's the hook here that they'd pay that much? Access to the U.S. market, of course. The answer, by the way, is about 800M Euros.

OFFICE DEPOT INC
(NYSE: ODP)


If you just lined up $1B worth of borrowing, which could go up to $1.25B, what would you do with it? Buy something, maybe? Sound like a good idea? Well, that's what Office Depot just did, and may do. Now who are they going to buy? OfficeMax Inc (NYSE: OMX), maybe? Maybe. If true, then, along with Staples Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS), there would be just two biggies in retail office supplies, and the Depot would be number one.

OPENWAVE SYSTEMS INC (NASDAQ: OPWV)

And we're off! The stock has been on an upward trend for about a month. Volume is increasing. Sybase Inc (NYSE: SY) is in the lead to buy the phone browser and messaging company. What about Harbinger's push on the inside? Now it's BridgePort Networks in the pack. Will Openwave overtake it? The field is tightening. Others could move up and take the lead. No one knows for sure how this one gwill end, folks. What a finish it's going to be!

DILLARD'S INC (NYSE: DDS)

The founders may be seeking "strategic alternatives." Eyes wide open, please.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 03:03 AM

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