Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Goldman Sachs removedApple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) from its conviction buy list. I've jested in the past that this list tends to have little conviction itself. At any rate, I'm still in a holding pattern on AAPL as it moves closer to levels that I really find attractive -- $125 and lower.
Though the stock made a nice turn off lows, AAPL appears to be assessing whether the Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) news will have a material spillover effect. Some of DELL's weakness is due to AAPL so we will have to see how much macro driven issues affect AAPL's peak season growth. Piper noted that AAPL is in need of a Mac refresh -- this is true and is in the works.
Meanwhile, T-Mobile (NYSE: DT) has announced it will start selling Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android-based phones. Time will tell if this hits the iPhone's growth, but I don't suspect it will.
"The ongoing renaissance of Eastern Europe is generating tremendous economic activity, boosting profits for companies across the continent," says Nick Lanyi in High Yield International.
He explains, "As Europe's largest economy, Germany is well positioned to continue benefiting from this growth." And within Germany, his current top pick is Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT), which offers a dividend yield of 6.7%.
"German stocks are currently available at historically low valuations. The country's DAX Index is trading at only about 12 times 2008 earnings estimates, with an average dividend yield of 3.4%.
"One of the world's largest telecommunications companies, Deutsche Telekom is much more than the descendant of Germany's monopoly local phone utility. It generates more than half its revenue from outside Germany -- from diversified operations across Europe and in the U.S.
"Outside of Germany, DT garners more growth from its wireless operations in Eastern Europe, the U.K. and the U.S. Most of these operate under the well-known T-Mobile brand. Overall, worldwide wireless activities account for about 55% of the company's revenue.
But when Sprint reports its first-quarter results tomorrow, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect the company to report earnings of a mere penny per share, down from the same period in 2007 when it earned 18 cents per share, and from the previous quarter's 21 cents per share. The company has beat quarterly estimates over the past year -- by 17.3% in the fourth quarter -- and it certainly has plenty of room to best analysts' low expectations for this past quarter.
Overland Park, Kansas-based Sprint Nextel operates a nationwide digital wireless network with more than 50 million subscribers. In the past year, Sprint's revenues were $40.1 billion. The company's long-term EPS growth forecast is 8.22%, which is less than the 8.67% of rival Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts continues to be to hold Sprint.
Shares closed Friday at $9.39, up from a 52-week low of $5.48 in March, but still well off the 52-week high of 23.42 last June.
For news that could influence these results, see BloggingStocks' Sprint coverage.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the exchange rate plus massive undervaluations make the great brands prime targets.
There's always been a groupthink in Europe about currencies. The companies that want to buy American companies have, at times, seemed to care more about the currency, or at least not buying a company in a country whose currency is in decline, than they care about the actual target.
That's what it looks like now that a large German company and now a large Italian company have decided to start splurging. It is no coincidence that Deutsche Tel (NYSE: DT) (Cramer's Take) and Finmeccanica are exploring Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take) and DRS (NYSE: DRS) (Cramer's Take). These companies are selling for something like 40% off for those bearing euros, and neither potential acquirer has debt problems or subprime issues, so the deals don't have big borrowing problems.
That's what I am thinking about when I see the better-than-expected figures today from Unilever (NYSE: UL) (Cramer's Take) and the other day from Nestle. These companies are part of that same groupthink. They are looking, no doubt, at a Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take) and thinking, "Wait, that's about a $10 billion company that's a global leader."
Maybe it was tightening bank standards, maybe it was strong business orders for the services sector. Or, maybe it was a big hike in oil prices back to the $120 mark. Stocks took it on the chin today. Below are the unofficial closes for the major US index readings:
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) traded much lower, bringing Wall Street down after Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) withdrew its $43.7 billion bid to acquire Yahoo Saturday. Shares fell 15% to $24.37.
Shares of Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) are rising on a Wall Street Journal (subscription required) report that Deutsche Telekom AG (NYSE: DT) is poised to make a bid for the wireless telecommunication company. If the report is accurate, Sprint's long suffering shareholders should do as the Steve Miller Band song suggests "take the money and run" because the deal may not happen.
For Sprint, though, this may be its only hope. Sprint shares have slumped almost 40% this year as the Overland Park Kansas-based company tried in vain to gain marketshare against larger rivals including Verizon and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T). The commercials starring the company's affable CEO Daniel Hesse haven't helped much either. Remember when Hesse was named CEO last December, board member Irvine O. Hockaday Jr. remarked that Hesse "has the board's full support to take decisive actions necessary to improve our performance."
But as Bloomberg News points out, analysts argue that integrating the Deutsche Telekom and Sprint Nextel networks wouldn't be easy. Moreover, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security may not look kindly on a foreign company taking over a U.S. telecom provider for national security reasons, the news service notes.
Even so, the arguments for the merger are so compelling that it might be worth the risk.
S closed at $7.89 Friday. S is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on May 12.
S option volume was heavy on May 2, with 42,682 contracts trading. S May option implied volatility went out at 84 on May 2, June at 61. S average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 62 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
There are probably some hurdles to Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT), the German phone giant, buying Sprint (NYSE: S), but the deal does make sense for a number of reasons. Reuters writes that Der Spiegel, one of Germany's most prominent publications, reported that "Deutsche Telekom is looking at a possible purchase of U.S. wireless company Sprint Nextel."
