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Play defense with PepsiCo (PEP) and Phillip Morris Int'l (PM)

In Gordon Pape's Internet Wealth Builder, contributing analyst Tom Slee looks at "recession-resistant" global stocks. Here, he reviews Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP).

Slee explains, "Philip Morris continues to benefit from rising tobacco consumption and 'uptrading' as people in the emerging countries switch to more expensive products.

"Almost recession proof, the international tobacco industry is prospering thanks mainly to new markets, strong cash flows, and reduced litigation.

Continue reading Play defense with PepsiCo (PEP) and Phillip Morris Int'l (PM)

Del Monte up big on Q1 data

Del Monte Foods (NYSE: DLM), a supermarket brand whose colleagues include ConAgra (NYSE: CAG) and Kraft (NYSE: KFT), was way up in afternoon trading. When a stock like Del Monte gains 9% on great volume, you know something big must have happened. Well, it was the company's fiscal Q1 results that made investors want to buy today. After checking over the news, I can honestly say that I see the market's point.

Sales increased 12% during the quarter, and earnings from continuing operations calculated out to 30 cents per share, a huge improvement over the loss observed in the comparable period. According to Earnings.com, Wall Street was only looking for a measly four pennies for the bottom line.

Continue reading Del Monte up big on Q1 data

Food for thought: Best buys in food & beverage

In a difficult economic environment, it is often wise for investors to consider stocks in more defensive and relatively recession-resistant sectors. And one such area is food and beverage stocks.

As the long-standing market maxim goes, consumers can pull back on spending for vacations, remodeling, and new cars, but they still need to eat and drink.

In that light, I turned to nine leading newsletter advisors who serve up their current favorite ideas in the food and beverage sector:

Continue reading Food for thought: Best buys in food & beverage

Kellogg is a defensive play with growth potential

Regular readers know that my investment bias here is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable, global trend as a support. And when you can combine these traits with defensive stock qualities, you're two steps ahead, which is why cereal giant Kellogg (NYSE: K) is worth a review.

The market sell-off and tumult of 2008 spared almost no stocks, and Kellogg took a beating as well, with investors driving shares down to the $35-range from $60.

Continue reading Kellogg is a defensive play with growth potential

Just call Colgate-Palmolive an assertive defensive play

It goes without saying that you'd call this a selective market: select the wrong stock, and there's a 30-40% haircut up ahead; select the correct stock, and you're positioned for the recovery with modest downside exposure. And with the aforementioned in mind, Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL) is worth a review.

Just put Colgate in the category of a 'defensive stock plus.' A restructuring has left CL lean and ready to increase market share in faster-growing markets, which should drive impressive 7-10% earnings growth in F2009 and F2010, and beyond. The First Call FY 2009/FY 2010 EPS estimates for CL are $4.24 to $4.71.

Continue reading Just call Colgate-Palmolive an assertive defensive play

General Mills profits as more Americans eat at home

Regular readers know that the investment bias here is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable, global trend as a support. And with this in mind, General Mills (NYSE: GIS) is worth a review.

In general, analysts see 2009 revenue increasing 7-10%, which, under these economic conditions, is enough to warrant throwing a party. Some negative headwinds created by a relatively stronger dollar should be offset by institutional investors stocking up on defensive shares. (Those same institutional investors are gradually adding cyclical and riskier shares, hence they have to balance it out somewhat, to GIS's benefit.)

Continue reading General Mills profits as more Americans eat at home

Consider FPL Group, because the Gold Coast is still there, recession and all

Nary a good word can be said about this market in the first week of March 2009. The U.S. economy seems set to register at least an 18-month recession, and probably a longer one. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner went to Capitol Hill Tuesday to essentially tell the U.S. Congress more money will be needed for the banking bailout, and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke did the same to brace elected officials for more, essential help for American International Group (NYSE: AIG). As 'The Great One,' Jackie Gleason would chime, "Oh, wonderful!"

Translation: rough sledding, at best, for equities, and a defensive posture is the rule. Still, so long as one expects the U.S. economy to return to some semblance of normalcy -- and that's the view here -- there are bargains to be had for those investors who can tolerate moderate risk. And with the above in mind utility, FPL Group (NYSE: FPL) is worth a review.

