With several major developments occurring around the world, many investors may wonder how they could affect their portfolios or their lives. Here are two of the current, newsworthy events and how investors may interpret them.

Libya

The oil from Libya totaled about 2 million barrels a day before the revolution, half of which was exported. About 1 million barrels a day are no longer available to the world. That isn't enough to really affect the price of oil for a long period of time. Plenty of other countries can supply that amount without straining their capacity. But they're unlikely to step in to fill the gap when oil prices are above $100 a barrel. That price should recede once the conflict finishes and a more stable government is in place.

Friday's fourth-quarter GDP numbers offered more evidence that the economy is picking up steam, but one of the biggest obstacles to the recovery remains the stubbornly high unemployment rate. We'll find out whether there's been any movement on that front when employment data for January comes out this week. The Challenger Job-Cut report and ADP employment data are due Wednesday, and the government's unemployment rate on Friday. Another mild increase in jobs is expected, in line with the three-month average, but not enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.

Also look for the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indexes this week, as well as the Chicago PMI and the New York NAPM index. And Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak to the National Press Club on Thursday.

Analyst Upgrades

• Xilinx (XLNX) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Orion Energy (OESX) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Goodyear Tire (GT) to buy from fair value at CRT Capital.
• RadioShack (RSH) to neutral from underperform at Wedbush.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).

Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Duoyuan Global Water (DGW) to neutral from underweight, citing the potential for positive fundamental news flow through the end of the year, and upped its price target to $16 from $9.
• Jefferies upgraded Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) to buy from underperform, expecting a benefit from a significant ramp in EVDO software sales as mobile data growth accelerates.
• Myriad Genetics (MYGN) was upgraded at RBC Capital to outperform from sector perform with a $23 price target based on valuation and potential to be acquired.
• Goldman upgraded Mohawk (MHK) to neutral from sell with a $53 price target.
• Smithfield Foods (SFD) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO capital with a $21 target.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.

On Wednesday, I noted a good short-hand for time-pressed investors who want to gauge whether or not it's a good time to start committing more money to stocks -- the U.S. Department of Labor's monthly Employment Situation report. It receives ample media coverage. In a summary: more than 125,000 jobs per month created consistently? That's bullish for the Dow.

Here's a second indicator: initial jobless claims. However, because jobless claims can fluctuate wildly due to idiosyncratic events (holidays, strikes, weather-related job cuts, etc.), use the 400,000-level barometer.

The obvious question many investors will ask, amid a Dow that surged ahead 200 points or so on Thursday, is "Does this mark a turning point for the market?" or 'Is now a good time to start committing more money to stocks?'

Let's ignore technical indicators for the moment, as more than one bullish fundamental indicator during this long recession -- an economic statistic or otherwise -- has signaled a "false rise" or a "sucker's rally."

The aforementioned contradiction between oil's price and the slowing U.S. economy is apparently being resolved: The price of crude has dropped, and in a big way -- down about $10 in the past two weeks to $74.11 per barrel on Thursday at mid-day.

Crude's most recent push lower was propelled by yet another, disappointing U.S. initial jobless claims report, in which claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000 -- the highest level since November 2009; and by the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey data, which indicated that its regional economy is contracting.

Analyst Upgrades

• Auriga upgraded Leap Wireless (LEAP) to buy from hold following the company's Q2 results and analyst day, citing valuation, longer-term potential for consolidation and prospects for business improvements. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered its target for shares to $16 from $19.
• Goldman upgraded Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from sell following the company's announcement to explore strategic alternatives. The firm raised its price target to $15 from $12.
• RBC Capital upgraded ESCO Technologies (ESE) to sector perform from underperform following the better-than-expected Q3 report. The firm raised its price target to $30 from $28.
• MetLife (MET) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• HSBC (HBC) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at CLSA.

Today's stock market could not offer a repeat of triple-digit DJIA gains. Personal income and spending failed to offer a renewed hope that a major upside was coming from Joe Public in new consumer spending. The pending home sales data is also running at historic lows.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,636.38 -38.00 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,120.46 -5.40 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,283.52 -11.84 (-0.52%)

Top Analyst Calls

If you sense that the U.S. stock market recently seems to trade up one day on a good data point, then trade down the next, when a negative data point is released, you're not the only one.

Further, look for the Dow to remain range-bound, with rallies and pull-backs containing little conviction, until the U.S. economic outlook has been clarified.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke perhaps best summarized the U.S. economic outlook when he termed it "unusually uncertain." Don't misunderstand: The U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace in the second quarter, but conflicting data regarding what's next abounds.

Technical analysts look for chart patterns that may predict further price changes. One such analyst is Daryl Guppy, who in a CNBC article has analyzed similarities between the chart patterns following the 1929 stock market crash and the crash of 2008.

Here is his analysis:

• In 1929, the market fell 49% from its high. In 2008, the drop was 52%
• Following the 1929 crash, the market recovered 46%. After the 2008 crash the market rose 69%
• Following the 1930 recovery, the next leg down following the rebound exceeded targets by 28%
• If this is the next leg down in the current market, he is looking for Dow 8,400. However, if it exceeds his target, he then projects Dow 7,500 in 2010.

Well, not exactly 10,000 times, but it sure feels like DOW 10,000 has been crossed many times this year. The global economic picture is quite mixed: up-and-down, choppy. But one thing we know for sure is all eyes are now on the U.S. domestic earnings, which kick off July 12th.

On June 25th, we sat down with Aaron Task at the Yahoo! Finance TechTicker studio and shared our 6 Reasons the Markets WON'T Crash. Our #1 reason illustrated that the consumer is not dead, and technology companies are surprising lots of pessimists. Since then, we've seen a consequential follow-up of bullish tone on the financial markets from James Altucher to Doug Kass this week.

With all the mixed signals driving uncertainty and worry lately, the consensus has been a foggy windshield with no clear direction. We can't even tell if one of the largest bear market rallies in history is fizzling or pausing.

On Wall Street, uncertainty is certainly a buzz killer for the irrationally exuberant. If you need a towel to wipe away the fog, take a look at Your Cheat Sheet to the Psychology of Market Cycles.

While contemplating where we're headed, let's take a look at some data points that indicate the US has the potential to lead the world out of this recession ...

So, how is that Summer of Recovery working out? Following Tuesday's drop, the market was slightly lower Wednesday morning thanks in part to the ADP payroll report. According to the report, employers added 13,000 jobs in June, falling short of the consensus estimate for 60,000 jobs. This data looks at private-sector jobs only and suggests that payroll gains were tame in June thanks to small businesses that were cutting jobs.

All of Wednesday morning's news wasn't bad, as the European Central Bank (ECB) offer of three-month funds came in short of expectations. This data means that the region's banks may not be as ECB-dependent as some thought. In addition, the financial sector is prospering as the exposure to European banks was made to appear a bit less toxic. Furthermore, Democrats in Congress decided to take a bank tax off the table in the new financial overhaul bill. This move has helped bring Republicans on board and makes the bill look like it may pass.