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DIG this oil and gas ETF

"There is a very interesting situation developing in the oil and gas industry," says Mike Turner. In the Trade of the Week advisory, he looks at the Oil & Gas Ultra ProShares (NYSE: DIG).

"Even though global economies are not rapidly recovering (although they do seem to be on a positive upslope), and even though there seems to be a bit more supply than demand in the energy markets, oil and gas stocks continue to move higher. What's behind this move?

"Oil has become the inverse proxy to the U.S. dollar. As the dollar weakens, the price of oil is moving higher. With the burgeoning debt piling up in the U.S., the dollar looks to be under pressure to move lower for the foreseeable future.

Continue reading DIG this oil and gas ETF

Stock picks and pans for troubled times: ADM, FSLR, GG, CLWR, DELL, MTW ...

If there was any doubt whether the rally at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 was anything but a bear market rally, this week put these doubts to rest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is already down 8.3% year-to-date; it sank 6.2% this week alone (notwithstanding Friday).

This week the financial crisis once again took center stage as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) received a second round of bailout money and more guarantees. BAC is finding hard to digest its two acquisitions, while Citi is splitting itself and is no longer a financial supermarket.

But this wasn't all that happened this week. The fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off Monday; Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported dismal numbers, all the rest followed suit. Even if there were a few surprises to the upside that exceeded expectations, the expectations themselves were already quite low.

Continue reading Stock picks and pans for troubled times: ADM, FSLR, GG, CLWR, DELL, MTW ...

15 favorite ETFs for 2009

For 26 years, at the start of each year, I've conducted an annual survey of newsletter advisors, asking for their favorite investment for the coming year. Until 2 or 3 years ago, their responses were almost always individual stocks and an occasional mutual fund.

Increasingly in recent years, many advisors have found their favorite positions to be exchange traded funds, whereby they can invest in a sector, region, or strategy without the inherent risk of an individual company. Indeed, in this year survey of 75 advisors, fully 1 out of 5 advisors chose ETFs.

ETFs were a popular choice for those seeking global exposure. Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report, selects the S&P China SPDR (NYSE: GXC) as his favored play. (Read the full article here.)

Nick Vardy sees opportunity in China, but also sees potential in a broader range of emerging global markets. The editor of Global Stock Investor looks to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ASE: EEM) as his top idea for 2009. (Read the full article here.)

Carl Delfeld of Chartwell Advisors also wants to own a basket of emerging markets stocks, but only small caps. His pick is the WisdomTree Emerging Market Small Cap (NYSE: DGS). (Read the full article here.)

Jim Lowell takes a similar view -- chosing global small caps -- but adds a further restriction. His recommended ETF limits its holdings to dividend paying stocks. Hence, the top pick in his Marketwatch ETF Trader is the WisdomTree International Small Cap Dividend (NYSE: DLS). (Read the full article here.)

ETFs an also be used to play a specific sector, such as consumer stocks. Leonard Goodall sees upside in companies making the "basics" such as soda, toothpaste and soap. In his No-Load Fund Investor, his top way to play this trend is the Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE: XLP). (Read the full article here.)

In addition to using ETFs to invest in a region, country or sector, these vehicles can also be used to invest in a certain strategy. For example, Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research, chooses the PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation ETF (NYSE: PYH), which rotates its holdings to only include stocks that earn Value Line's top investment rating. (Read the full article here.)

Doug Fabian, editor of Successful Investing, looks to PowerShares DB Crude (NYSE: DXO), an exchange-traded note. While this leveraged position goes up twice as much as the underlying index when it rises, it also goes down twice as much when the index declines. (Read the full article here.)

Paul Tracy, editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor takes a similar approach, but rather than speculate on the price of oil and gas, he looks to ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG), which invests in a basket of stocks operating within these sectors. (Read the full article here.)

The most popular choice in this year's survey was ETFs investing in gold. Both Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing, recommends the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD); it's price reflects 1/10th of an ounce of gold. (Read the full article here.)

Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast, also selects the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as her top investment ideas for the coming year. (Read the full article here.)

Mark Leibovit, market timer and editor of VRTrader, holds a long-term bullish view on gold and opts for upside leverage. His top pick is the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long (NYSE: DGP). (Read the full article here.)

Pamela Aden, co-editor for The Aden Forecast, also sees upside potential in gold but prefers to invest in the companies that mine for the precious metal. Her top pick is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). (Read the full article here.)

For greater leverage (and higher risk), Steve Rawls, editor of Tipping Point Stocks, suggests the ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL), which moves twice the rate of the underlying London gold price. (Read the full article here.)

Mike Larson, editor of Money & Markets, sees downside risk in financial stocks. But rather than try and select which stock might fall, he opts for a basket of financial players with the ProShares Trust Short Financials (NYSE: SEF). As an "inverse" fund, this moves in the opposite direction of the underlying index. (Read the full article here.)

And for even higher risk and volatility, Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Shorts, looks to the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF), an inverse double fund. Not only does it move in the opposite direction of financial stocks, but it moves twice as much. (Read the full article here.)

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

How do you spell Democrat? I-n-f-l-a-t-i-o-n

I've been following the election closely for two years. For the most part, politics is a hobby of mine, but in this year's election my interest went much deeper.

I recognized very early that the 2008 vote would be monumental on so many levels and investment opportunities would abound. I even outlined the impact of the policies of each candidate on the market in an election gallery.

