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Pakistan: Best bond investment this year

Looking for a new emerging market? Try Pakistan! Despite a continued sense of tension with India and open hostility along the Afghan border, the country's bond market is the best in the world, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Debt sold by Pakistan has surged 88% this year -- topping the 45 emerging markets that JPMorgan watches and the 19 that Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: BAC) follows.

And, the stock market may be next.

Money managers, according to a report by Bloomberg, believe that the Pakistani equity market could become the next global superstar. The Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index is only trading at 9.6X earnings, making it the lowest in Asia (excluding Japan) . . . and this follows a 21% increase year-to-date.

Continue reading Pakistan: Best bond investment this year

So what is private equity, anyway?

This week, I was on a panel at the USC School of Business. One question I got was: what is private equity?

I had to think about it. First of all, the traditional definition is fairly straightforward. That is, private equity funds buy companies using large amounts of debt.

But what happens when the debt market goes into meltdown?

Well, interestingly enough, private equity firms learn how to adapt. Perhaps, the best example is TPG.

In fact, the firm had a busy week. First, TPG has assembled a group of investors to buy a piece of Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE: WM) for $7 billion. Next, the firm got a piece of SIA International, which is a leading drug distributor in Russia. And, finally, TPG has joined a group that plans to purchase $12 billion in leveraged loans from Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C).

Continue reading So what is private equity, anyway?

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts: Is IPO postponement ahead?

In the financial world, "contagion" is a Wall Street term that describes marketwide selling in one region of the world, for example in Tokyo or Berlin, that leads to selling in another region of the world, for example, in New York.

But contagion can take place within a market (or intramarket) as well, and that appears to be the case with private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) and its initial public offering.

A repricing of risk sparked by renewed concerns regarding subprime mortgage defaults, as well as a moderate stance regarding the deployment of new capital, has produced more-conservative capital market conditions -- conditions that may prompt KKR to postpone its IPO.

KKR filed to go public on July 3 and planned to raise $1.25 billion. KKR had sought to follow in private equity firm Blackstone's (NYSE: BX) footsteps: in June Blackstone priced 133.33 million shares at $31 in a $4.13 billion IPO. BX's shares have since slipped to around the $26 mark.

More importantly, a new conservative tone has gripped the debt markets, and that mood has spilled into the initial stage equity market -- conditions that will make it harder for KKR to attract an adequate price for its shares, and quite possibly, prevent the company from moving forward with the IPO at this time.

Continue reading Kohlberg Kravis Roberts: Is IPO postponement ahead?

Expedia: A misstep for Barry Diller

Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE), the online travel company, announced that it would buyback 116.7 million shares. That was in June. The company's shares quickly jumped from under $24 to $29.

Today, the company announced that the share purchase program would be reduced to 25 million shares. The stock will be bought in a price range of $27.50 to $30.00. On the announcement, Expedia's price promptly dropped to $26.50, about 9% down.

Bloomberg quotes Expedia Chairman Barry Diller as saying, "The terms available to us in the current debt market environment were simply unacceptable." The company would have added $3.5 billion in debt to cover buying back the stock.

What happened? Well, credit is getting tighter, but it is never too tight for really attractive deals. The company is not exactly minting money. In the last reported quarter, net income was $38 million on revenue of $551 million. Interest payments for the quarter were about $11 million. With the additional $3.5 billion of debt on the books, interest payments could have gone up as much as 7 times. And there would not be a good enough ratio of operating income to the sum of the old debt plus the new borrowing Expedia would have made to buy the 116.7 million shares.

The simple reason that there may not have been debt available at good interest rates is that earnings would not support it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 12:39 AM

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