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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Playing the bounce

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you can game the psychology of the market if you want, but know the rules.

I see the plan: Every day that the market looks like it is going down we give $10 billion to some bank! It is sure-fire. Did you notice the momentary weakness in France Monday? Quick, cut checks to BNP, SocGen and Agricole. Why not? When ING (NYSE: ING) (Cramer's Take) looked like it was a disaster, giving $13 billion to that one-time conservative bank turned all of Europe around!

Monday, when there was a moment that we looked weak, when it looked like we were going to go from plus 200 to below 100, Treasury let it be known that there is a whole other round of checks coming for the second-tier players. Who knows? Boom. That plus higher oil prices turned the market around in the upside-down world we are now in! No doubt soon Downey (NYSE: DSL) (Cramer's Take) and BankUnited (NASDAQ: BKUNA) (Cramer's Take) might get checks and then everything will go higher.

Oh, and on top of that, we have a new stimulus plan, one specially designed, no doubt, to move Target (NYSE: TGT) (Cramer's Take) back to its moving average and get Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) off the critical list.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Playing the bounce

Cramer on BloggingStocks: We need action

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the government needs to step in and take charge, and it needs to do it now.

We all know it. All of us. We know that the subprime mortgages that Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) wrote in Europe have come back to haunt them. We know that AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) insured a lot of bad paper over in Europe when it decided to "avoid" the U.S. Subprime financial insurance, if you can call its multi-billion-dollar exposure "avoidance."

We know that Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) can't absorb the losses itself.

We know that Downey (NYSE: DSL) (Cramer's Take) and Corus (NASDAQ: CORS) (Cramer's Take) and BankUnited (NASDAQ: BKUNA) (Cramer's Take) can't raise the money they need.

We know all of these things. I think the federal government does, too. We lived in an unregulated time where everyone acted badly and no one protected anyone, and now these institutions have to be dealt with in a way that is the least painful of all the painful ways.

Of course, though, this government has no desire to deal with things until guys like Bill Gross or the Chinese government say, "We are done buying your paper," when it came to Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take). I guess they want a run at the bank of Washington Mutual and they want customers to stop doing business with Lehman before that's sold for scrap, although I must say that the Bear deal worked pretty well for everybody except Bear shareholders.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: We need action

Cramer on BloggingStocks: This bailout is a big piece of the puzzle

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it doesn't 'solve everything.' No one is saying it does.

The biggest canard of all: "This is not going to be a cure-all, nor will it solve the 'real problems' of the U.S. economy." Why is it a canard?

Because no one -- I repeat, no one -- is saying it is. Not even the biggest bulls.

This bailout of Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) is a piece of the puzzle that is meant to stop house price depreciation. It is one of the major pieces. Mortgage rates are being called down big this morning, big, with some mortgage brokers thinking we will lop a full percentage point off of rates. In case you think they are biased, these people had been forecasting a big gain in rates.

What's driving me crazy here is the falseness of the critics. They are all assuming that things won't be happy. It is about being happier.

Let's take Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take). These changes are huge for them. If you owned them, you are going to make a lot of money. Why? Because the competition just got diminished, and the company that was making them pay more for money is gone.

No, that doesn't cure their bad loans. It does make it better!

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: This bailout is a big piece of the puzzle

Cramer on BloggingStocks: SEC paints a target on Downey and its ilk

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says struggling banks can be shorted to oblivion now that the rules won't be enforced.

Memo to the FDIC: Watch your back. The SEC just flipped its allegiance to the bad guys, the guys who want to break not just certain banks, but your bank! That's right, with the scrapping of the emergency rule that eliminated naked shorting, where you don't have to find the stock, and with the end of the vigilance against bear raiding, the SEC may have just caused a run at the FDIC.

I had hoped that the SEC would see that these financials have been manipulated to unreasonable levels, making the confidence in all institutions so low that nobody wanted to give them money. The rule change -- which when you think of it, wasn't much of a rule change as much as an enforcement of the way things are supposed to be, where you actually have to find the stock you sold short first so you don't fail to deliver -- worked!

