After Monday, there are probably no more doubters left. We are in a bear market and we are in a recession and anyone arguing otherwise is living in a made-up world. The only thing left to argue over is how to get out of this dire situation, and how long it will last. Looking at stocks since the beginning of the year, and over the past month since the feds seized Fannie and Freddie, the picture isn't pretty. Many familiar names have vanished, many -- luckily -- have just seen their market value cut about in half. What once were some large stocks are now some of the smaller ones, including some DJIA components.
The following list is of selected familiar names and large stocks that have plunged significantly over these time periods. It does not include the obvious names such as AIG, Wachovia, GM and the likes, but decent stocks we all liked and knew over the years. By comparison, the Dow industrials is down 25% year-to-date, the S&P 500 down 28% during the same time and the Nasdaq Composite down nearly 30%. Over the past month (since the Fannie/Freddie rescue), the Dow declined over 11%, the S&P 500 declined nearly 15% and the Nasdaq declined over 17%.
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) -- aluminum giant Alcoa is feeling the pains of a global economic slowdown and higher costs even as aluminum prices remain high. Alcoa shares hit a 10-year low Monday. YTD, AA market value has been cut in half, and over the past month alone Alcoa lost 36% of its value.
American Express (NYSE: AXP) -- the credit card company had large exposure to bad loans that affected its results. With analysts expecting credit card debt to be the next shoe to drop, AXP may see its stock fall more than the 42.2% it already has YTD. It plunged 23.68% this past month.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- even this consumer tech darling couldn't escape the claws of the bears as worries over demand for its products increased. AAPL, one of the stocks that actually had a positive day Monday and closed at $98.14, is down 50.45% YTD, 38.73% this past month.
Sure, with news of a $700 billion bailout in flux (now rejected), banks failing and an overwhelming credit crunch, news regarding the tech sector may be a little obscured. But it's enough to see the Nasdaq's 4.7% 9.14% decline -- a triple digit decline day for the Nasdaq and an over two-year low!!! -- to the Dow's 2.7% 6.98% decline to see that the real story is now bigger than Wall Street.
[Quotes updated for closing prices].
Remember, this incredible financial crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. Even with the bailout, the U.S. economy will not escape a recession. Similarly, global economies are feeling the pinch. And with economic hardships consumer and company spending goes out the window for anything from consumer electronics to company IT and advertising spending.
They all plunged today: from software: Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) - down about 2.5% 8.7%, Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) - down nearly 3% 9%, to internet stocks: Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) - down over 7.3% 11.6% setting a 52-week low below $400 a share, Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) - down 10.7%%, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) - down 5% 10.4% and setting new 52-week low, eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) - down about 5.7% 11.6% and in danger of setting a new 52-week low today as well, to hardware stocks: Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) - down over 4% 9.3%%, Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) - down about 3% 6.8%, Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) - down over 4% 10%, IBM (NYSE: IBM) - down about 3% 4.1%, Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) - down over 4.5% 8.5%.
Indeed, several analysts issued reports noting concern about demand for high-tech products in the slowing economy. Doug Reid of Thomas Weisel cut back his estimates for Hewlett-Packard and Dell among others. Analysts for RBC Capital also cut down estimates for several technology firms for the same reasons.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) said this week that it would be switching all of its laptop PC models to LED-backlit screens by 2010. This is part of Dell's movement to manufacture greener PCs, as LED screens don't have mercury inside and use 43% less energy (for a standard 15" screen). It will begin offering only LED screens in some models beginning this December, and will have all laptop screens using this technology by 2010.
Currently, Dell -- like most manufacturers -- uses fluorescent lamps to give a backlight to its laptop screens. Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) recently said that it also plans to replace all screens in its various laptop PC models"eventually," but with Dell giving dates, no doubt other manufacturers will come out with similar announcements and roadmaps soon.
Expect more electronics manufacturers and retailers to continually find ways to cut waste, conserve electricity and use parts that don't contaminate the environment. Not only is this a smart decision from an environmental perspective, it's also good for business. In a commodity business like PCs, differentiating oneself by marketing "green" bullet points may just get your PC sold over the one sitting a foot away on a display shelf. That is, until all your competitors have the same advantages as you. Then, it will be on to the next differentiator.
Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) has been known in the last three of four years as a "me too" PC manufacturer. Sure, it was the world's largest PC maker until rival Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) stole that crown in 2006 and hasn't looked back. When Dell founder Michael Dell came back to the CEO spot in January 2007, his resultant changes has given Dell the push it needed. Some changes, though, are just plain head-scratching.
Unlike the gutsy and excellent move back onto the retail shelf, Dell announced last week that it would allow DVD-quality downloads from partner CinemaNow to be downloaded and then burned to a special "Qflix" DVD hardware drive. This new drive will apparently sell for $120 and will be available as an option on most newer Dell laptop models. The question is this: does Dell really see a market need for yet another DVD standard to allow the 10-step process of getting digital content from a partner to a DVD disc for some kind of archival purpose by any of its customers?
The point here is that Dell wants to be the customer's source for downloading actual DVD content (complete with menus, alternate audio and all the other DVD goodies) to your PC. Unless you're extremely patient, I can only imagine the length of time it will take to "download" all this to a Dell PC. Perhaps a workday? The point is that until we have a huge increase in broadband internet speeds in the U.S. for the consumer market and consumers expect functionality like this to be free, something like this will flop except for the early adopter and geek crowd. But hey, that's never stopped a PC maker from exploring odd niche product categories before, right?
Today was another wild day; it was hard to feel good despite the late day rally. The FOMC decided unanimously to hold interest rates. That was initially greeted with disappointment but, as with most scheduled FOMC rate decision reactions, that sentiment reversed despite the fact that the FOMC is still talking about inflation.
Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 11,063.01 (+145.50; +1.33%) NASDAQ 2,202.36 (+22.45; +1.03%) S&P500 1,214.06 (+21.36; +1.79%) 10YR T-NOTE 3.4910% (+0.008%) 52-Week Lows
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) may have some safety net after all as the Fed and regulators are meeting with AIG regarding an extended loan package for the AIG liquidity crunch. There were also reports that Hank Greenberg may step up to the plate and take it over. Shares were "only" down 15% right before the close today. Over 1 billion shares traded hands.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) was down 2% right before the close after the company actually beat earnings. The problem is that their great earnings days are not here right now and traders still want to bet against financial stocks.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) was down over 11% right at the close today at $15.97 after the company warned that it was not seeing a recovery that it expected.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) announced it was looking at cutting up to 25,000 jobs in the EDS integration. That might not sound like a growth move, but it is a cost-cutting one. Shares were up over 7% at $48.62 in the minutes before the closing bell.
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Goldman Sachs removedApple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) from its conviction buy list. I've jested in the past that this list tends to have little conviction itself. At any rate, I'm still in a holding pattern on AAPL as it moves closer to levels that I really find attractive -- $125 and lower.
Though the stock made a nice turn off lows, AAPL appears to be assessing whether the Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) news will have a material spillover effect. Some of DELL's weakness is due to AAPL so we will have to see how much macro driven issues affect AAPL's peak season growth. Piper noted that AAPL is in need of a Mac refresh -- this is true and is in the works.
Meanwhile, T-Mobile (NYSE: DT) has announced it will start selling Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android-based phones. Time will tell if this hits the iPhone's growth, but I don't suspect it will.
In a press release issued this morning, Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) warned investors that it is "seeing further softening in global end-user demand in the current quarter."
More optimistically, the company noted that "grew unit shipments faster than the industry in the first half of calendar 2008 and expects to grow faster than the industry for the full year."
That's bad for competitors with weaker brands such as Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ). Dell is struggling to meet its growth targets in the face of weakening demand, even as it gains market share. How badly are the companies that are doing average relative to their peers doing?
Dell's press release is more of a commentary on the market than the company itself although, in pre-market trading, it helped send Dell shares down nearly 7%.
