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I want a one-day stock market crash in October

Is the market getting you down? You want it to go up, right? Well, you better settle in and brace yourself for even harder times as an individual investor. That is, if some pundits are correct about the direction of share prices. According to this CNBC page, a Dow of 8,000 is now in play, and gold might be set to strap a rocket on its back and propel itself up to $1,500 per ounce over time. I'm not sure about the gold, but a Dow of 8,000 almost feels like a logical rest stop at this point (but that might be emotion talking). In the end, none of us can tell the future.

I can, however, share with you a wish. And it isn't just my wish. I'm sure there are others out there who have already said this. And, yes, this wish is coming from someone who owns The Walt Disney Corporation (NYSE: DIS), The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), and General Electric (NYSE: GE). I own them for the long term (except for a separate trading position in GE which completely failed and may turn into another long-term asset), so maybe this wish isn't so mysterious. I want to go back to that "happy" time of October of '87. I want to see the Dow drop over 20% in one day. Preferably, I'd like to see it drop 25%, on Cloverfield-monster-sized volume. How many points would that be? As of this writing, it would be roughly 2,670 points.

What, am I insane? About as insane as the idiots who decided to become risk sponges, I suppose. In all seriousness, we need a crash. We need a reset, a reboot. We need a lot of panic on the street, and a spiking VIX ($VIX.X), to at least begin a bottom formation. If you think we're going to form a bottom without pain, you're wrong. And if you think, at this point, that we can form a bottom without a crash, well then, I won't say you're completely wrong on that count, but I will say that a crash would be better.

Continue reading I want a one-day stock market crash in October

Do you feel better about the Dow? You shouldn't!

So, the past few days have been cool ones for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. The market saw a nice uptrend. Click here and set the Dow to the one-month timeframe; that graph says it all. It looks like things may be okay from now on, right? Well, don't bet on it. CNBC.com reminds us about the dreaded bear-market rally. And I completely agree with the thesis: we are most likely headed back down once this market happiness runs its course.

It would simply be too easy for investors to have seen the bottom. No way, not with all the problems going on in terms of inflation and financial disasters. Oh yeah, oil has retreated, that's true, but I don't think the energy monster is in permanent hibernation. Not by a long shot. The problem with the past few days is that it plays with investors' emotions. It's played with mine, certainly. I haven't bought a stock in a while, and I really want to buy something. Maybe add to my General Electric (NYSE: GE) trade, my Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) holding. I love the dip in Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and really want to get serious about grabbing shares in Mr. Softy. My 401(k) has a lot of money waiting to be put to work. I want to transfer some of those monies into one or two of the quality mutual-fund offerings at my disposal. I can't stand having money tied up in stable-value instruments.

I just can't make a move yet. I feel that lower prices will be upon us sooner rather than later. Already, many are talking about buying opportunities for oil futures, and I fear those who hold such opinion will turn out to be correct. When oil rises again, stocks will most likely fall, and this summer fun will be just another memory of a day at the beach. I'm not saying there aren't buys out there. Again, Microsoft is looking attractive. Value investing, however, isn't. It's not the style of the day. And when value investing isn't the style of the day, your only hope is to become a deep-value investor and pray that patience is eventually rewarded.

Continue reading Do you feel better about the Dow? You shouldn't!

So, you want to short the market? Be careful

With the market looking just plain awful these days, and with the theory of recession becoming more and more concrete as the dour days pass, the concept of shorting equities is gaining popularity, at least from a headline point of view. Here's an article that talks about utilizing ETFs to go short. My colleague Timothy Sykes also discussed shorting in a recent piece of his own. Both of these articles bring up excellent points, and like Tim, I don't feel there is anything unpatriotic about betting against stocks, whether they are rising or falling. We're a capitalist society, and the trading spoils should go to the winners, whether the winners be long or short.

However, I urge all individual investors out there to think before they short. Don't take betting against a company or a market average lightly. The problem with shorting now is that it might be too late. The time to have purchased, say, the Proshares Ultrashort Dow 30 (AMEX: DXD) might have been a week ago. Remember that shorting is not a long-term idea, no pun intended. Going long is, so you're essentially going to become a market-timer when you invest in a short fund. There is nothing inherently wrong about trying to hedge yourself in a downward-spiraling environment, but make sure you understand that you are making a guess about the direction of stock prices. That's a tricky endeavor at best.

One thing you must avoid doing is shorting individual stocks. I think it's safer to short averages than it is to short companies. Again, if you're really sophisticated, you can do what you want, but do you have the guts to short a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)? Or what about a Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT)? A Citigroup (NYSE: C)? These are all stocks that I believe may be going lower in the short-term, but they all pay dividends, which the short-seller is still responsible for. Plus, at some point, the dividend yields will signal to investors that a bottom could be in. Besides, with short-themed ETFs around, there's really no reason to literally borrow shares and sell them into the market. There's also the method of buying put options to take advantage of a downtrending equity, so you're covered by that technique, too.

Continue reading So, you want to short the market? Be careful

Inverse ETFs: Hedging downside risk

For those who wish to hedge a portfolio against downside risk, Nate Pile suggests a pair of ETFs that benefit from a market decline. Here is the latest from his Nate's Notes.

"Although I would argue that much of the potential bad news has already been factored into stock prices, one of the mantras I have come to respect over the years is 'don't find the trend'... and the trend is currently down.

"Thus, I believe it would be foolish to not take at least a few cautionary steps with regards to protecting our portfolios until it becomes more clear just how bad things are going to get.

"As a result, I am recommending two 'short fund' ETFs as short-term investments -- ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 (AMEX: DXD) and the ProShares UltraShort QQQ (AMEX: QID). Both are designed to provide results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to the inverse of the performance of their respective indexes.

Continue reading Inverse ETFs: Hedging downside risk

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+16.9310,450.64
NASDAQ+5.102,174.28
S&P 500+2.811,108.46

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 01:07 PM

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