Despite recent signs of economic recovery, the mortgage crisis has proved to be one that has refused to go away despite valiant efforts of government bailouts, incentive programs and rate adjustments. In fact, with RealtyTrac projecting the foreclosure number for 2011 to be over 1 million for the second year in a row, it looks like the problem is likely to worsen before it gets better, especially in light of the government's failing "relief programs."

At the top of the foreclosure list is female homeowners -- in a market where the number of women buying homes in the past decade has doubled and, in a recent poll, shown on average to control approximately 75% of the family finances.

Shares of Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP), the holding company for the A&P grocery chain, are getting hammered today. The stock shed more than 15% by midday following a less-than-bullish article in The Wall Street Journal, with the newspaper describing GAP as "bludgeoned by lower-price rivals and strapped for cash."

The U.S. dollar has been under siege since June when the U.S. dollar futures index reached a high of 89.11. In today's trading the index traded at 77.34. According to Federal Reserve minutes released Tuesday, it looks like the Fed is behind this -- engineering a weaker dollar to boost commodities and the stock market and give U.S. exporters an edge in world trade, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The very fact that the Fed plans additional purchases of U.S. Treasuries to stimulate the economy is almost a sure bet to further devaluation of the dollar. The Fed prefers inflation because it is deathly afraid of deflation. The Fed sees inflation as the better of the two evils.

Financial Times columnist and economist Martin Wolf forwards the paradoxical, but nevertheless economically valid theory that "we can only cut debt by borrowing more."

Economic conservatives, including supply-side economics advocates and Tea Party backers, will no-doubt look aghast at the above, but investors should keep in mind that most of the conservative camp has shown concern primarily for: 1) cutting taxes and 2) cutting government spending -- not for the plight of the more than 15 million Americans without work. Now, if in the process of cutting taxes and spending U.S. unemployment goes to 15% or 20% -- which would likely be the consequence of spending cuts that reduce already low aggregate demand further -- so be it. In other words, if the free market says unemployment should be that high, then unemployment will rise. Just cut taxes and cut spending.

The most common question I get from friends, family, business associates and, well, everyone is -- Do you expect a double-dip recession? My answer is an unequivocal "No!"

This does not mean that I think we are going to experience a dramatic improvement in the economy. We are not. Many of my colleagues seem to oppose my view, so it is not without some trepidation that I take this stand. However, I see the glass half full. My view is that others are overly influenced by "group-think" and the calls of doom.

I do think that we are currently adrift in uncharted waters and we may have a faulty rudder, too. The biggest fear I have is that everyone jabbering about another deep recession may actually cause one.

The following supports why I feel, from what we know, that we are not destined for a double-dip recession:

News that credit card debt has fallen to an eight-year low may not be the news that Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) want to hear, but it is good news overall given the employment and economic situation. It's a sign of fiscal discipline during rough times.

Some analysts were a bit worried about credit card debt after the housing crisis; if you are unemployed, it can be easy to run up large debts on credit cards and then default on them.

I am sure there are some out there who think that consumers need to go out and spend more money to stimulate the economy, but that logic is not always good depending on the purchases.

It seems as if everyone is worried about the economy going into a double-dip recession these days. Worry in and of itself can be very destructive, both to your mental state and to the economy overall. Besides pulling out your hair, causing acid reflux and other health problems, worry can actually become self-fulfilling prophecy and cause the very thing you are most afraid of.

A number of years ago when I read Dale Carnegie's book How to Stop Worrying and Start Living, one method he suggested was just to accept the worst case scenario and then move on with life from there.

So accept it: THE ECONOMY IS DOOMED! it's going to be 10 years of economic nightmare!

Now what?

In May, net long-term inflows into the United States fell to $35.4 billion from April's $81.5 billion. Foreigners bought only $14.9 billion in May, down from $76.4 billion in April. China, in particular, cut its treasury holdings by $43.5 billion to $867.7 billion. Japan, the second largest holder reduced its treasury stash by $8.8 billion to $786.7 billion.

This one is disturbing. Official or government investors were net sellers of $38.8 billion, a record. Private investors bought net $56.2 billion.

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS - option chain) shares are rising today after the company reaffirmed its Q2 EPS and revenue outlook this morning, plus the outlined plans to sell new debt to finance a stock buyback. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on FIS.

FIS opened this morning at $27.49. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.90 and a high of $27.49. As of 12:15, FIS is trading at $27.03 up 0.62 (2.3%). The chart for FIS looks bullish and S&P gives FIS a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

The cost of protecting Greek government debt from default rose to a record, Bloomberg News reported last week. According to CMA DataVision there is now a 68.5% of default. Greece's probability of default rose from 48.5% on June 15 when Moody's downgraded Greek debt to junk.

The main fear is that the imposition of austerity programs throughout the eurozone will hamper growth, especially for weaker countries like Greece. CMA estimates that holders of Greek debt could end up with only 50 cents on a dollar.

Ford Motor (F - option chain) shares are rising today after the company announced it will pay $3.8 billion in cash to the UAW Retiree Medical Benefits Trust to pay off a series of notes ahead of time. F will also pay off $255 million of previously deferred preferred dividends ahead of time. Investors have cheered the move, which will save the company hundreds of millions of dollars in annual interest expenses. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on F.

F opened this morning at $10.10. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.07 and a high of $10.52. As of 12:15, F is trading at $10.38 up 0.50 (5.1%). The chart for F looks neutral and S&P gives F a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

There is no question that Sonic Corporation (SONC) has arguably the most distinct business model in the quick-serve restaurant industry. However, is this enough to validate an investment in the franchise?

After lowering its outlook for the fiscal year, from between $0.55 - $0.60 to $0.50 - $0.55 per share, Sonic announced on June 21, 2010 that its earnings for the third quarter were a disappointing $0.18 per share. This figure is lower than what analysts predicted by 1 to 4 cents per share, and even includes a 3 cent tax benefit. Without including special items, this marks a year over year decline of almost 40%.

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, predicts trouble ahead for world economies. The Black Swan is a metaphor for unexpected events because people view the world as something structured, ordinary and comprehensible.

Some of his statements are factual, and some are conjecture. Here is list of quotes from his interview on CNBC:

For the first time in history, U.S. government debt -- now $13 trillion -- will surpass GDP in 2012, based on forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. Bill Gross of PIMCO calls this a "debt super cycle."

The key problem with such a huge debt is that investors will demand a higher return, which translates into higher interest rates. The interest cost alone on $13 trillion will put an added burden on the government and the people.

Bill Gross further commented that "If real interest rates were ever to go up instead of down," our economic growth will not be enough to support borrowings.

One troubling sign (amid a week filled with disconcerting signs) for the markets is the increase in the three-month Libor, or London interbank offered rate, which rose 5.5 basis points to 0.428% on Friday: its highest level since August 17, 2009, Bloomberg News reported.

Experienced investors will recall that the Libor, which serves as a sort of "ATM for banks," rose to a stratospheric high of 3.65% during the financial crisis' acute stage when Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008.