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Is DirecTV's use of Chris Farley distasteful? Will it help the stock?

Very interesting story/rant over on WalletPop.com about the latest in a line of DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) ads -- this one featuring Chris Farley. Jami Bernard, the rant's author, is upset that David Spade is using a famous clip from his and Farley's hit comedy Tommy Boy to advertise the satellite-television provider. Bernard argues that Farley would not have liked to be remembered for a minor fat joke.

How was that assumption exactly made? Farley made fun of his size. He made his money by being an oversized, clumsy, fish-out-of-water comedian, so how can we determine that a "minor fat joke" (which some may argue is the funniest part of a very funny movie) is how he would or would not like to be remembered?

Continue reading Is DirecTV's use of Chris Farley distasteful? Will it help the stock?

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DTV, LEA, MT, WMT, YHOO

Analyst upgrades:

  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE: AMG) to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect the rebound in equity and fixed income markets as well as an attractive risk/reward profile. The firm raised its target on shares to $72 from $61.
  • Jefferies upgraded AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO) to Buy from Hold as it believes equipment sales in Brazil are holding up better than expected and farm stimulus should set a floor in sales. The firm raised its target on shares to $36 from $25.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) to Buy from Hold to reflect reduced balance sheet risk and a more positive view on the steel sector. The raised its target on shares to $42 from $23
  • Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • Synovus (NYSE: SNV) was raised to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust.
  • First American (NYSE: FAF) was lifted to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DTV, LEA, MT, WMT, YHOO

Tune in to DirecTV (DTV)

"In recent months, DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) has shown that pay television is recession-resistant; indeed, the company has been dishing up subscriber growth," says Richard Moroney.

In his Dow Theory Forecasts, the advisor explains why the satellite-TV system operator is among those select stocks consider to be "Focus List" buys -- the top long-term buy rating in their model portfolio.

"In the nearly 15 years since DirecTV sold its first satellite-television system, the company has grown to serve more than 18 million U.S. subscribers, or 16% of the country's households. DirecTV also operates in Latin America, where it generates 12% of revenue.

Continue reading Tune in to DirecTV (DTV)

The week in preview: Coke versus Pepsi

It's about that time again: Pepsi vs. Coke. No, not another taste test or another Battle of the Brands. It's time for the next quarterly results from these two soft drink titans.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), global beverage and snack food giant, will report fourth-quarter earnings this week that are 9.1% higher that a year ago, or $0.88 per share. Revenue is expected to total $12.8 billion, which is 3.9% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $3.67 per share on revenue of $43.4 billion, up from $3.38 per share on $39.5 billion in 2007. PepsiCo's earnings met or beat estimates in four of the past five quarters, but missed by only two cents per share in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to buy PEP. The share price fell to a 52-week low in January and is now 24.4% lower than it was a year ago. During the fourth quarter, PepsiCo declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, agreed to acquire a Spitz International, and announced investments in China and Mexico.

Continue reading The week in preview: Coke versus Pepsi

Options Update: Cable / satellite companies' volatility elevated into earnings

DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) closed at $22.98. DTV is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on February 10. February option implied volatility is at 64; March is at 59; above its 26-week average of 53, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Echostar (NASDAQ: DISH) closed at $12.84. DISH is expected to report Q3 EPS in late February. March option implied volatility is at 83, June is at 74; above its 26-week average of 63, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Continue reading Options Update: Cable / satellite companies' volatility elevated into earnings

Closing Bell: Dow, down 770 points, thankfully closed; WB, AAPL, DISH, SLB

Today is simple to call, yet painful. This was at one point the worst DJIA point-move down since the 1987 crash of 21 years ago. Congress failed to pass the $700 billion bailout package and ailing banks are continuing to be acquired in virtual "take-under" mergers where shareholders are getting hosed.

