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Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: MCRS, MU, KFT, CAKE

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded MICROS Systems (NASDAQ:MCRS) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's cost cutting is running ahead of Street expectations. The firm raised its target on shares to $25 from $18.
  • KeyBanc upgraded Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) to Buy from Hold. The analyst believes companies will beat EPS estimates given lower commodity costs, focus on cost controls, and reduced drag of inefficient, new restaurants on unit level margins. Additionally, they believe reduced mortgage payments from refinancing will incrementally help traffic.
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Niagara (NASDAQ:FNFG) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its target price to $15.
  • American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  • Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) was upgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer at CIBC and to Neutral from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.
  • Micron (NYSE:MU) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: MCRS, MU, KFT, CAKE

The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the parade of earnings declines to continue into the final week of February, with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY), Del Monte Foods Co. (NASDAQ: DLM), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) all expected to post lower earnings for the most recent quarter. Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) are expect to have swung to a loss.

Continue reading The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Crocs beats Q4 expectations, but don't be fooled ...

Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) reported earnings for the fourth quarter after the market close on Thursday. The shares were up almost 10% on the news during the after-hours trading session since the footwear company beat expectations by a wide margin. But let me tell you something: I cannot imagine any sane investor wanting to risk his hard-earned capital on this stock. The numbers are just too dismal.

Wall Street was bracing for a loss of $0.56 per share in the fourth quarter. Well, Crocs did much better than that. It lost only $0.40 per share. Great, right? Yeah. Let's look at the top line: it declined by 43%. Does that put the earnings beat in perspective? I sure hope it does. How about the fact that gross margin went down to 44% compared to 56% in the year-ago period -- does that also lend some context?

Continue reading Crocs beats Q4 expectations, but don't be fooled ...

Analyst calls: AAPL, BAC, MRK, NOK, YUM . . .

Analyst upgrades:

  • Oppenheimer upgraded Inter Parfums (NASDAQ: IPAR) to Outperform from Perform on valuation and increased comfort with the company's outlook after meeting with management.
  • Deutsche Bank raised Covidien (NYSE: COV) to Buy from Hold on the company's solid execution and ongoing restructuring, which they believe will drive EPS higher. The firm raised its target to $63 from $51.
  • Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
  • American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) was lifted to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America.
  • Goldman raised Healthways (NASDAQ: HWAY) to Neutral from Sell.

Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: AAPL, BAC, MRK, NOK, YUM . . .

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Nat gas stocks outshine integrateds

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks rise because they're doubly blessed. Integrateds fall because they aren't.

So many people have been puzzled why the major integrateds have not moved with the last $30 rally in oil's spot price. The answer?

They can't take advantage of it.

They either didn't believe, and therefore didn't drill, or they have been so in the crosshairs of sovereign lunacy that they haven't been able to. They didn't have the rigs or they judged that the rigs were so expensive that, like 1980, they would look like dopes when oil came back to $40-$50, where many thought it would. (Go back and check even last year's research for price targets, most of which were from the oil companies' themselves.)

Or maybe it didn't matter anyway. So many of the contracts these companies have signed with governments around the world are either being abrogated or just outright confiscated that you have to ask yourself "Who can invest under those scenarios?" Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) in Venezuela. Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (Cramer's Take) and now BP (NYSE: BP) (Cramer's Take) in Russia. You can't continually invest billions and then write it off because the contracts you wrote don't mean anything.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Nat gas stocks outshine integrateds

Battle of the Brands: The ugly shoe fight: Crocs vs. Uggs!

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

Crocs, those ubiquitous colorful rubber clogs you either love or hate, are perhaps on the road out as a fad. But don't blame the fashion police: blame company shenanigans and a spate of bad PR.

Recent news reports about their safety (Japanese children have reportedly been hurt riding on escalators in their rubber shoes) have only added to the company's woes.

Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) has seen its share price plummet in recent months, reaching an all-time 52-week low after announcing it would adjust its first quarter guidance sharply downward. The company recently shut down its rubber plant in Quebec City due to the slowdown in U.S. retail orders. The guidance adjustment shocked analysts, and the stock began to melt like, well, like rubber. Indeed, this once darling of Wall Street has been brought low from all sides. My colleague Zac Bissonnette follows the company closely, (although I doubt he owns a pair himself) and recently wondered why the company wasn't addressing its safety concerns in its 10K.

Continue reading Battle of the Brands: The ugly shoe fight: Crocs vs. Uggs!

Bloggers' best stocks for 2008: VeriSign, Deckers and Priceline rank

Regular readers of BloggingStocks will find no shortage of stock picks for 2008 on our pages. Steven Halpern alone has compiled about 120 picks from the investment advisors he follows. But plenty of other bloggers have favorites for 2008 to share.

In an effort to consolidate the wealth of ideas into one handy post, here are a few of our bloggers' favorite selections for the year ahead:

VeriSign (NASDAQ: VRSN) is the 2008 pick of Georges Yared (check out how his 2007 picks did). He expects this internet security and domain registry firm to sell off its non-core assets and grow its core business in 2008.

Priceline (NASDAQ: PCLN) is the current favorite of Beth Gaston Moon. It's already had an amazing run in 2007, climbing from about $45 to $120 a share. Looking for a lower-priced stock? Beth recently spotlighted 10 Stocks for Under $10.

Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK) is a stock I picked in a recent video, which Beth likes as well. I think it will continue to surprise to the upside on the strength of sales of its trendy Ugg boots. Zac Bissonnette thinks it will no doubt flame out at some point.

Continue reading Bloggers' best stocks for 2008: VeriSign, Deckers and Priceline rank

Ugg sales stay strong -- How about Deckers?

