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• Bearish on Banks: TheStreet Says
• Citigroup, Bank of America Smeared Again: Today's Outrage

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says stocks connected to the sector will take it on the chin if the housing index falls further.

A perusal of the charts this weekend shows something surprising: The weakest group out there has been the homebuilders for several weeks now. KB Home (NYSE: KBH) (Cramer's Take), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) have simply been a horror show. What's going on here? How can these stocks be so dangerous when mortgage rates have crashed through 5%, the level that every banker I talk to says mortgages jump off the table and refinancings rush to be done.

What's going on? This group's tracking more than just mortgage rates. It's tracking employment and news flow and both are terrible.

Analyst upgrades:

• Credit Suisse upgraded Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $55 from $44 based on earnings momentum and a bottom in the Imaging and Printing segment. Note that Dell was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
• Jefferies upgraded Covance (NYSE: CVD) to Buy from Hold as it believes investor expectations are more reasonable following the company's conference presentation and that its Late Stage segment should continue to post strong results. The firm raised its target on shares to $65 from $5.
• Stephens upgraded Home Bancshares (NASDAQ: HOMB) to Overweight from Equal Weight to reflect improved capital levels and a better-than-expected near-term outlook. The firm raised its target on shares to $27 from $24.
• Citigroup upgraded Macy's (NYSE: M) to Buy from Hold after meeting with management as it believes the My Macy's localization is gaining traction. The firm raised its target on shares to $30 from $15.
• Gymboree (NASDAQ: GYMB) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital.
• DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
• Baytex Energy (NYSE: BTE) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.

Much of the focus this week will no doubt be on the FOMC meeting on interest rates and the subsequent decision, as well as on the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, were the agenda will include bonuses for bank executives among other things.

Things will be fairly quiet again on the earnings front as the next earnings season has yet to ramp up. However, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters do have high hopes for a handful of companies that will release results this week.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Cooper Industries (NYSE: CBE) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it believes commercial construction concerns are well known. The firm raised its target on shares to $40 from $37, and coupled the upgrade with a downgrade of Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) to Sell from Hold.
• Credit Suisse upgraded BJ Services (NYSE: BJS) to Neutral from Underperform following its acquisition by Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI). The firm raised its target to $17.
• Credit Suisse also upgraded Amkor Technology (NASDAQ: AMKR) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $8 from $7. The firm expects Amkor to benefit from near-term strength in the supply chain and the mix shift towards higher value packaging.
• Textron (NYSE: TXT) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Siemens (NYSE: SI) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
• Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.

D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) saw its earnings-per-share plunge from a profit of $3.90 in 2006 to a staggering loss of $8.34 last year. Fortunately, the worst is behind us. This year D.R. Horton will probably lose about $1 per share.

I don't like to see any loss, but this is a huge improvement. In fact, I think there's even a good chance D.R. Horton could start posting some earnings gains by next year.

D.R. Horton is also a buy.

Next: Home builder stock #3

The past few years haven't been what you might call a happy time for shares of home building stocks. Consider that the Homebuilders Exchange-Traded Fund (NYSE: XHB) plunged from $40 per share in early 2007 to just $8 per share earlier this year.

Since March, however, things have improved. There are signs that the housing market is getting back on its feet -- or at least, declining less slowly. Existing home sales recently registered their biggest gain in more than a decade. Seasonally-adjusted single-family building permits are up 27% since bottoming in March, while single-family housing starts have increased five straight months and are up 36% since March.

Shares in Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) struggled to hold onto ground gained early in the trading session, a day after the luxury home-builder reported a much larger quarterly loss. Shares rallied shortly after the morning bell on comments from Toll on Thursday that it sees the U.S. housing market beginning to stabilize.

Trading volume hit a peak just before 10 a.m. ET when 95,000 shares traded hands. But a new survey showing a decline in consumer confidence helped push trading volume lower and the stock dipped into negative territory before resuming positive gains.

Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is scheduled to discuss its fiscal third-quarter 2009 results tomorrow in a conference call at 2:00 PM ET hosted by CEO Robert I. Toll. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

Recent good news about the housing sector ought to be good news for homebuilders such as Toll Brothers. Yet, for the three months that ended July 31, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the Pennsylvania-based company to report that its net loss widened to $1.74 per share from $0.18 per share a year ago. That largely due to the fact that revenue for the quarter is expected to have fallen 42.3% to $460.2 million, because of of falling home prices, tighter mortgage lending standards, and rising unemployment.

Most investors got slammed last year, down 50% or more in their investments. Didn't matter if they owned stocks or real estate, they got hammered. Many have to start over. And if they're near retirement, it's scary. Years of patient investing wiped out, gains that were made over a long time disappeared frighteningly fast.

But now it's time to begin fresh, to rebuild. What's the safest way to regain some or all of the losses without suffering another wipeout?

Analyst upgrades:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded PerkinElmer (NYSE: PKI) to Overweight from Market Weight on valuation as it sees limited downside to consensus estimates. The firm raised its target on shares to $20 from $18.
• Jefferies upgraded WuXi PharmaTech (NYSE: WX) to Hold from Underperform following the Q2 results as it believes the company's cross-selling strategy is paying off. The firm raised its target on shares to $12 from $5.
• FBR Capital upgraded J. Crew (NYSE: JCG) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's trend-right product, inventory control, unit growth, and strong management. The firm raised its target on shares to $36 from $25.
• Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley.
• Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• HearUSA (AMEX: EAR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital.

Last week's Fed Beige Book report and GDP numbers suggested that the economy may be stabilizing, and this coming week will bring plenty of economic data to confirm or deny that suggestion. On the schedule are consumer credit, construction spending, factory orders, and pending home sales for June, the employment situation, the Import Price Index, and new motor vehicle sales for July, as well as the ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing Indexes for July.

The week will also bring quarterly reports from home builders Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH), D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), and Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Yet again, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect all three to have narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter. However, they've all tended to post deeper-than-expected losses in recent quarters as well. Analysts also expect to see their revenue down 45% or more for the past quarter. They forecast long-term EPS growth of 7% or more, but none of these homebuilders has a First Call consensus buy recommendation, not surprisingly. Short interest is falling off for Beazer and D.R. Horton, and D.R. Horton and Pulte have been reporting positive cash flow from operations, but all three of them said they had more long-term debt than cash in hand last time around. Mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI) is likewise expected to report that it narrowed its second-quarter loss.

Lennar (NYSE: LEN), whose colleagues include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), reported earnings for the second quarter on Thursday. Since it is a homebuilder, you can expect that it would be a tough one to look at in many respects. There was a revenue decline of over 20%. And there was no profit. Lennar said it lost 76 cents per diluted share.

According to Michael Fowlkes and his earnings preview, Lennar did not satisfy Wall Street's outlook. Analysts were expecting a loss somewhere closer to 63 cents per share. That didn't stop the stock from going up, though. Lennar closed higher yesterday by over 17%. Volume was likewise incredible. Apparently, the market was focusing on the revenue beat.

This week brings a small flurry of end-of-the-calendar-quarter earnings reports. And for the most part, the expectations of the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters aren't very high. Companies expected to report declining earnings in the most recently concluded quarter include America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC).