Are you looking for Nirvana when you invest? Forget about it. It doesn't exist.

Let's start with two big losers that relied on financial data and ended up on the trash heap. First we have Long Term Capital. Founded by John Meriwether, Robert C. Merton, and Myron Scholes. They formed the largest hedge fund in the U.S. in the 1990s with an estimated 4.6 billion in capital. Merton and Scholes had won the Nobel Prize in economics for developing a pricing model for options called the "Black Scholes Model." Since both men had won the Nobel Prize, this should have been Nirvana. Now comes along the Russian financial crisis and Long Term Capital was on the wrong side of history. They took such a beating that the Federal Reserve had to help bail them out for a time until they went bust in 2000.

Continue reading How to avoid falling into the data mining trap

How to avoid falling into the data mining trap originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Aug 2009 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I was sitting in my statistics class and the professor walked in and said, "Today we are going to learn about correlations." He explained that correlation is very simple. It is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables, and that there was a formula in our book we could use. "But right now," he said " it's more important that you learn the concept that a correlation is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables," he repeated, as professors often do. "Your answer will therefore always range between -1 and +1."

Continue reading Were the mathematicians of Wall Street a blessing or a curse?

Were the mathematicians of Wall Street a blessing or a curse? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.