I've seen too many high-flying fashion stocks crater back to earth to take bullishness with companies like Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK), the maker of Uggs, too seriously. Remember L.A. Gear?

But Deckers has had an amazing run this year, hitting a new 52-week high on Friday, making it a solid triple for the year.

According to Fortune, "Now, analysts are predicting even more upside for Deckers' stock. The reason? While other brands have been heavily discounted this holiday season, Ugg boots, which can cost upward of $200 a pair, are selling at full-price in most major department and specialty stores. More full-price sales mean fatter profits for the all-important fourth quarter."

It's all very exciting but I think investors need to be very careful. Uggs account for nearly 90% of Deckers' revenue, far outshining their Simple and Teva brands.

A bet on Deckers is a bet on the continued success of a pretty bizarre fashion trend -- at 50 times earnings and more than 5 times sales.

It's easy to be bullish when everything is going well, but traders will be dumping this one like they dumped Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) at the first sign of slowing growth. And at some point, won't people have all the Uggs they need?

With about 19% of the float short, it looks like more than a few investors are lining up to bet signs of weakness are near.

StockWatch: Between the Bells with Amey Stone

Looking for stocks to stick under the family Miracle Tree? In this edition of StockWatch: Between the Bells, Amey Stone, business author and editor of BloggingStocks, shares a few stock plays for the holiday season.

Won't your little rocker be stoked if you take a stake in Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI)? The long-time video game maker has had monster success with its Guitar Hero franchise and should enjoy heavy Christmas sales of the latest volume, Guitar Hero III. For the fashionable in your family, Amey suggests Deckers Outdoors (NASDAQ: DECK), makers of the popular Ugg boots. Deckers' shares slipped a little at mid-month but are recently back on the rise.

Continue reading StockWatch: Between the Bells with Amey Stone

Crocs (CROX) lifted by DECK's blowout quarter

CROX logoCROCS Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) is getting a boost today from competitor Deckers Outdoor Corp (NASDAQ: DECK), which is up over 20% this morning after smashing Q3 earnings estimates and upping their Q4 outlook. Where CROX makes ugly, trendy rubber footwear, DECK makes alternative, ugly, trendy UGG boots, so their fortunes may be similar, which is a good thing looking at this DECK quarter. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CROX.

CROCS stock has been strong all year, reaching a high of $72.40 last week. CROX opened this morning at $66.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $65.47 and a high of $67.33. As of 10:45, CROX is trading at $66.93, up $2.42 (3.8%). The chart for CROX looks bullish but deteriorating slightly.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just 3 months as long as CROX is above $40 at January expiration. CROCS would have to fall by more than 40% before we would start to lose money.

CROX hasn't been below $40 since May and has shown support around $63 recently. This trade could be risky if the market for novelty shoes slows down, but that shows no signs yet and even if it happens, this position could be protected by strong support the stock found when it bounced off its 50-day moving average four times in the past 5 months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CROX or DECK.


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Analyst upgrades: KND, FVE, EXBD, DECK and DFS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kindred Healthcare, Five Star Quality, Corporate Executive Board, Deckers Outdoor and Discover were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Kindred Healthcare Inc (NYSE: KND) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe the risk/reward is attractive given good near-term earnings visibility and reasonable prospects for legislation to remove a significant reimbursement overhang.
  • The firm also upgraded Five Star Quality Inc (AMEX: FVE) to Buy from Hold following a meeting with management, to reflect the company's improving occupancy and better cost controls.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of The Corporate Executive Board Company (NASDAQ: EXBD) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company is positioned for strong growth in 2008.
  • Nollenberger upgraded shares of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NASDAQ: DECK) to Buy from Neutral, as they believe the UGG brand will continue to outperform expectations both domestically and internationally.
  • Discover Financial Services LLC (NYSE: DFS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Calyon on valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Crocs (CROX) and Deckers (DECK): An outperforming 'pair'

"It's time to get back to basics; return to those things that everyone still needs regardless of what the stock market is doing," says Jocelynn Drake. "And everyone needs shoes, right?"

The analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research notes, "Several stocks have managed to weather the storm with remarkable resilience. And a pair of those outperformers is in the footwear sector: Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) and Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK).

Crocs, she explains, is known for its colorful slip-on shoes that are made of a proprietary closed-cell resin. She observes, "The security has staged a stellar rally this year, gaining nearly 139% since the start of 2007."

What's more, she adds, the shares of Crocs have marched steadily higher along their 10-week and 20-week moving averages since late July 2006. From a sentiment standpoint, she points out that short sellers are attempting to call a top to the trendy shoemaker's uptrend.

Continue reading Crocs (CROX) and Deckers (DECK): An outperforming 'pair'

Analyst initiations 5-16-07: AXP, CROX, EK, MA and URBN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Crocs, Inc (CROX), Plantronics, Inc (PLT), MasterCard Inc (MA) and American Express Co (AXP) top Wednesday's noteworthy list:
  • JP Morgan started Crocs Inc (NASDAQ: CROX) with an Overweight rating based on the company's strong growth model.
  • JMP Securities upgraded Plantronics Inc (NYSE: PLT) with a Market Perform citing price competition and visibility in the speaker market.
  • MasterCard Inc (NYSE: MA) was started with an Underweight rating at Thomas Weisel citing concerns regarding increased pressure from bank issuing partners regarding fees and reduced cross border pricing benefits. Additionally,
  • Thomas Weisel started American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) with an Overweight rating, expecting increased card issuance migration and merchant migration due to increased pressure on bank fees and increasing consumer demand for rewards...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 05:48 AM

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