Biotechs are fascinating. They have such great promise, yet very few of them actually turn those promises into money. Cures for all types of cancers always seem imminent with promising (there's that word again) results from mice or small control groups. Phase I testing is completed and all kinds of good stuff seems possible. Then something usually happens. Usually not very good things.

Most of the time, it's discovered that what works in mice doesn't work in men (or women). Or that the group was too small for meaningful data and when a larger group is studied, the efficacy isn't there. Or as soon as there's a bounce in the stock price, much more stock is issued and dilution occurs.

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) shares more than doubled in early morning trading. But this may be somewhat misleading as the 100% surge is following Tuesday's 45% decline that caused a halt in trading.

As promised, on Tuesday, Dendreon released detailed results of its innovative prostate cancer drug Provenge. Ahead of the results, the stock plunged some 45% to $11.81 before trading was halted at 1:27 p.m. following two minutes of high volatility. Trading resumed last night and the Nasdaq said it would let stand all the trades.

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) closed at $21.55. DNDN will report detailed Phase 3 IMPACT (Immunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment) this afternoon. DNDN May call option implied volatility is at 211, puts are at 190 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.

streetTracks Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is recently down 70 cents to $88.31 in pre-open trading. Gold is recently down 1.10% to $898.65 according to Bloomberg. GLD May option implied volatility is at 29; June is at 30; below its 26-week average of 38, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) to Buy from Neutral on expectations shares will react positively to the full IMPACT data release on April 28. The firm thinks Provenge could represent the first cancer immunotherapy approved in the U.S. and raised its valuation range on the stock to $33-$34 from $18-$19.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Andersons (NASDAQ: ANDE) as it believes the valuation is attractive, investor expectations are low, and the company's fertilizer and rail segments could recovery in FY10. The firm has a $19 target on shares. Goldman upgraded the auto sector to Neutral from Cautious and added Ford (NYSE: F) to its Conviction Buy list. The analyst does not believe Ford will have to declare bankruptcy and sees the company benefiting from Chrysler share declines and GM's (NYSE: GM) reduced product offerings. Ford's price target is $6
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC) to Buy from Underperform.
• Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Today's late-day rally had a common theme throughout the day: less-bad economic data. This went from better housing data and CPI not showing any deflation fears. The Beige Book was also showing that some of the 12 Fed regions are seeing a decline in the slowdown. Here are today's unofficial closing levels, which were essentially around the highs of the day:

Dow 8,029.62 +109.44 (1.38%)
S&P 500 852.06 +10.56 (1.25%)
Nasdaq 1,626.80 +1.08 (0.07%)

Top 10 Analyst Calls

Today was just a day of selling the news. We had weak retail sales and we had lower than expected PPI data showing no inflation. But after a 5-week straight rally, investors were selling into earnings despite many estimates looking excessively easy to hit.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 7,918.11 -139.70 (-1.73%)
S&P 500 841.87 -16.86 (-1.96%)
Nasdaq 1,626.40 -26.91 (-1.63%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) shares more than tripled today soaring from a previous close of $7.30 to $22.10. By noon DNDN traded up over 130% to around $17 a share. The company reported this morning that its experimental prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, was significantly successful in prolonging patient survival. This may clear the way for the long-awaited regulatory approval for the drug.

Dendreon plans to submit additional information to the FDA in the fourth quarter as part of its new drug application, meaning approval could come with six months, by mid- 2010.

Dendreon (NYSE: DNDN) was halted at $7.30. DNDN is reporting top-line data from the ongoing Phase 3 IMPACT (Immunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment) this morning. DNDN April 7 straddle is priced at $1.87, May 7 straddle is priced at $6.60 according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ:QQQQ) overall implied volatility at 36; 26-week average is 43. CBOE Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX at 37.81; 10-day moving average is 40.82.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) is a classic example of how a company fares as they struggle through the arcane and sometimes bewildering process of gaining FDA approval of a new treatment protocol.

A little more than a year and a half ago, the Seattle-based company was anxiously awaiting FDA approval of its new drug treatment protocol for prostate cancer.

The company's new drug, Provenge, had completed a trial that found that the treatment extended the lives of men suffering from prostate cancer an average of 4.5 months over those who did not receive the treatment. The company felt it had adequately demonstrated the efficacy of the treatment and deserved FDA approval.

In an unexpected but somewhat typical move, the FDA chose not to approve the drug for distribution at that time. It opted to delay approval until completion of another study under way with 500 subjects. This came in spite of a finding by an FDA panel that the drug was "safe and substantially effective."

