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Retail job cuts: why Sears (SHLD) has to be next

Macy's (NYSE: M) just cut 7,000 jobs, 4% of its workforce. Almost all retailers are suffering, so the question is which chain will have the next large round of lay-offs.

Bet on Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD). Its K-Mart and Sears stores have been doing poorly. If Macy's has to let people go, Sears has to be facing similar trouble.

According to the AP, Sears same-store sales fell 7.3% in December. On that basis, sales in Sears U.S. stores dropped almost 13%. That kind of erosion is just not sustainable. Not with the same cost structure Sears had last year. If anything, retail sales will be worse in the first part of this year now that the holidays are over.

Continue reading Retail job cuts: why Sears (SHLD) has to be next

Coupon clippers of the world unite against Macy's

Macy's NYSE:M logoYou don't mess with a shopper's coupons -- Macy's (NYSE: M) has learned that lesson the hard way.

According to The New York Times, "For years, the department stores that Macy's acquired ... had relied on 15- and 20-percent-off coupons to alert people, like a Pavlovian bell, that it was time to shop. As part of its reinvention, Macy's tried to wean shoppers off them. But the tactic backfired. With fewer coupons to clip, thousands of people from Washington to Los Angeles turned their backs on Macy's."

Now Macy's is jumping back on the coupon bandwagon, and is pledging that there will be plenty for clippers to cut this holiday season.

It's puzzling why Macy's decided to move away from coupons in the first place. It seems like an ingenious way to dole out savings to consumers: non price-savvy shoppers won't clip the coupons and therefore won't get the savings. This way, the store avoids giving discounts to a lot of people who would have purchased the clothing without them in the first place.

Historically, corporate America has always had trouble weaning shoppers off coupons. Macy's is just the latest in a long history of companies that have failed at it. Few smart shoppers are probably surprised that the efforts have failed, and now Macy's will allow our love of coupons to continue.

Macy's (M) hooks up with Trump, Martha, and others

After reporting a disappointing decline in second-quarter earnings and sales last week, Macy's (NYSE: M) is pulling out the big guns. Donald Trump and Martha Stewart are just two among a coterie of celebrities being employed in the department-store company's $100 million advertising blitz.

New television spots for Macy's - one of which will debut on September's Emmy-Award broadcast - will also feature R&B singer Usher, Tim Gunn from Project Runway, chef Emeril Lagasse, and hip-hop mogul Sean "Puff Daddy" "P. Diddy" "Diddy" Combs.

Also on the roster as a celebrity endorser for the Cincinnati-based retailer is Jessica Simpson. Seems like a bit of a slap in the face to hometown boy (and erstwhile Simpson paramour) Nick Lachey.

Stewart, figurehead of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (NYSE: MSO), also is working with Macy's on an exclusive line of Stewart-branded home products, which will launch this fall only in Macy's stores.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

KKR shopping at Macy's

According to Woman's Wear Daily, Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts is partnering with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) to make a $24 billion offer for struggling retailer Macy's Inc (NYSE:M). The former Federated Department Stores, which adopted the better-known Macy's brand in 2005, has 825 stores and $27 billion in annual sales.

KKR is said to be offering $52 a share for the stock, which has been creeping up on rumors of such a deal, to its current $43.12. The Wall Street Journal is among those openly speculating that one driving force behind this deal is KKR's plans to offer an IPO later this year. However, such a deal only beautifies their offering if the market buys into the value of Macy's, which has struggled to establish consistent earnings since leaving bankruptcy in 1992.

WWD interviewed market analysts who voiced skepticism that the Macy's current management would welcome this offer. Given current concerns that private equity money could dry up as lenders tighten up in the aftermath of the housing collapse, I suspect Macy's stockholders won't be prone to wait for another suitor.

Is it a good deal for KKR? Given Macy's portfolio of prime real estate and legendary brand, this deal seems like one with very moderate risk and substantial potential reward.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 08:48 AM

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