Continue reading Consider FPL Group, because the Gold Coast is still there, recession and all

Booze Stocks: Drinkers cutting back. Will stocks follow?

Blogger Paul Kedrosky posted a fascinating Bloomberg chart showing that alcohol consumption in the U.S. has started to decline. He opines people feel so poor that they have cut back on booze -- which casts aspersions on the defensive status of booze stocks. Piqqem Sentiment on Molson (NYSE: TAP), considered the best of the brewery companies, is modestly positive with rising sentiment.

Continue reading Booze Stocks: Drinkers cutting back. Will stocks follow?

Walgreen (WAG) expands the old-fashioned way: carefully

Yes, you could call this a selective market: select the wrong stock, and there's a 30-40% haircut up ahead; select the correct stock, and you're positioned for the U.S. recovery with modest downside exposure.

Hence, the premium is on defensive plays, and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) qualifies.

Consider Walgreen 'the defensive's defensive' because not only is it in a conservative sector (drug stores), Walgreen has resisted the urge to grow by acquisition. Instead, WAG has focused on the old-fashioned method of growth by opening new stores, and other methods (large penetrations into new markets, relocating stores, expanding 24-hour service to more stores). The tactic really hasn't hurt WAG's store count, with the chain operating about 6,500 stores in the U.S. as of October 2008.

Continue reading Walgreen (WAG) expands the old-fashioned way: carefully

CVS knows that a doctor's handwriting is a code for earnings

As drug store chains go, there are few better than CVS Caremark, with the chain taking the CVS name. Further, with the U.S. recession in its 15th month and shares doing their best to form a bottom, now is the time to scoop up CVS's shares, for several reasons.

First, CVS (NYSE: CVS) is a classic defensive stock. During recessions, and especially during this recession, consumers cut back spending, but they do their best to maintain essential purchases, and prescriptions are one such purchase. That bodes well for what analysts call "back store revenue" (the pharmacy).

Continue reading CVS knows that a doctor's handwriting is a code for earnings

Top Stock Picks '09: Sara Lee (SLE)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"To paraphrase its marketing slogan: 'Nobody shouldn't like Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE),'" says Steve Ralston, consumer products sector expert at Zacks Investment Research.

"From the sales of staple products, consumer non-durable companies generate solid cash flow, with which management can enhance shareholder value through share repurchases and dividend increases.

"Recently restructured consumer non-durable companies are especially attractive, particularly if they are well-managed, trade at a single-digit P/E, and yield more than 4%.

"My favorite stock for 2009 is Sara Lee. Sara Lee announced a 5-year restructuring plan (the Transformation Plan) 3-1/2 years ago. The company has been right-sized, having divested unprofitable and low margin businesses.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Sara Lee (SLE)

The end of the run for "safe harbor" stocks (JNJ) (PEP) (WMT) (CL) (DNA)

The Wall Street Journal argues that the stock market drop may have killed so many sectors that "defensive stocks" may have disappeared. In many market corrections, there are some companies with shares that have held up because their business are less likely to be hurt by a recession.

The paper says that "a number of defensive stocks lately are acting more like cyclical names." The analysts points to companies such as PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).

The viewpoint may be flawed. What may have happened is that there has been a rotation out of stocks that used to do well in bear markets to a new set of shares which have held up well.. Over the last year, shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) are up over 20%. Shares in Colgate (NYSE:CL) are only off a little over 10%, but the company pays a 2.3% dividend. Shares in Genentech (NYSE:DNA) are up 20%. Granted, it is a takeover target, but it has been considered one for some time.

Maybe The Wall Street Journal is just looking in the wrong places.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Walgreen (WAG): Get this great defensive play cheap

It's a slow week on Wall Street. But after the year we've had (for a great read, check out Markets Gone Wild: 10 Craziest Days on Wall Street in 2008), that's a welcome change.

However, there are some individual stories worth noting. One in particular that caught my eye was the action in Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG).

Before the opening bell on Monday, the giant drug store announced earnings that missed expectations.