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) expects the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) to review in October 2008 the interim analysis of overall survival relating to the Company's Phase 3 IMPACT (Immunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment). DNDN November call option implied volatility is at 164, puts are at 195; above its 26-week average of 129 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Savient Pharma (NASDAQ: SVNT) closed at $21.95 Thursday. SVNT's Puricase (treatment for refractory gout) BLA (biologics license application) filing is expected this autumn. SVNT September and October option implied volatility is at 86, December is at 82. SVNT average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 79 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) trading up 15% on news that it has sold off some of its troubled debt.

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) is trading higher by over 8% on no apparent news.

MBIA (NYSE: MBI) if off 10% on news that it has cut its dividend.

Siemens (NYSE: SI) is selling off over 4% on rumors that the European conglomerate may cut its 2008 outlook.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Solar, JA Solar, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia and Ericsson were today's noteworthy initiations:

• First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ: JASO) were initiated with Buy ratings and targets of $160 and $61 at Collins Stewart. Collins Stewart sees room for margin expansion and is positive on First Solar after channel checks; the firm expects JA Solar to expand capacity given its long-term supply agreements with four wafer suppliers.
  
• Merrill Lynch started shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) with a Sell rating, citing a lack of revenue growth prospects.
  
• The firm also started shares of Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) with a Buy rating, as they believe the company's share gains and margin expansion will continue.
  
• Merrill also resumed coverage of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) with a Neutral rating, expecting high single digit earnings and share growth, but not enough for a Buy rating.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Goldman initiated the trucking and railroad sectors with Neutral ratings.
  
• Wachovia initiated Isis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ISIS), BioMarin and Molecular Insight (NASDAQ: MIPI) with Outperform ratings and Bioenvision (NASDAQ: BIVN), Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN), Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA) and Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ: NBIX) with Market Perform ratings.

When a relative -- I'll call her "M" to protect her privacy -- told me a few months ago that she and another relative who I'll call "D" were thinking of buying Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), a biotech stock that at one time was a Wall Street favorite, I wasn't happy. The stock was getting pounded because of concerns about whether the Seattle-based company would get FDA approvals for its Provenge prostate cancer treatment. It turns out my skepticism was right and "M" and "D" were wrong.

Dendreon is basically a one-trick pony, and a money-losing one. As of June 30, the company had an accumulated deficit of $445.5 million. Its shares have plunged more than 50% since May, when the FDA didn't approve Provenge as had been expected.. The stock fell again in July after the company said the SEC was conducting an informal inquiry and that it was hit with a shareholder lawsuit.

Investors' hopes were rekindled again earlier this month after Dendreon released what was seen as promising results for its Neuvenge treatment for breast cancer. Forbes magazine, though, cautions against reading too much into these results.

"While the Neuvenge results were positive, Dendreon investors will have to be patient," the magazine said. "The drug's human trial remains in the early stage, meaning that Neuvenge has a long way to go before it nears Food and Drug Administration approval. Investors remain concerned that Neuvenge could go the way of Provenge."

Provenge remains Dendreon's bread and butter -- at least it would be if the company actually had products. The company made that point very clear in a recent filing with the SEC. "If we fail to obtain FDA approval for Provenge or fail to successfully commercialize Provenge, our business would be harmed and our stock price would likely decline," the filing said.

How true.

Hopefully, M&D will eventually recoup some of their losses so they can focus on more important things like spoiling grandchildren.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dendreon Corp (DNDN), Cubic Corp (CUB), Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDO), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) were today's notable downgrades:

• JMP Securities downgraded shares of Dendreon Corp (NASDAQ: DNDN) to Market Underperform from Market Perform based on the company's uncertain product pipeline and the recent SEC filing that revealed that certain officers and directors are facing potential shareholder lawsuits regarding trading activities.
  

• Friedman Billings cut Cubic Corp (AMEX: CUB) to Underperform from Market Perform on valuation.

• RBC Capital downgraded Endo Pharmaceuticals (OTCBB: ENDP) to Sector Perform from Outperform following the company's withdrawal of guidance pertaining to its NDA for the Ketoprofen patch.

• Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) was cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan on valuation. UBS cut Royal Dutch Shell to Neutral from Buy on valuation...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Robinson Humphries downgraded Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) to Neutral from Buy.

• Montgomery downgraded shares of Taleo Corp (NASDAQ: TLEO) to Hold from Buy.

• Credit Suisse downgraded AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) to Neutral from Outperform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Royal Dutch Shell(NYSE:RDS) volatility flat as BP is mentioned as M&A partner. RDS is recently up .56 to $83.95. The Daily Mail is reporting that BP and RDS are in merger talks. RDS over all option implied volatility of 17 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Dendreon(NASDAQ:DNDN) implied volatility & volume at low end of range last two days. DNDN, a biotechnology company focused on discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics to fight cancer, is recently trading up .73 to $7.99. DNDN over all option implied volatility of 57 is below its 26-week average of 111 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.