When it comes to credit-card businesses, I'm partial to Visa, Inc. (V). Even so, I have to give my respect today to Discover Financial Services (DFS). At the time of this writing, the stock was up 4.5% to $23.26. Volume was strong. Furthermore, a new 52-week high of $23.46 was recorded earlier in the day (by the time this is published, it's possible the high quote will be different).

The stock has been a good holding over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $12.11, and the one-year chart shows strength. This name is heading for a double. Is it too late to buy?

Quarterly reports from Oracle (ORCL), Discover (DFS) and Tiffany (TIF) will highlight news on the earnings front this week.

Elsewhere on the economic calendar, the focus will be on housing, with existing home sales data due from the National Association of Realtors on Monday, new home sales numbers from the Census Bureau on Wednesday and data on housing starts released on Thursday.

Also watch for durable goods orders in February and the final GDP for the fourth quarter.

Pay-by-phone technology may be making big moves with Google Inc. (GOOG).

According to rumors, Google plans to begin testing its new mobile phone-based payment service in New York and San Francisco in the next four months. The system, developed by VeriFone Systems (PAY), will allow mobile phones equipped with near-field-communication (NFC) technology to simply tap the phone against the register to complete the transaction.

Founded in 1950, New York based American Express (AXP) is a leading global financial services company offering card payment products and travel-related services to consumers and businesses across the globe. It is now the third largest player in the U.S. in terms of card transaction volumes after Visa (V) and MasterCard (MC). It also competes with other financial institutions that have credit card services like Discover Financial (DFS) and Capital One (COH).

Founded in 1950, New York-based American Express (AXP) is a leading global financial services company offering card payment products and travel-related services to consumers and businesses across the globe. It is now the third largest player in the US in terms of card transaction volumes, after Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). It also competes with other financial institutions that have credit card services like Discover Financial (DFS)and Capital One (COF).

What differentiates American Express from MasterCard and Visa is its relatively more affluent customer base, which it maintains by offering generous benefits and reward programs. Since American Express brings higher spending consumers to merchants, it can charge a higher commission (known as the interchange fee) on sales. Also, unlike Visa and MasterCard, American Express only issues charge and credit card products but not debit cards, which have been gaining widespread acceptance over the past couple of years. With these critical differences in mind, we explore the opportunities that lie ahead for American Express in an evolving macroeconomic environment.

Our price estimate is $47.16, which is just slightly higher than the current market price.

Impact of Regulatory Reforms

The Obama Administration in February 2010 passed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act, or the CARD Act which enforces more disclosure about interest rates, caps on service fees, grace periods and also makes it difficult for people under the age of 21 to obtain cards. All this is expected to negatively impact the growth in the number of cards in use but lead to lower net write-off rates and defaults by card members.

The Durbin Amendment, enacted in July 2010, granted the Fed the power to control the levels of this fee. In December, the Fed enforced one such limit - 12 cents per debit card transaction. While this adversely affects the two largest card payments-processing networks Visa and MasterCard, which also issue debit cards, we believe it presents upside opportunity for American Express as credit cards would gain prominence over debit cards, at least from the issuers' end.

Improving Economic Conditions

The macroeconomic conditions are improving in the US, albeit at a slow pace. The unemployment levels are still close to historical high levels but on a downward slope, declining from 9.8% in November 2010 to 9.4% in December 2010. Consumer spending has picked up and so have the corresponding card transactions.

Household purchases, which constitute about 70% of the economy, grew at 4.4% in December 2010, the highest since the first quarter of 2006.American Express' card delinquency rates (the proportion of outstanding balances past the due date to total balances) continues to decline month on month to 2.1% from 2.5% in the previous quarter. Charge-offs (the loans deemed uncollectible and hence, written-off) also declined from 5.2% to 4.4% over the same period. Improvements in macroeconomic conditions hint at more relaxed card-issuing criteria and higher credit limits.

If spending increases more than we currently forecast, this could improve our price estimate. Drag the trend line in the modifiable chart above to see the impact. For example, a 5% increase in annual spending in 2012 per customer translates to around a 2% improvement in our price estimate.

See our estimates for American Express.

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Southwest Airlines (LUV) is hosting an analyst meeting on December 16. Overall option implied volatility of 31 is below its 26-week average of 35, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Discover Financial Services (DFS) is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on December 16. Overall option implied volatility of 37 is near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

FedEx Corp. (FDX), the world's leading package delivery service and an ostensible bellwether of the U.S. economy, will dance its way onto the earnings stage this week. Also, with the holiday shopping season well underway, Best Buy Co. (BBY) and Discover Financial Services (DFS) are scheduled to offer up their most recent quarterly results.

Here's a closer look at what the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting from these three, plus a peek at the week's economic calendar.

Analyst Upgrades

• Sapient (SAPE) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Kroger (KR) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Harman (HAR) to overweight from neutral and Deutsche Bank (DB) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Savient (SVNT) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• LabCorp (LH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) and Landstar System (LSTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Essex Property Trust (ESS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Host Hotels (HST) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• SPX Corp. (SPW) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Eaton (ETN) to conviction buy from neutral.
• AECOM Technology (ACM) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Hologic (HOLX), Gen-Probe (GPRO) and Qiagen (QGEN) to overweight from neutral.
• GeoMet (GMET) was upgraded to accumulate from neutral at Global Hunter.
• Accretive Health (AH) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Reinsurance Group (RGA) to overweight from equal weight.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Clearwire (CLWR) to neutral from underperform.

Discover Financial Services (DFS) is trading higher this afternoon after the credit-card entity reported numbers for the fiscal third quarter. At the time of this writing, the stock was up 2.4% to $15.95. Volume was very strong.

The shares have traded in a narrow range over the last twelve months. The 52-week low is $12.11 while the 52-week high is $17.36. The chart shows a nice trading vehicle for those who like to buy and sell on a short-term basis.

I found a rather interesting article on Bloomberg, one discussing the potential of smartphones to replace credit cards. Supposedly, both AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and perhaps T-Mobile, may work with Discover Financial Services (DFS) and Barclays (BCS) in Atlanta and three other cities to test a system allowing consumers to pay with the "wave of a smartphone." This move would be the largest effort to attempt mobile payments in America and could serve to cut into credit card use.

Crone Consulting, a credit card consultant, noted that such a move could be a "game-changer" as far as credit cards are concerned. Think of how much such a move could cut into the market share for credit cards. According to the article, Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) handled 82% of U.S. consumer spending a year ago (that is $2.45 trillion). Now imagine that smartphone users have the ability to simply pass their phone over a reader in order to pay for their purchases.

Visa (V), which competes with American Express (AXP), Discover Financial Services (DFS), and MasterCard (MA), is probably one of the best long-term ideas out there, in my opinion. Credit and debit cards will always play a vital role in the financial culture, and Visa is a top brand in the space.

The equity's 52-week high stands at $97.19. It closed yesterday at $93.61, up a paltry 66 cents, or 0.7%. The stock wasn't rocking into the earnings report, which was released after the bell. And it's pulled back a little from the 52-week high. So what? The one-year chart looks attractive to my eye, and even if it didn't, this is one story I'm fully behind.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) received an analyst's downgrade following its disappointing earnings report and guidance.
• Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. (CBI) improved earnings prospects prompted one analyst to upgrade the stock.
• Cintas Corp. (CTAS) lower Q3 earnings topped analysts' expectations, and it reiterated its Q4 earnings guidance.
• CRA International Inc. (CRAI) received an analyst's downgrade following its earnings results for Q1.
• Discover Financial Services (DFS) reported a net loss for Q1 due to a needed boost to its loan loss reserves.