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Closing Bell: Earnings working against stocks (BCRX, DELL, DHI, INTC, LEAP, PCS)

Today was a very unusual day. There was no real economic data to absorb. And the markets did see some unusual options trading ahead of expiration date at 4:00 PM today. Disappointing earnings kept a negative bias in the air despite a brief recovery into positive territory in the final hour today... Yet the negative close seemed almost a certain fate today.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,318.16 -14.28 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,091.37 -3.53 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,146.04 -10.78 (-0.50%)

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Unusual Options Trading

Continue reading Closing Bell: Earnings working against stocks (BCRX, DELL, DHI, INTC, LEAP, PCS)

The week in preview: Eye on AutoZone, ConAgra, KB Home, Research In Motion ...

Much of the focus this week will no doubt be on the FOMC meeting on interest rates and the subsequent decision, as well as on the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, were the agenda will include bonuses for bank executives among other things.

Things will be fairly quiet again on the earnings front as the next earnings season has yet to ramp up. However, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters do have high hopes for a handful of companies that will release results this week.

Continue reading The week in preview: Eye on AutoZone, ConAgra, KB Home, Research In Motion ...

Lennar's Q2 doesn't convince me to buy

Lennar (NYSE: LEN), whose colleagues include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), reported earnings for the second quarter on Thursday. Since it is a homebuilder, you can expect that it would be a tough one to look at in many respects. There was a revenue decline of over 20%. And there was no profit. Lennar said it lost 76 cents per diluted share.

According to Michael Fowlkes and his earnings preview, Lennar did not satisfy Wall Street's outlook. Analysts were expecting a loss somewhere closer to 63 cents per share. That didn't stop the stock from going up, though. Lennar closed higher yesterday by over 17%. Volume was likewise incredible. Apparently, the market was focusing on the revenue beat.

Continue reading Lennar's Q2 doesn't convince me to buy

The week in preview: End-of-quarter earnings expectations: Nike, Oracle, Walgreen ...

This week brings a small flurry of end-of-the-calendar-quarter earnings reports. And for the most part, the expectations of the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters aren't very high. Companies expected to report declining earnings in the most recently concluded quarter include America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC).

Continue reading The week in preview: End-of-quarter earnings expectations: Nike, Oracle, Walgreen ...

Earnings preview: Homebuilders Centex, Pulte Homes, and DR Horton

Given last week's news that new home sales have plunged and that new home prices continue to fall, what is Wall Street expecting from homebuilders Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX), Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM), and DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) when they report quarterly results this week?

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Dallas-based Centex will report that it narrowed its net loss in its fiscal third quarter to $3.27 per share. In the same period of last year, the loss was $7.94 per share. Revenue in the third quarter is expected to total $895.3 million, down 53.0% from last year. For the full year, the loss is expected to reach $7.36 per share on revenue of $4.0 billion, which compares to a $21.69 per share loss on $8.3 billion in sales in 2008. Centex has posted bigger-than-expected losses in the past five quarters. So the consensus recommendation of analysts remains to hold CTX, though the long-range EPS growth forecast is 9.0%. The share price has fallen 20.0% just since the beginning of the year, and it is 70.7% lower than it was a year ago. Centex suspended its quarterly dividends back in October.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Homebuilders Centex, Pulte Homes, and DR Horton

Earnings highlights: HP, Campbell, Deere, Tiffany, Xerox, Borders and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Upcoming earnings releases include Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Del Monte Foods (NYSE: DLM), Guess (NYSE: GES), Novell (NASDAQ: NOVL), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

The week in preview: Holiday week earnings

The earnings season is beginning to wind down as we have passed the halfway mark of the quarter and the holiday season begins in earnest next week with Thanksgiving in the United States.