DT has a very significant problem in the U.S., and it is one that the company cannot overcome on its own. The firm's U.S. wireless venture, T-Mobile, runs a distant fourth among carriers in the U.S. The two leaders, AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Wireless seem to have the top spots cemented and are adding new customers every quarter. Sprint is in third place with about 50 million subscribers to over 60 million served by each of the two leaders.
Sprint has deep troubles of its own. It has run into subscriber retention issues since the NexTel merger. The company's financial position is weak. Its share price is under $8. Less than two years ago, it was almost $23. Sprint's plan to build a nationwide 4G network using WiMax is all but dead. The company simply does not have the financing to complete it.
T-Mobile has nearly 28 million subscribers. Combined with Sprint, it would take the lead in U.S. wireless customers with about 78 million. Integrating the wireless platforms of the two companies would be extremely difficult. But, the alternative is being the fourth horse in a three-horse race.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that executives at Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) met with Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) executives earlier this week to discuss Microsoft's takeover offer for the company, marking a breakthrough in communication between the two companies.
HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE: HBC) wants to expand its operations in sub-Saharan Africa, the Financial Times reported, as the region becomes increasingly significant for the bank's Asian and Indian clients.
OTHER PAPERS:
Due to its plunging stock price and the expected departure of millions of subscribers this year, sources are speculating about the fate of Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S). While analysts believe a company such as Deutsche Telekom AG (NYSE: DT) may look to buy Sprint, the Associated Press reported that neither Sprint nor its potential suitors are commenting.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Northrop Grumman, Groupe Danone and MercadoLibre were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to Outperform from Perform after the Pentagon selected the company over Boeing (NYSE: BA) for the newly designated KC-45A Aerial Refueling Tanker with a potential value of $35B.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Groupe Danone (OTC: GDNNY) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the sell-off on commodity cost concerns is overdone.
MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, as they believe MELI's long-term thesis is more compelling now vs. six months ago and notes favorable reaction to Mercado Pago v2.0.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pfizer, Dell, Quest Diagnostics, and Societe Generale were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to Equal Weight from Underweight on valuation.
Friedman Billings raised Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) to Outperform from Market Perform, citing expectations for improved margins next quarter, and valuation.
Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse, which cited valuation.
Lehman upgraded shares of Societe Generale (OTC: SCGLY) to Overweight from Underweight to reflect a potential takeover by BNP Paribas and limited downside.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Bayer (OTC: BAYRY) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight by Lehman.
Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was upgraded to Hold from Sell by Citigroup.
Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) was raised to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank.
UBS raised Entergy (NYSE: ETR) to Buy from Neutral.
In what may be a sign of interest from large media companies looking to delve into the "content delivery space," the Wall Street Journal reported that EdgeCast Networks is set to announce it has raised up to $6M from Steamboat Ventures, The Walt Disney Company's (NYSE: DIS) venture-capital arm.
Barron's "The Trader" section says they'd stay away from Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), even though the Bush administration's subprime-mortgage freeze program caused the stock to rebound some. Barron's speculates that Fannie should take an earnings hit in the range of $6.4B to $14B.
According to the Financial Times Deutschland, Deutsche Telekom AG's (NYSE: DT) T-Mobile is selling less than 700 of Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhones a day; this compares to the 10,000 iPhones the unit sold on a daily basis during Christmas.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dick's Sporting, Ericsson and Deutsche Telekom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Dick's Sporting (NYSE: DKS) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, margin expansion and increased visibility.
Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) was raised to Buy from Hold at WestLB on valuation following yesterday's sell-off. The firm feels investors need to look beyond 2008.
Lehman upgraded shares of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) to Equal Weight from Underweight as they believe earnings momentum will be seen in the near-term.
A ruling in Vodafone Group Plc's (NYSE: VOD) favor may cause Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) to rethink its business model for the iPhone device. The injunction against Deutsche Telekom AG (NYSE: DT)'s T-Mobile unit may force Apple to "unlock" its iPhones, the UK Times reported.
Struggling airline UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), along with its unit United Airlines, is struggling, but finding a carrier willing to merge may be a problem, BusinessWeek speculated.
Apple's PR machine does not know how to do anything small, so it is expected that the company will say that it will "hand a UK sale deal to Spanish Telefonica's O2 UK unit, a German deal to Deutsche Telekom's (NYSE:DT) T-Mobile and a French deal to France Telecom's (NYSE: FTE) Orange."
With the iPhone's price already dropped, sales in Europe can be expected to be strong.
The product, however, has at least two problems as it moves overseas. One is that the phone is currently a 2.5G product while Europe cellular users are, in many cases, already on 3G networks. Apple would need a short time table to get a next-generation product to market.
The other issue with the iPhone is that technology pirates have figured out how to "unlock" the device so that it can work on more than one cellular network. It is too early to say whether this will affect the exclusivity that Apple is seeking from network partners, but it at least raises the question of how easy it will be to force consumers to stay with one provider.
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
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