American Int'l (NYSE: AIG) is recently trading at $2.92 in pre-open, below its close of $4.76. AIG had its credit ratings lowered by Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service. AIG October 2.5 straddle closed at $4.90 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Dell (NYSE: DELL) is recently trading at $17 in pre-open trading, below its close of $17.99. DELL says: "seeing further softening in global end-user demand in the current quarter." DELL over all option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
U.S. stock futures were lower this morning, indicating stocks could start the day with losses, a day after the worst session in years. While Goldman Sachs is set to release results, many eyes will focus on the Federal Reserve as it meets Tuesday. The market is betting on a rate cut soon, although perhaps not this meeting. Meanwhile, the Labor Department will release August Consumer Price Index. As global stock markets followed Wall Street's lead with losses of their own, oil prices took another dip to about $92 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), one of the few independent brokers left after Lehman's demise and one that is now mentioned as a possible "next" will release its fiscal third-quarter earnings before the bell. Goldman's troubles have not been as deep as other financial companies, but no one expects Goldman to have stellar earnings.
And as expected, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) was hit by a wave of downgrades by credit-rating agencies. The new ratings are all still considered investment grade,but this only adds to the pressure on AIG as it seeks billions of dollars to strengthen its balance sheet. AIG stocks is sinking another 42% in pre-market trading.
Standard & Poor's also downgraded Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM)'s credit rating to junk status, citing the deteriorating housing market. WaMu shares are slipping yet another 15% in pre-market trading.
Staying with financials problems, General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) shares hit a five and half year low on concern over its financial arm.
U.S. stock futures were higher Tuesday morning, pointing to a continuation of Monday's strong rally, albeit with more moderate gains, as the government takes over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Investors will eye data on pending home sales and wholesale trade due at 10:00 a.m. today, and will also be interested in the OPEC meeting as oil resumed its decline.
Meanwhile, British natural gas producer BG Group PLC abandoned its hostile takeover bid for Origin Energy Ltd., Australia's second-largest power retailer, on Monday, after Origin announced a $7.9 billion coal seam liquefied natural gas joint venture with ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).
In what seems to be appropriate on a day housing data is on tap, Credit Suisse downgraded four U.S. homebuilders -- Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) and KB Home (NYSE: KBH) -- to Neutral from Outperform due to lower traffic and valuation. The broker also said home prices need to fall 9% further and credit availability must improve to spur sales and restore affordability.
Staying with analyst calls:
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was downgraded by Merrill Lynch to Neutral from Outperform, citing valuation.
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) was upgraded by Bernstein from Market Perform to Outperform.
Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB) was upgraded by Citigroup from Hold to Buy. The target prices was upped from $60 to $71.
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was initiated by Stanford Research with Hold and $26 target price.
The Wall Street Journalreported that a panel of medical experts think Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)'sproposed osteoporosis drug should be restricted to women at high risk of fractures.
In recent years (until about the end of 2007), Dell's formulaic "me too" stance in non-PC electronics like flat-screen televisions, MP3 players and others have fallen flat on their respective faces. When the company saw the market for PDAs dissolving into nothing, it stopped making its Axim line of Windows Mobile PDAs -- which were regarded by some as some of the nicer ones on the market. Yet, it has not replaced that PDA line with a smartphone that is very powerful but features voice calling plus 3G wireless data. In other words, it's way behind the market here. Ask Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) about its iPhone sales for more elaboration on this.
Dell himself stated at the Citigroup conference, "I think you will see us with small screen devices ... you'll see us with smaller and smaller devices that have capabilities of the devices you are referring to. Not in the near-term." What does that mean? Sometime in 2010 we'll see Dell with another me-too smartphone that's cookie-cutter and years behind the competition? If that's the plan, Dell's new smartphone had better be game-changing like Apple's iPhone was in 2007. If not, Dell's history of making commodity products will ring up another boring (but sellable and profitable) semi-winner.
Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) wants out of the business of owning factories that make PCs. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Dell has approached contract computer manufacturers with offers to sell the plants." Owning the manufacturing facilities cuts Dell's margins.
Analysts believe that in the current environment, where laptops have taken the lead in PC market share, owning facilities that pump out massive numbers of desktops is no longer practical.