Bermuda-based Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) is anticipated by analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters to be one of the biggest earnings gainers among companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week. The oil tanker fleet operator is expected to post third-quarter earnings of $1.97 per share, 86.8% higher than in the same period a year ago, on revenues of $399.5 million (+44.6%). Frontline missed estimates by 6.4% in the previous quarter, and the consensus recommendation by analysts is to hold FRO. While Motley Fool likes its robust dividend, Jim Cramer said in a recent Lightning Round that he prefers rival Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NYSE: NAT). Shares have fallen 52.9% in the past three months, and reached a 52-week low of $25.00 on Friday.

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) is also expected to be among the week's biggest earnings gainers. Analysts are looking for the semiconductor chip maker to report a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $0.44 per share, 31.8% higher than a year ago, on revenues of $661.7 million (+2.0%). Analog Devices has beat estimates in three of the past five quarters, but only missed by 1.3% in the previous quarter. Analysts on average recommend buying ADI, which has a forecast long-term EPS growth rate of 17.3%, which better than the S&P 500 and that of rival Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN). Shares sank to a multiyear low of $16.23 on Friday, and are down 41.1% in the past three months.

Continue reading The week in preview: Holiday week earnings

KB Home: Is it a buy?

KB Home (NYSE: KBH), whose colleagues include D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) and Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), reported earnings for the third quarter on Friday, and as one might have expected, they weren't the stuff of Wall Street dreams. This article gives a nice summary of the release. The loss per share worsened like crazy during the quarter compared to the year-ago data. The loss this year was $1.87 per share, and that was about four times the amount lost in the year-ago period. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that, on a non-GAAP basis in the previous year, the loss was $6.19 per share. The disparity here was caused by the addition of gains from discontinued operations in Q3 2007. No matter, expectations were for $1.22 per share for the current quarter, so KB Home nevertheless missed by a wide margin.

What fascinates me about KB Home is how the stock rebounded from its intraday low. I expected to see the shares in the dumps as I began to write this piece. Interestingly enough, as of this writing, shares are actually up over 1%! I wasn't the only one to notice this phenomenon. Dividend.com also mentioned how interesting the strong price action has been. In fact, at the time of this writing, AOL Finance says that KB Home's stock is up over 16% for the three-month period and up over 20% for the one-month period. What is this telling me? Does this mean I should buy the stock? I also should point out that the stock is not languishing at the 52-week low, either.

Well, it would have been pretty scary to buy KB Home at the 52-week low. But, I say it is kind of scary to buy KB Home now. If you think there is strength with this stock, then I say, at the very least, you've got to wait until it comes down before even thinking of buying. I just can't get myself to consider this homebuilder after seeing it miss estimates. Plus, we aren't out of the bad housing slump yet. The price action does give me pause, and I concede that you have to consider the effect of the discontinued operations on last year's earnings number. Still, it is my opinion that staying away from KB Home is best for now. The final decision, however, is yours.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Deep in the heart of defaults

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the mortgage problem is in the process of cresting, which is why the stocks have largely bottomed.

We are in the heart of default country, and we knew we would be. This is the toughest moment. You need to go back and look at the calendar to realize the astonishing acceleration in defaults. It's simple: This moment two years ago is when the underwriting standards were the lowest, and this is the moment when the defaults will be the highest because the loans are resetting at high levels and most of the lenders, lenders like Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take), are more interested in getting as much out of a borrower as possible before kicking him out than working out the loan.

Think about it.

In the second quarter of 2006, the housing industry was going strong. We were in the 7-million-homes-changing-hands mode, and the vast majority of those homes required little money down, with home equity loans being taken out immediately to pay whatever little interest was being charged. These were the moments of the ultimate no-doc-high-fee loans by New Century Financial, Ameriquest, Resmed (Ditech), American Home Mortgage, Novastar, and of course, Countrywide. This was when the homebuilders' mortgage arms lent the most terribly.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Deep in the heart of defaults

Earnings highlights: AIG, Fannie Mae, Toyota, Warner Music, Qwest, MGM and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: AIG, Fannie Mae, Toyota, Warner Music, Qwest, MGM and others

