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Options update 12-31-07: eBay February volatility elevated into EPS & Outlook

eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) closed at $33.78 Friday.

Deutsche Banc has a Sell rating on EBAY. According to Deutsche Banc says, the declining US listings, deteriorating demand trends and potential increased investments in 2008, could place significant pressure on profits in 2008.

Thedeal.com says: "One way or another, it appears CEO Meg Whitman is on the way out." Whitman joined EBAY in 1998. Years ago Whitman's said she would leave EBAY after eight to ten years.

EBAY is expected to report EPS on January 23rd.

EBAY January option implied volatility is at 33, February is at 44. EBAY average volatility over the last 26-weeks is 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger EPS risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Is AOL CEO Jon Miller full of it? And should we worry if he is?

After listening to AOL's Jonathan Miller speak at Deutsche Bank's Media and Telecommunications conference, Cynthia Brumfeld of IP Democracy had some issues. Namely, that Miller was "confusing" and "vague," speaking in "buzz phrases, stream of consciousness, sentence fragments and generalities" and saying a whole lot of nothing. Her bottom-line question: "Is all this vague-talk a sign of real trouble at the online unit?"

I know how she feels -- I hate nothing more than "vague-talk" and frequently wish someone would just answer the damn question. I've had questions not-answered by any number of famous and successful CEOs, from Jeffrey Bezos to the great Meg Whitman herself, and have been frustrated listening to analyst conference call after press day after investor meeting and wondering, when is someone going to answer the question that was asked?

I don't think non-answers are a sign of trouble. The buzzwords: more worrisome. Buzzwords, in my opinion, are always a sign of desperation. I've seen smart people turn into blathering fountains of buzz-speak (notably, a Wharton professor whose catch-phrase "in this space" would tend toward the ridiculous when he wasn't at the top of his game) when they were unprepared to talk about an issue. Heck, I've done it myself.

Cynthia: don't worry about the glibness. It's the buzz you should be concerned about. Either Miller was just tired (hey, we all get that way) and ill-prepared, or there really is a problem. I'll leave the opinions on which is the truth, to you all.

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 03:11 AM

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