Dell could be making a huge mistake in the name of short-term profitability. The company is particularly good at delivering "custom-made" computers quickly. Dell customers can configure the PCs with a large number of special features.
More importantly, Dell will lose some level of quality control if its manufacturing is owned by outside interests. Dell cannot afford to fall behind Hewlett-Packard (NASDAQ: HPQ) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) in terms of the consumer's perception of product quality. Owning factories may hurt profits a bit, but Dell's reputation as a first class provider of PCs is priceless.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
U.S. stock futures are pointing to further declines following a rough session where the Dow plunged 344 points and ahead of the jobs report mostly feared to show weakness in the labor market. Non-farm payroll is expected to show a job loss of 75,000 but the unemployment remain unchanged. Meanwhile, international markets sank following U.S. markets. Also affecting mood this morning is Goldman's call to sell Merrill Lynch.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) to Sell from Neutral and added the firm to its conviction sell list. MER stock is plunging 6.6% in pre-market trading. Goldman said valuation and the likelihood of further write-downs are the reasons. Goldman also lowered its third-quarter EPS forecast to a loss of $5.75 a share.
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) shares are shooting up 26% in pre-market trading after Samsung Electronics said it may buy the flash memory maker. There are no concrete announcements or details as to price yet.
And at Boeing (NYSE: BA), the company continues to negotiate with labor leaders to avert an expensive strike it cannot afford. Negotiators and mediators are trying to work to avert the strike voted for by the union during the 48 hour extension.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Shanda Interactive (NASDAQ: SNDA) to Outperform from Perform following the company's better-than-expected quarter to reflect its growth acceleration in the casual games platform and margin improvements.
SAIC (NYSE: SAI) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform following the solid Q2 report and guidance.
Susquehanna upgraded Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) to Positive from Neutral citing positive August comps, revised merchandising, easier comps, and solid financial position.
Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Analyst downgrades:
Morgan Stanley downgraded the Semiconductor Capital Equipment sector to In-Line from Attractive citing optimistic expectations for Q4 orders following the recent bounce in stocks. The firm downgraded Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) to Underweight from Overweight and KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) KLAC to Equal Weight from Overweight.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has been building new chips for "netbooks," a product that is much smaller than most laptops and significantly less powerful. Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) has decided to drink that water and bring out a netbook of its own.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "One person familiar with the matter said the new device will likely sell for less than $400."
The launch is a waste of time and money. The smallest laptops now weigh under two pounds and have modest processors. That means the price points for them will keep dropping.
Over in the smartphone industry, companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are putting out more "computer-like" products each year. Larger handset companies are working to get into the same business because the higher price points of these handsets yield a better margin.
Dell should stick to what it does well. The "netbook" has too much competition and no future.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
After Monday, there are probably no more doubters left. We are in a bear market and we are in a recession and anyone arguing otherwise is living in a made-up world. The only thing left to argue over is how to get out of this dire situation, and how long it will last. Looking at stocks since the beginning of the year, and over the past month since the feds seized Fannie and Freddie, the picture isn't pretty. Many familiar names have vanished, many -- luckily -- have just seen their market value cut about in half. What once were some large stocks are now some of the smaller ones, including some DJIA components.
Sure, with news of a $700 billion bailout in flux (now rejected), banks failing and an overwhelming credit crunch, news regarding the tech sector may be a little obscured. But it's enough to see the Nasdaq's 
Today was another wild day; it was hard to feel good despite the late day rally. The FOMC decided unanimously to hold interest rates. That was initially greeted with disappointment but, as with most scheduled FOMC rate decision reactions, that sentiment reversed despite the fact that the FOMC is still talking about inflation. 
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit 
In a 
American Int'l
U.S. stock futures were lower this morning, indicating stocks could start the day with losses, a day after the worst session in years. While Goldman Sachs is set to release results, many eyes will focus on the Federal Reserve as it meets Tuesday. The .gif){kind=logo}
Is the market always right?
Comfort Zone Investing: How this all might play out
Stock picks and pans for troubled times: AAPL, COST, EWBC, IBM, YUM, PG ...