Now that the results are in with the Democrats taking significant control of the executive and legislative branches, I want to drill down and explore one investment idea that I believe will ascend above all the rest.

One common theme with all Democrats is that spending is sure to increase. Democrats are firmly in the Keynesian camp of using government spending to solve economic problems. We will see large government expenditures in the short term from the new administration.

Can anyone say "inflation"?

So much of the market is focused on deflation with current valuations based on the expectation of deflating prices. While it's true that the economy is slowing, I am more concerned about inflation.

Now, with a Democrat in the White House, I am convinced that the way to make money in the market is to bet on inflation. Vast sums of dollars will be printed and distributed into the economy to stabilize it. Doing so will weaken the U.S. dollar, increase interest rates and create inflationary conditions.

Front and center with inflation will be two commodity trades: gold and oil. I am not a believer in gold, so I'll stick to the oil trade. If you want to make money in the early stages of the new administration, I suggest you position your portfolio to profit from higher oil prices. That means owning oil stocks, and there are several names to consider:

Continue reading How do you spell Democrat? I-n-f-l-a-t-i-o-n

Playing oil with the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Adam Warner:

Smarter minds than yours truly have noted that the oil ETF United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) is not the best bullish play on crude here. My understanding of the product is that USO owns futures, and must roll each cycle. And right now oil is in deep contango, which always sounds pornographic but actually just refers to the fact that there's a particularly steep and upward sloped curve in the futures as you go out in time.

I'll take their word for the contango part, but I'm not entirely sure why that necessarily will knock down USO. They'll roll when they roll, and even if the spread is wide, won't it then just depend on what happens in the next month AFTER the roll? I'm thinking out loud here, so if anyone has something enlightening to add on this topic, I am all ears.

I sold and am selling more Nov. puts anyway, so it should not matter a great deal from my standpoint. And I'm not sure I really have a great alternative if I want to do something bullish in oil options.

I don't trade futures or futures options, and as far as pure oil there's Super Double Ultra Octane Special (AMEX: DBO), which does not have liquid options.

There's also Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DIG) and UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DUG), but those track energy stocks.

Time to nibble anew on commodities?

Minyanville contributor Quint Tatro dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Despite the fact that just about every chart out there screams bear market and downtrend, at this juncture I can't justify adding new shorts. It feels like a trap in that the steepness of the recent decline could eventually usher in a snapper that would rip the heads off new shorts so rather than venture into that area, I'll avoid it altogether. The question is, however, whether or not to venture in and with the most recent slide, I'll admit it is rather tempting.

When I look at commodity names in particular, the damage that has been done is breathtaking. It seemed like just weeks ago Freeport (NYSE: FCX) was trading in the triple digits while Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) flirted with $90 or so. Wait a second, it WAS just a few weeks ago. Geesh.

I am of the camp that starting to nibble into the fear that exists is prudent if and only if you have already protected capital along the way, and fully realize you can emerge with a few nicks.

My ETF of choice is the ProShares Ultra O&G (AMEX: DIG) which like so many other averages yesterday, held its most recent uptrend line but has yet to put in a higher high. The risk-reward with a stop below the October 10 lows seems appropriate to me, so I have taken a stab. I will slowly wade in and sell into strength should it eventually come.

The week in preview -- Fun with economics

Sure, there are several earnings reports coming that are going to shake, rattle, and roll, the market this week, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), but what about those all important economic releases? Last week, the consumer price index was revealed for May and showed a monthly increase of .6% as energy was HOT once again, and the overall transportation costs rose the most since November 2007. Core inflation was up only .2% and investors liked the number as it calls for the continuation of a "Fed-Pause," which helped the dollar move up for the week.

New Residential Construction (permits) popped last month on an unexpected increase of the multi-family housing starts. Think about it for a minute and you will quickly realize that as families are losing their homes due to the deteriorating economic conditions, they still need live somewhere. So, the increase of 326,000 permits for multi-family housing makes perfect sense. But, don't be fooled by the fact that these are still mixed into the totals and have skewed the overall stats upwards.

Still, the reports have shown difficult conditions as the total starts have hit lows last seen in 1991. Before that, the lows of this level were seen in 1974. Economists over at Economy.com are looking for housing starts to drop again in May down to 985 million. Since the economy has become the real story (aside from the oil horror show), housing is vitally important, as it is really a proxy for the financial fortitude of the average family. Realize that if they are not buying homes, it is because they don't have the funds, cannot get credit and do not have confidence in their financial future.

Continue reading The week in preview -- Fun with economics

AOL Digs for Gold

According to an AP report, AOL is preparing to dig for gold and platinum bars in Medfield, MA. AOL won a $12.8 million judgment against uber-spammer Davis Wolfgand Hawke in 2005. Unable to contact Hawke, AOL has persuaded a judge to allow it to excavate property belonging to Hawke's parents. AOL believes Hawke buried his spamming-gotten gains near the property. AOL has indicated it will try not to disturb Hawke's parents during the excavations.

This is not the first time AOL has gone after spammers' hidden assets. In 2003 AOL was awarded a Hummer H2, $75,000 in cash and $20,000 in gold bars. In 2004, AOL won a spammer's Porsche Boxster worth approximately $45,000. In each case, AOL later raffled off the booty in a subscriber contest. There is no word on whether this loot, if found, will be similarly raffled.

On the day of this somewhat whimsical news, Time Warner stock rose .03 per share to close at $16.08. Even bizarre publicity can be good.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 08:38 PM

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