It gave the system some breathing room. I think the rule change might have saved Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) from being shorted into oblivion so it couldn't have done its deal. Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) didn't do a deal, those bad boys be back on the griddle now for unknown European exposure. AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) wasn't protected in the first place and I believe will need to raise $10 billion to $15 billion in the teens to cover its European exposure. Now there's little hope at all for Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) or Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take), as their stocks will be blitzed into oblivion and Hank Paulson will have to start the planning of cash infusions as opposed to what he said last Sunday -- why did he say that, for heaven's sake? Maybe he's too close to John "We don't need capital" Thain from their Goldman (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) days.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: SEC paints a target on Downey and its ilk

Analyst downgrades: ANAD, AXL and CAT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Anadigics, American Axle and Caterpillar were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Stephens downgraded shares of Anadigics (NASDAQ: ANAD) following the company's Q2 results, as they believe shares could trade sideways until the macro environment improves. The firm lowered their target to $9 from $14. Jefferies downgraded shares to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's lower than expected outlook. The firm lowered their target to $9 from $15.
  • Deutsche Bank cut American Axle (NYSE: AXL) to Hold from Buy to reflect the risk associated with the company's exposure to General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler. The firm lowered their target price to $7.50 from $11.
  • JP Morgan downgraded Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) to Neutral from Overweight based on increasing macro headwinds and likely multiple pressure.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just a squeeze -- at least for now

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if we get fed support for a housing bottom, we can really turn things around.

If I were at Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), today would be a day where I issued several billion in preferred stock or I issued a multibillion equity offering. Why? Because the deed is done; the shorts panicked and covered and took the stock up where it could now be worth doing a deal.

If things are so great at WFC, why do they have to do a deal? Simple: They have a big increase in nonperformers, and when you have a big increase in nonperformers ,you raise capital. Period.

Yesterday's relief rally was not about housing prices bottoming -- I think that will happen next year, not this year -- it was about getting the shorts. The shorts had had their way all over everything. Suddenly you get this surprise smackdown by Chris Cox of the so-called naked shorts -- it's really not at all about that if these stocks aren't hard to borrow -- and you get a dividend boost, something that shorts don't like to pay.

I think today's "upside surprise" from JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) will generate more short-covering. So will Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) when it declares its dividend.

Which it will.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just a squeeze -- at least for now

Profiting from the 150 banks that will fail next?

Last week, the FDIC oversaw the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history -- $32 billion IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB). I thought more would be on the way and this morning's New York Times estimates that 150 of the 7,500 U.S. banks will fail in the next 12 to 18 months. The FDIC only has $53 billion in its fund to cover bank failures so it is going to be needing much more cash, which it may get from raising insurance rates. No doubt those of us with bank accounts will pay the price.

For those looking to profit from this failure, it's time to get a hold of the FDIC's problem bank list and start estimating the ones that are most likely to get taken over. Here are some hints: look at their mortgages as a percent of total loans, their cash flow, when they have to pay back their debt, and the increase in the rate of their bad loans. The Times mentions two that are probably already on the radar of short sellers:

Continue reading Profiting from the 150 banks that will fail next?

Verizon gives up the phone business, at least for some

Verizon (NYSE: VZ) had decided that customers do not have to be landline clients to get the company's new fiber broadband and TV service. In other words, it is willing to walk away from its core business to move into the future.

According to the AP, "Surveys point to about one in seven U.S. households now lacking landlines." More people are using their cellphones instead of the traditional home phone connection.

The announcement points to the lengths to which Verizon will go to get customers away from cable companies like Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA). Cable does not require that people use its voice system, VoIP, to get cable television or broadband connections. If Verizon wants to match cable packages, it has to do the same.

To a large extent, the news is an indication that Verizon is not really a traditional "phone company" any more. The revenue from that part of its operations is shrinking. Its growth comes from cellular customers, home fiber subscribers, and DSL.

Alexander Graham Bell is turning in his grave.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Things aren't so bad

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there are problems, but nothing looks dire.

The setup is pretty good here. We've got a mildly oversold market with lots of June money expected to come in as CDs roll over and people realize that the cash rates are so bad. We have no earnings news, which is good, given that unless you do a lot of business overseas without a lot of raw cost escalation (think everything from Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take) to Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take)) or you transport or mine oil, minerals and agricultural goodies, you aren't doing all that well.

We have the possibility of some stability in energy, as $130 has been difficult to punch through, even though we have not been able to build any inventories yet despite all we hear about how people are driving less. And the expectations for the employment number are so weak that if we get any job creation we are going to begin to hear that maybe the economy is on the mend.

Again, that's considered antithetical given the sinking home price/escalating food and oil price one-two punch. But, as I said last week, there is a finite nature to the bad loans.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Things aren't so bad

HUGH update: HughesNet puts email back in service

The recently reported three day e-mail blackout experienced by the consumer internet customers of Hughes Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: HUGH) has ended. Although the system has not swung over to its new enhanced version, it appears that Hughes technical staff has opted to reawaken the previous e-mail application to restore that service to its customers. Personal comment from the company regarding this situation was unavailable as of this writing.