Investors were not pleased and shared immediately sold off. By the end of the day, shares had shed another dollar of value. The bleeding continued on Tuesday with another dollar lost. Shares closed Wednesday at just over $24.

While it may have been a good week to announce negative news, WAG could not escape the wrath of the sell-first-ask-questions-later crowd.

Does this make any sense?

Not to me.

Walgreen announced that it made $408 million, or 41 cents per share, in its first quarter of fiscal year 2009, ending Nov. 30. Analysts were expecting 46 cents per share.

The miss continues a trend of slower profit growth for what had been one of the more consistent companies in the S&P 500 index.

I guess that explains the disappointment over the earnings miss, but I find the reaction a bit ridiculous.

The economy is in a world of hurt, so it should have been no surprise that even a dependable earnings machine like WAG would have trouble.

The sell-off is your opportunity, in my opinion. There are plenty of great long-term reasons to own the stock.

For starters, in a poor economic environment, WAG can be counted as a defensive play. That status does not change due to a 5-cent miss on earnings.

The company is profitable and has a solid balance sheet with $400 million in cash and just over $1 billion of debt. They pay a nice dividend of just under 2% that investors should be able to count on while we wait for the economy to find its footing.

Like every other stock in the market, WAG has seen its share price drop during the last year. That said, the stock has fared better than some, having only lost about 38% of its value.

With many questions remaining about the economy, I would much prefer owning WAG than some other names with greater risk.

The company did announce that it was reducing store openings for the coming year, focusing on cutting costs and redesigning stores in order to increase grocery items for busy shoppers.

The later strategy makes a lot of sense if you think about what is working for other retailers, like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), or gasoline convenience stores like Casey's General Store (NASDAQ: CASY).

Filling a prescription is no different than filling the gas tank. If a customer can pick up a gallon of milk and some other items while waiting for a prescription to be filled, WAG will benefit by offering more choices.

WAG makes a ton of sense as a defensive play, and I would consider it a buy.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

If you must: a defensive play or two

The U.S. economy remains weak - - grappling with its most severe recession in decades. Credit remains tight, although U.S. government interventions have stabilized the financial system (so far). Further, there are major public policy unknowns: a new administration, the Obama Administration, takes office in January 2009 - - a reality that could substantially alter the investing landscape.

Now is not the time to establish new positions in stocks or add to positions, so says Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer.

Still, investors, being a risk-taking lot, sometimes just can't heed the advice to remain sidelined. They're like children seeking to open a gift before the holiday arrives, and because the good C. Leonard does not want to be viewed as a new Ebenezer Scrooge, he offered the following defensive plays heading into the new year.

Heads up: Bauer would buy shares in only one of the following defensive plays:

AT&T (NYSE: T). Price: $27.90, p/e: 12. Simply, 'Ma Bell' has what it takes to survive the economic downturn - - one that's likely to thin the communications field, Bauer said. A global footprint, and ample engineering / research talent also means T will be well-positioned for Web 2.0's big growth period, as the U.S. economy recovers.

Continue reading If you must: a defensive play or two

Costco (COST): Built to 'weather the storm'

"While many firms are struggling to survive, a lucky minority are built to weather the storm better," says growth stock specialist Karim Rahemtulla. In Xcelerated Profits Report, he eyes Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST).

"Thanks to rising inflation and unemployment, coupled with a beaten-up economy, many retailers are braced for a harsh new reality this holiday season.

"Consumers have much tighter budgets and are cutting back on whatever they can. And that's where some 'one-stop' retailers like Costco can really take advantage.

"Although customers are more likely to avoid the electronics and other non-necessity stocking sections of the store these days, they still need to eat.

"So while other non-food departments are seeing a sales slowdown, Goldman Sachs recently reported that Costco is likely to enjoy strong food sales, which offset that.

"Goldman also noted that Costco boasts a strong balance sheet, with almost $3.3 billion in cash on the books, plus ample liquidity - factors that could encourage management to implement a stock buyback program.

"Compared to other retailers who are flat-out dreading this holiday season, that puts Costco in a strong position.

"And because the store has such a diverse range of products, all under one roof and available at bargain prices, Costco is one firm better prepared to ride out what could be a brutal season for retailers."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 06:54 AM

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