Continue reading David Dreman fired as contrarian investing fails to yield results

David Dreman fired as contrarian investing fails to yield results originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Apr 2009 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Among contrarians, one advisors stands out among all others: David Dreman," notes John Reese, editor of the Validea newsletter.

His advisory service selects stocks based on the strategies of time-tested investors, he reviews Dreman's approach and offers one stock that matches the contrarian's investment profile -- specialty metals firm, Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI).

"Dreman, perhaps more than any other guru I follow, is a student of investor psychology. And at the core of his research is the belief that investors tend to overvalue the 'best' stocks -- those 'hot' stocks everyone seems to be buying -- and undervalue the 'worst' stocks -- those that people are avoiding like the plague.

"In addition, he also believed that the market was driven largely by how investors reacted to 'surprises', frequent events that include earnings reports that exceed or fall short of expectations, government actions, or news about new products.

"And, he believed that analysts were more often than not wrong about their earnings forecasts, which leads to a lot of these surprises. By taking a contrarian approach -- i.e. targeting out-of-favor stocks and avoiding in-favor stocks -- Dreman found you could make a killing.

"To find out-of-favor potential turnarounds, he compared a stock's price to four fundamentals: earnings, cash flow, book value, and dividend yield. Because Dreman took advantage of the overreactions of others, he found that one of the best times to invest was during a crisis.

"Allegheny Technologies is a diversified specialty metals producer; its metals are selected for use in environments that demand metals having hardness, toughness, strength, resistance to heat, corrosion or abrasion, or a combination of these characteristics.

Continue reading Allegheny Technologies (ATI): A 'Dreman style' contrarian buy

Allegheny Technologies (ATI): A 'Dreman style' contrarian buy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 25 Nov 2008 14:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"We are moving headlong into oil," notes John Reese, who analyzes stocks based on the criteria used by "legendary" investors such as Buffett, Graham and Lynch.

In his Validea newsletter, he says, "My fundamental models indicate that the oil industry is where the best values in the market are." Here's a look at W&T Offshore (NYSE: WTI), which is based on the criteria used by contrarian David Dreman.

"The economy and stock market have gone through a legitimate crisis because of the credit woes, and it takes time for something like that to work itself out.

"But the important thing to remember is that we've been through financial crises before -- even bad-debt financial crises like this one -- and the market has always stabilized and then pushed higher.

"And history has shown that those who can stick with the stock market through down times like these will be rewarded.

"David Dreman -- one of the gurus I base my strategies on -- notes in his recent Forbes column, 'If you pack up now, chances are you'll miss a good part of the next bull market. A large part of the gains are always made in the first few months of one, when market-timing investors are still on the sidelines.'

Continue reading W&T Offshore (WTI): Drilling with David Dreman

W&T Offshore (WTI): Drilling with David Dreman originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 27 Aug 2008 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Right now, we have a rare opportunity to get paid a monthly double-digit dividend and buy the skills of a legendary investment manager for only 85 cents on the dollar," says Dr. Steve Sjuggerud.

Here, in Daily Wealth, the advisor takes a look at David Dreman -- -- noted contrarian advisor -- and the opportunity currently offered in his closed-end fund, Dreman Value Income Edge Fund (NYSE: DHG).

"David Dreman made one of the greatest calls in stock market history. In 1980, he told investors to buy stocks. He didn't just tell a few clients or friends to buy stocks.

"He literally wrote the book on buying stocks in 1980 -- Contrarian Investment Strategies in which he argued, 'The stock market appears cheap by nearly every historical standard.'

"At the time, saying 'buy stocks' was bold stuff. Stocks hadn't made money in 17 years. But Dreman was absolutely right. After 17 years of losses, the stock market started the longest bull run in recorded history, which stretched from 1982 until 2000.

"Fast forward to 2008. Dreman is guarded, but optimistic again. In the May issue of Forbes he says: 'Frightening as the markets look today, there will come a time when the liquidity crisis ends and today's prices for bank stocks look, in retrospect, like bargains.'

Continue reading David Dreman: Value manager trades at a discount

David Dreman: Value manager trades at a discount originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 May 2008 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The latest issue of Barron's featured the results of the weekly paper's stock-picking contest for college students. Derek Zoch, a student at Wharton, had a strategy that smacks of classic contrarianism in the tradition of David Dreman. He looked for stocks making the largest moves, up or down, on each day and then bet against them. This strategy (with, of course, a huge amount of luck) led him to a 34.94% gain in six months.