Analyst upgrades: YHOO, CI, DHI, HTZ and ERTS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Yahoo!, Cigna and Aegean Marine were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Buy from Hold as they believe Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is unlikely to walk away from Yahoo! and that there is potential Microsoft could bid $34/share.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded Cigna (NYSE: CI) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's favorable business mix.
  • Stephens upgraded shares of Aegean Marine (NYSE: ANW) to Overweight from Equal Weight on valuation as they see an attractive entry point at current levels.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst initiations: Suntech Power, Premier Exhibitions, homebuilder sector

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Suntech Power, Premier Exhibitions and the Homebuilders Sector were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Citigroup named Suntech Power Holding (NYSE: STP) their top pick for China solar due to its leading scale and technology roadmap for higher cell efficiency, initiating shares with a Buy rating and $55 target.
  • Merriman believes Premier Exhibitions (NASDAQ: PRXI) can move to the $14.50-$17.00 through the continued monetization of the company's current tours, the launching of additional tours and the value of the Titanic artifacts on hand. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
  • Lehman initiated D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) with Overweight ratings and an $18 target, $31 target and $27 target; KB Home (NYSE: KBH) with an Equal Weight rating and $24 target; and Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV) with an Underweight rating and $8 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

DR Horton (DHI) surges on government mortgage help

DHI logoDR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) shares are rising this morning on news that the Bush administration is working behind the scenes with the home-lending industry on a plan to extend lower, introductory interest rates on home loans. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson with loan servicing companies and other industry executives yesterday to come up with a loan modification plan in the wake of the subprime crisis. No formal agreement was announced, but an agreement could be be revealed in the next week or two. Also helping the situation are comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who hinted at further rate cuts in December. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on DHI.

After hitting a one-year high of $31.13 in February, the stock hit a one-year low of $10.15 on Tuesday. DHI opened this morning at $10.78. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.77 and a high of $11.99. As of 10:55, DHI is trading at $11.97, up $1.50 (14.3%). The chart for DHI looks neutral and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

Continue reading DR Horton (DHI) surges on government mortgage help

Housing starts fall to lowest level in 14 years

Things keep getting worse and builders get more and more cautious. In fact, according to the Commerce Department's most recent survey, housing starts dropped 10% to an annual pace of 1.19 million in September from a 1.33 million rate in August. That's worse than economists expected. Briefing.com's survey showed economists estimated a more modest fall to 1.29 million.

We haven't seen a housing market this weak since 1993 and the future doesn't look any better. Housing permits were down 7% to an annual rate of 1.23 million in September from 1.32 in August. That's the lowest level for permits in 12 years.

This news follows the report that the Mortgage Bankers Association will release today at its annual convention indicating falling mortgage originations and a builder's confidence survey that was released Tuesday indicating that builder's confidence is at record low levels. The nation's builders are hit hard. The most recent to report was the nation's largest, D. R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), whose orders dropped by 39%. Last week, Moody's downgraded Lennar (NYSE: LEN), Centex (NYSE: CTX) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) homes to junk bond status.

DR Horton (DHI) reels on poor housing news

DHI logoDR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) stock hit a new 52-week low today after UBS initiated coverage on the homebuilder with a Sell rating and competitor Lennar Homes (NYSE: LEN) posted a larger-than-expected loss. August's existing home sales data was also well short of good news for the housing industry. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on DHI.

After hitting a one-year high of $31.13 in February, the stock has tumbled, making new lows almost daily. This morning, DHI opened at $13.29. So far today the stock has hit a low of $12.84 and a high of $13.40. As of 11:25, DHI is trading at $13.08, down $0.48 (-3.5%). The chart for DHI looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $17.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 11.1% return in 4 months as long as DHI is below $17.50 at January expiration. DR Horton would have to rise by more than 33% before we would start to lose money.

DHI hasn't been above $17.50 since August and has shown resistance around $15.10 recently. This trade could be risky if the housing market turns around quickly as a result of the Fed's actions, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by a few more months of negative housing news.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in DHI.

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Last updated: November 23, 2009: 06:04 PM

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