Below are today's unofficial closing bell prices:
DJIA 10,372.54 (-770.59; -6.92%)
S&P500 1,108.99 (-104.02; -8.58%)
NASDAQ 1,983.73 (-199.61; -9.14%)
10YR T-Bond 3.632% (-0.195%)

Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) will survive as an entity, but not as a bank as that is being taken out by an FDIC-backed buyout by Citigroup (NYSE: C). WB shares were down a sharp 82% at $1.76 right before the close with well over 300 million shares trading hands.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Dow, down 770 points, thankfully closed; WB, AAPL, DISH, SLB

DirectTV (DTV) should gain on AT&T (T) deal

DTV logoDirecTV (NYSE: DTV - option chain) shares are basically flat today, but with today's market that is great performance. The company announced a deal Friday after the close that DTV and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) will launch a co-branded satellite television service that will be available to AT&T customers beginning after T's current deal with Dish Network (NASDAQ: DISH) expires early next year. Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but this is a big move for the smaller company and DISH is down more than 13% currently. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on DTV.

DTV opened this morning at $26.05. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.05 and a high of $27.30. As of 12:25, DTV is trading at $26.54, down one cent (-0.04%). The chart for DTV looks neutral and S&P gives DTV a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an November bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just eight weeks as long as DTV is above $22.50 at November expiration. Direct TV would have to fall by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

DTV hasn't been below $22.50 since February and has shown support around $24.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in DTV nor DISH, but he does control a bullish hedged position on T.

Why I have changed my tune about Comcast

Until recently, I believed that shares of Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) had been unfairly punished by investors who were too skeptical about the company's prospects. Now, I am changing my tune because I have come to realize that the future of the company will be filled with endless pricing battles, which will force the Philadelphia-based cable giant to sacrifice the needs of shareholder to retain customers.

To be fair, Comcast reported a decent quarter Wednesday and was able to hold the line on capital expenditures. Net income was $632 million, or 21 cents a share, versus $588 million, or 19 cents, a year earlier. Sales jumped 11% to $8.55 billion. Results were short of the 23-cent forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg but beat the $8.57 billion sales forecast.

Now, ordinarily missing the profit forecast would cause the shares to tank. Instead, they are trading up slightly because investors found much about the earnings report to like. For one thing, Comcast's free cash flow was $1.17 billion, more than triple from a year earlier. This beat the forecast of veteran cable industry watchers such as Craig Moffett of Sanford C. Bernstein. It also reaffirmed its earnings guidance for the year, countering worries that it would be hurt by cash-strapped customers falling behind in their bills.

Continue reading Why I have changed my tune about Comcast

Analyst downgrades: ATI, CRS, HAYN, MOT and Machinery stocks

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Allegheny Tech, Carpenter Tech, Haynes, Motorola and Machinery stocks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Allegheny Tech (NYSE:ATI), Carpenter Tech (NYSE:CRS) and Haynes (NASDAQ:HAYN) to Neutral from Overweight based on the decline in nickel prices and its impact on nickel-based metals demand on valuation, as they find the risk/reward less attractive following the recent rally and increased raw material costs.
  • Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Motorola (NYSE:MOT) to Underperform from Perform after channel checks indicated the company could miss Q2 handset guidance and continued market share losses.
  • UBS said the risk/reward profile for owning Machinery stocks given macro challenges and valuations. The firm downgraded Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Kennametal (NYSE:KMT) to Sell from Neutral and United Rentals (NYSE:URI) and RSC Holdings (NYSE:RRR) to Neutral from Buy. Additionally, shares of Paccar (NASDAQ:PCAR) were cut to Sell from Neutral and Navistar (OTC:NAVZ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy due to weak U.S. truck demand.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Best Buy challenges FCC on analog TV labeling requirement

Consumer electronics retailer Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) didn't really like the FCC's idea that it label all analog TV sets with a warning label -- something I posted on a month ago. In fact, the retailer is now challenging the FCC's authority to require retailers to slap those "Warning: Analog TV" stickers on those retail shelf boxes.

The FCC seems to believe it will be Y2K all over again when the analog television frequencies are vacated next February for all those who receive TV signals via antenna. Standard issue for the federal government, I suppose. Best Buy not only doesn't want to have even more labels and customer communication littering up its stores, but it argues that the fines levied by the FCC for the non-use of these stickers are invalid as well.

