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Playing oil with the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Adam Warner:

Smarter minds than yours truly have noted that the oil ETF United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) is not the best bullish play on crude here. My understanding of the product is that USO owns futures, and must roll each cycle. And right now oil is in deep contango, which always sounds pornographic but actually just refers to the fact that there's a particularly steep and upward sloped curve in the futures as you go out in time.

I'll take their word for the contango part, but I'm not entirely sure why that necessarily will knock down USO. They'll roll when they roll, and even if the spread is wide, won't it then just depend on what happens in the next month AFTER the roll? I'm thinking out loud here, so if anyone has something enlightening to add on this topic, I am all ears.

I sold and am selling more Nov. puts anyway, so it should not matter a great deal from my standpoint. And I'm not sure I really have a great alternative if I want to do something bullish in oil options.

I don't trade futures or futures options, and as far as pure oil there's Super Double Ultra Octane Special (AMEX: DBO), which does not have liquid options.

There's also Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DIG) and UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DUG), but those track energy stocks.

The week in preview -- Fun with economics

Sure, there are several earnings reports coming that are going to shake, rattle, and roll, the market this week, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), but what about those all important economic releases? Last week, the consumer price index was revealed for May and showed a monthly increase of .6% as energy was HOT once again, and the overall transportation costs rose the most since November 2007. Core inflation was up only .2% and investors liked the number as it calls for the continuation of a "Fed-Pause," which helped the dollar move up for the week.

New Residential Construction (permits) popped last month on an unexpected increase of the multi-family housing starts. Think about it for a minute and you will quickly realize that as families are losing their homes due to the deteriorating economic conditions, they still need live somewhere. So, the increase of 326,000 permits for multi-family housing makes perfect sense. But, don't be fooled by the fact that these are still mixed into the totals and have skewed the overall stats upwards.

Still, the reports have shown difficult conditions as the total starts have hit lows last seen in 1991. Before that, the lows of this level were seen in 1974. Economists over at Economy.com are looking for housing starts to drop again in May down to 985 million. Since the economy has become the real story (aside from the oil horror show), housing is vitally important, as it is really a proxy for the financial fortitude of the average family. Realize that if they are not buying homes, it is because they don't have the funds, cannot get credit and do not have confidence in their financial future.

Continue reading The week in preview -- Fun with economics

SmartMoney suggestions to avoid the pitfalls of falling oil prices

With the soaring oil prices, oil bulls have been benefiting from nice gains lately but there are some pessimistic signs that this may be about to change. The Fed's comments related to inflation stirred some worries among investors that interest rates could be lifted soon. A boost in interest rates will immediately lead to a stronger dollar, and could (and should) result in a sell off in crude.

Talking about this circumstance, SmartMoney is thinking about the best way to protect ourselves against losing money. As a first step,
SmartMoney suggests that we reduce commodities and increase our allocation in stocks. To back up this idea, the article cites Simeon Hyman, equity strategist of the portfolio advisory group at Lehman Brothers' private investment management unit, who said the company is currently lighter on commodities and "fully invested" in stocks.

David Reilly, director of portfolio strategies at Rydex Investments, is taking into account the possibility of investing in Japan, which "is the most oil-dependent of all major economies. Reilly cites companies such as Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) and Canon (NYSE: CAJ) which could benefit from investors' attention due to declines in crude oil prices.

Continue reading SmartMoney suggestions to avoid the pitfalls of falling oil prices

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 01:29 AM

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