What little preview I received of the attempted e-mail upgrade by HughesNet was enticing. It looked streamlined, intuitive and was definitely appealing to the eye. When the company completes its adjustments and makes the hoped for upgrade available, I'll provide my full assessment of the new service for our readers.

HughesNet experiencing an ongoing 3 day email outage

!A simple 24 hour email outage for a system upgrade has turned into a 3 day technical nightmare for Hughes Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: HUGH). Initially, the company informed customers that email service would be suspended for a 24 hour period, from 6pm Saturday, April 26 through 6pm Sunday, April 27. As of this writing, HughesNet email service is still down.

I guess one can live without email for a few more days, even though some might have important data to transmit via email. It's data which could affect one's career advancement. I guess in my case I could hand it off to my ground based mail carrier. However, because I have become quite accustomed to lackluster performance from Hughes Communications, I'm glad I'm not invested in it.

[Note from the author: Hughes email service fully restored in original format as of 04-30-08]

Analyst upgrades: NCC, BRLC and MHS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: National City, Syntax Brillian and Medco Health were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of National City (NYSE: NCC) to Buy from Sell on valuation as they believe their $9.00 target is in-line with the company's franchise value.
  • Baird upgraded Syntax Brillian (NASDAQ: BRLC) to Outperform from Neutral based on recently announced strategic initiatives and valuation.
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's renewed PBM contract with United Healthcare (NYSE: UNH) removes a major overhang.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Friedman Billings raised Downey Financial (NYSE: DSL) to Market Perform from Underperform.
  • Volterra (VNASDAQ: LTR) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper.
  • Alliance Data (NYSE: ADS) was raised at JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Nat City is just a travesty

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this lender gave money to anyone with a pulse, and the shareholders are left holding the bag.

For pure laughs, go read the National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) conference call yesterday, the one where they destroyed what was remaining of their common shareholder base with the partial takeunder by Corsair, an unknown private-equity fund that surfaced to inject $7 billion to save the bank.

We have had some remarkably poorly run banks in this go-round of subprime, including Downey Savings (NYSE: DSL) (Cramer's Take) (takers anyone?) Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take), as well as some nonbank fiascos like E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) (Cramer's Take) and CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take).

But this Nat City takes the cake. They have to be the most stupid and least rigorous lender since the S&L crisis. They have $10 billion in home equity loans that have got to be among the worst ever issued. I swear, I bet that many of these are going to turn out to be out-and-out fraud by the borrowers. Miraculously, Nat City found an even more stupid soul, Merrill's (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) Stan O'Neal, to sell its main originator of this junk to, something that brought O'Neal down and almost brought Merrill down. Some would say that the latter is still in question. I have no idea what would have happened to NCC if they hadn't sold it before the height of the fraud, the first quarter of 2007.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Nat City is just a travesty

Getting your new triple-play or ISP package -- at Wal Mart

There was an interesting announcement that came out this week. It seems that the triple-play package of cable, high-speed internet, and telephony are coming to America's largest retailer.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) are partnering up to allow Wal-Mart customers to select and purchase various Time Warner packages at nearly 700 Wal-Mart store locations.

The store offerings will be in the electronics department or "Connection Center" locations inside the stores. These locations will explain and offer the packages, possibly with a joint purchase of a new high-definition television.

Time Warner believes this will give customers convenient and easy access to its broadband, high-definition cable, and digital phone services. After seeing VoIP offerings in the past, this might not be all that unexpected. But the triple- play package isn't exactly a bare-bones pricing, even if it ultimately does save money for consumers who use all three services under one provider.

For the former "Always Low Prices" retailer, it seems that the old dial-up or low-priced DSL internet access would have been the highest priced offering. Either times are a changing, or US web access markets are saturated.

We are still awaiting the final verdict from Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and Jeff Bewkes regarding its majority stake in the cable operator.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Bring in the sheiks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the sheer number of companies that need foreign capital will keep sovereign funds busy. By Jim Cramer

We need more sheiks!

We need some for Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) and for Merrill (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) and for Bear (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take). And how do you like the fact that Bear says it needs no money and yet everyone else does? How about that for chutzpa?

We need more sheiks for Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take) and for Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take). We need sheiks for National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) and Key (NYSE: KEY) (Cramer's Take) and Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ: HBAN) (Cramer's Take). Any sheiks around for Corus (NASDAQ: CORS) (Cramer's Take) or Downey (NYSE: DSL) (Cramer's Take) or for the Gang of Four -- or do people really believe that Warren Buffett wants to buy one of them? (My sources indicate that what he does want to do is provide some extremely profitable reinsurance to the gang of four).

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Bring in the sheiks

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 01:50 AM

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