Best Buy was fined $280,000 and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was fined $992,000 for failing to include these analog TV stickers on the appropriate products. Wal-Mart had not decided what its plans were yet, but my guess if that it will unite with Best Buy to present a huge challenge to the FCC's authority. Best Buy's biggest argument was that retailers are not commission licensees by the FCC --- so how can the FCC impose fines? There are quite a few more arguments being made by Best Buy that should hold up in a court of law easily if it gets to that.

One would think that the recent FCC auctions of the about-to-be-abandoned analog TV airwaves would give enough cash back to the FCC's coffers than stupid fines like this. Apparently not.

Option Update: DirecTV volatility low as shares near four year high

DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) closed at $27.02 Friday.

Deutsche Bank raised its price target on DTV to $36 and says: "we expect continued strong top-line growth, operating leverage, lower capex, and aggressive repurchases and a resolution of its control issues."

DTV over all option implied volatility of 32 is below its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

DirecTV (DTV) reports surprising first-quarter earnings

Shares of digital television provider DirecTV Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV) have been rallying in early trading as its earnings numbers for the first quarter were better than analysts had forecast. The company also announced its board approved an increase in its stock buyback program, raising it to $3 billion.

The company said its first-quarter profit rose 10% to $371 million, helped by higher subscriber additions. DirecTV was able to slightly come in above analyst estimates, with 32 cents per share compared to the forecast 31 cents per share. Compared to its first period last year, earnings were up, as the digital television provider came with earnings of 27 cents a share last year.

The nation's largest satellite-TV company posted a respectable growth of 17% for its first-quarter revenue, which jumped to $4.59 billion compared with $3.91 billion a year ago. This was above analysts' predictions for quarterly revenue of $4.47 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Continue reading DirecTV (DTV) reports surprising first-quarter earnings

Comcast's earnings and cash flow impress, but wait for a pullback in share price

Cable operator Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), a competitor of DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) and DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH), issued its first-quarter earnings report on Thursday, and overall it was a satisfying set of data. Revenues grew 14% to $8.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share increased 12% to $0.19 (on a reported basis, however, they did decline by 8%). One of my favorite things to look at is free cash flow -- Comcast scored here, as free cash jumped 59% to over $700 million.

I've never owned Comcast stock, and I'm on record as preferring content companies over distribution platforms. That being said, I do have to say that Comcast is a pretty good name in its industry, and that it seems to be doing quite well with its various offerings. Looking through the earnings release, I see that Comcast added close to half-a-million digital cable customers. The high-speed internet service and digital-phone service also seem to be performing (on an anecdotal level, it does feel like more and more people are taking up the triple-play suite that Comcast is constantly promoting). The programming segment, which includes channels such as E! and The Golf Channel, saw revenues increase 20% and it delivered a nice stream of cash flow. The company bought back almost 2% of its outstanding shares, and management plans to buy more under its repurchase initiative.

If you're looking to get in on the stock, I'd wait for a pullback after Thursday's 8% pop in share price. Like I say, I do like content companies, but Comcast might be an interesting long-term idea, since it will probably be the beneficiary of a desire on the part of media conglomerates such as Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) to engage more digital distribution via video-on-demand and to, in fact, experiment with day-and-date release (which I talked about in a recent piece). If this paradigm ever hits a critical mass, then Comcast should do well with it.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.

Analyst downgrades: EGP, TTWO and CLMT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: EastGroup Properties, Take-Two and Calumet Specialty were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • After EastGroup (NYSE:EGP) reported slightly higher-than-expected Q1 FFO per share, Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy on valuation. However, the firm still believes that the company's business model and dividend fundamentals are well-positioned.
  • Citigroup downgraded Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) to Hold from Buy citing balanced risk/reward as the firm does not expect an aggressive competing bid process.
  • Raymond James downgraded Calumet (NASDAQ:CLMT) to Underperform from Market Perform following the company's reduction in distribution to 45c unit from 63c.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+17.4610,023.42
NASDAQ+7.122,112.44
S&P 500+2.671,069.30

Last updated: November 08, 2009: 10:07 PM

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