Does this strategy make sense? It might. Jim Cramer has said that the market never rewards the best news and enough, and never punishes the worst news badly enough. But contrarians like David Dreman would argue that it's just the opposite: the stocks that are disappointing investors the most are often the best bargains. And, as Zoch bet, stocks making great gains are likely to be overrated.

Here is a hardcore contrarian strategy that you could try: each day for 2 weeks, buy the biggest % loser on the NYSE, and short the biggest gainer. Hold each stock for six months, and then close all the positions and see if you beat the market. Interestingly, one might extrapolate from Cramer's remarks that his approach could be just the opposite.

A simple contrarian investment strategy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 22 Apr 2007 20:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I've just returned from the World Money Show, where some 10,000+ investors gathered to learn about global investing. I had a chance to meet with many of the advisors who were featured at the show, and will be highlighting some of their favorite investment ideas. To view all of the stocks featured in this special global report, click here.

Petrobras Petroleo-Brasileiro (NYSE:PBR) is among the latest additions to the buy list of Validea, a newsletter that selects its stocks by following the investment guidelines of time-tested strategies employed by investment "legends". In this case, the stock pick is based on the ideas of David Dreman, James P. O'Shaughnessy, and Peter Lynch.

Editor John Reese explains, "Petrobras is an integrated energy company controlled by Brazil's government. It is dominant in a number of markets. For example, it controls 98% of the country's refining capacity. Three guru strategies favor Petroleo Brasileiro.

"One of these is the strategy we base on the writings of David Dreman. The Dreman strategy views the company as a contrarian investment because both its P/E and price-to-cash flow ratios are in the bottom 20% of the market.

"However, the company is doing reasonably well financially, notes the strategy. Earnings are increasing, the company's current ratio of 1.51 exceeds its industry's average, return on equity is a very strong 35.05 percent and pretax profit margins are also very strong, at 32.59%. In addition, the stock's yield is 3.35%.

Continue reading Global gains: Drilling for dollars in Brazil

Global gains: Drilling for dollars in Brazil originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Feb 2007 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

According to a piece in today's New York Times, economists expect good but not great things for 2007. Merrill Lynch's Chief Investment Strategist Richard Bernstein projects a 12% rise in the S&P 500. Abby Cohen sees the S&P going up modestly, and UBS's David Bianco expects multiple expansion. Some economists worry about the Fed and others are concerned that investors are too bullish about GDP growth. But all in all, they are expecting it to be a good year.

The problem, according to investors like David Dreman, is that positive sentiment is often a contrarian indicator. In his book Contrarian Investment Strategies, he provides compelling data that show that even the best analysts and economists are often wrong -- and by a problematic amount.

So it may be wise to exercise caution in the face of bullishness. As Warren Buffet often says "The secret is to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I hope the analysts are right, but I wouldn't be making investment decisions based on their predictions.

Analysts are bullish: should you care? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Jan 2007 12:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Who wouldn't want to follow in the footsteps of this century's great investors? SmartMoney tries to give its reader that opportunity in its August cover story profiling the likes (and the stock picks) of Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, Chris Davis and others.

It's a fascinating read and one that left me chomping at the bit to go invest my spare cash. Sears Holdings (SHLD), Merck (MRK), and News Corp (NWS) were the names that caught my eye. If I had any spare cash I would probably be doing some buying rather than writing this blog post. But since I don't, I'll instead enumerate the reasons why it may not make sense to follow the stock picks of the pros:

• They bought back then, but would they buy now? You just don't know. Buffett bought ConocoPhillips, General Electric (GE) and United Parcel Service (UPS) in the past year. But has he held onto them? Did he buy for reasons that have nothing to do with his view on their long-term potential (that's always a possibility with Wall Street pros)? My guess is the answer is "no" to both those questions, but we just can't be sure what Buffett was thinking when he bought and if he'd do the same thing today.
• What if they are due for a cool streak? Bill Miller has been an investing phenomenon, beating the S&P year after year. Some academics would argue that it's pure luck. The article points out that his bets on United Health Group (UNH) and Aetna (AET)aren't looking so good and a couple of his August cover picks -- Yahoo and Dell -- have stumbled badly lately. But Sears Holdings (SHLD) sounds like a decent idea to me.
• Are they playing it safe? Christopher Davis picks Wal-Mart and Microsoft. Those sound like fine choices for the core of a portfolio, but I doubt they are really his best ideas. News Corp (NWS), his third idea sounds like the smartest to me. And the stock is doing terrific this year.

The article is well worth reading and if you are looking for some good ideas, this is a great place to start. But just as with any investing article, it should just be the starting point for further research.

Stock picks of great investors aren't always the best picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.