Continue reading Deutsche's Ackermann says Germany offers banks a 'comparative advantage'

Deutsche's Ackermann says Germany offers banks a 'comparative advantage' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Dec 2009 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Forget about running out of oil. A Deutsche Bank analyst wrote: "The world will never run out of oil."

You are probably wondering why the analyst was able to make this prediction. The foremost reason is that we are becoming more efficient. This should keep prices in check at about $65.00 per barrel, down from this year's $80.00 per barrel.

The next question is how do you know that the world is becoming more efficient. The Energy Information Administration uses a metric called: "energy intensity." Energy intensity measures the amount of oil used in relation to the size of the economy.

Continue reading Will we ever run out of oil?

Will we ever run out of oil? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) closed at $64.23. DB September option implied volatility is at 49, October is at 51; below its 26-week average of 66, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) closed at $47.94. CS October option implied volatility of 47 is below its 26-week average of 62 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Switzerland's biggest bank, closed at $17.02. UBS September option implied volatility is at 54, October is at 56; below its 26-week average of 70, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: European money center's volatility low originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Sep 2009 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Transportation company DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) started the session on a positive note this morning after announcing a new waiver agreement with Deutsche Bank.

DRYS, which is struggling under the weight of a hefty debt burden, said it has reached a pact with Deutsche Bank regarding the waiver terms for a credit facility worth $1.125 billion. The facility covers two drillships that are currently under construction.

"We are delivering the waivers as promised and we hope to conclude discussions with the rest of the lenders in the near future," stated CEO George Economou.

Continue reading Volatile DryShips shares rally on new debt agreement

Volatile DryShips shares rally on new debt agreement originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 May 2009 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: An IPO, Banks & Tech, all killing the bears (JPM, RST, SBUX, LUV, RF)

Closing Bell: An IPO, Banks & Tech, all killing the bears (JPM, RST, SBUX, LUV, RF) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Deutsche Banks published a study that shows the gloomy reality that the credit markets are predicting. They used the iBoxx index of investment grade corporate bonds and found that default rates in Europe are priced at 38%, in the US at 40% and at 51% in the UK. All of these readings are worse than in the Depression.

Continue reading Why are credit markets forecasting absolute disaster?

Why are credit markets forecasting absolute disaster? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) is one of those stocks that you just want to own but are not sure that you should own. How many times have you heard that the Wii is selling like hotcakes and that the company is beating the heck out of Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360?

You've heard it a lot. Plus, you may even know how fun the Wii is from personal experience. Maybe you own one and are right now trying to finish the last level of Wario Land: Shake It!. And even if you don't own one, chances are one of your friends does.

Continue reading Is Nintendo overvalued?

Is Nintendo overvalued? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Mar 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: When traders need lithium; C, GE, HPQ, GRMN, YHOO

Closing Bell: When traders need lithium; C, GE, HPQ, GRMN, YHOO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Feb 2009 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Well, according to a report today in the Wall Street Journal, GGP's deadline to renegotiate a $900 million loan on two luxury malls in Las Vegas came and went Thursday with no resolution. The mall mogul is still in talks with its lenders to negotiate a new deal -- but it's now haggling outside the confines of its forbearance agreement, which means those lenders, led by Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), can demand payment at any time.

Continue reading Is General Growth Properties bankrupt yet?

Is General Growth Properties bankrupt yet? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Deutsche Bank (DB) Q4 loss drags on financial sector originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Jan 2009 14:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) warned of a loss of about 4.8 billion euros in Q4. DB is recently trading at $28.36 in pre-open trading, below its close of at $31.90. DB January option implied volatility of 91 is above its 26-week average of 71, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) closed at $25.20. CS option implied volatility of 87 is above its 26-week average of 72 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Switzerland's biggest bank, closed at $13.43. UBS February option implied volatility of 81 is near its 26-week average of 78, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) closed at $8.67. STD was cut to Sell from Neutral at UBS Warburg. STD overall option implied volatility of 63 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: Deutsche Bank volatility elevated at 91 into Q4 warning originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Jan 2009 08:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading 2008: When Wall Street scandals started to sound like a Dickens novel

2008: When Wall Street scandals started to sound like a Dickens novel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Jan 2009 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Deutsche Bank sues Donald Trump originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Dec 2008 09:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Thanks to what former Enron CEO, Jeff Skilling, called bad "optics", some top Wall Street executives announced that they're foregoing their normal seven figure bonuses. But I think I am being generous in estimating that those potentially symbolic gestures will only shave a few billion off the Wall Street bonus pool for 2008. We could still be paying $20 billion in bonuses this year.

How so? After buying $159 billion worth of preferred stock in 24 banks, I have not seen any evidence that the Treasury required the banks to lend it out. There is nothing stopping the banks from using the money for paying bonuses. And while the original estimate of 2008 bonuses was down 20% from 2007 -- to $26.6 billion -- I am thinking that eliminating executive bonuses could lead to at least a $6 billion lower figure -- particularly if this cut provides bank CEOs leverage to reduce the amount of bonuses paid to lower level people.

So far, top executives from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Deutsche Bank, and Barclays have said they will skip their bonuses for 2008. Ironically, the ethically challenged UBS has the most interesting idea -- starting in 2009, it will be able to claw back bonuses in the years after their award with a third paid immediately, while the remainder will be put into a participant's account and can be reduced if there is a loss at the division or the whole bank. I started proposing an escrow account along these lines in October 2007.

Continue reading Will our tax dollars pay $20 billion in Wall Street bonuses?

Will our tax dollars pay $20 billion in Wall Street bonuses? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Nov 2008 12:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Boxing on Wall Street: Wouldn't you love to watch traders get beaten?

Boxing on Wall Street: Wouldn't you love to watch traders get beaten? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Christoph Scherbaum, editor of the German edition of Personal Finance, who says German investors are cautious, but optimistic about their market.

Q. Christoph, some experts predict the beginning of a prolonged slowdown that will push consumer price inflation in Germany to as low as 2% next June. What do you think?

A. Consumer prices are not really a problem. August inflation was less than 4% and is estimated at 3% until year-end. The delayed effects of rising commodity prices will have a steeper decline. In addition, second-round effects through higher wage developments are now more visible. Therefore, the European Central Bank-despite poor economic data-will wait for a reassessment of its inflation target for 2010 until the second half of 2009

Q. To what extent do you think the US's financial worries are extending to German financial institutions?

A. It's a difficult question, but we have no big problem with our banks. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck recently stated: "Although this financial crisis undoubtedly is the biggest economic risk for the German economy, I think the potential impact on us-after inquiries and interviews with the Bundesbank president-to be limited". He also reaffirmed the intent of a balanced federal budget in 2011.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany

Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Sep 2008 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The New York Times reports that since we've had such a catastrophic run with home mortgages, it's time to watch the collapse of commercial ones. The same names surface when it comes to the collapse of our financial system -- in the case of commercial mortgages Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) ($25.1 billion), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) ($22.1 billion), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) ($40 billion in commercial mortgages and property), and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) ($19.1 billion) are among the biggest holders. They are also big names in Auction Rate Securities (ARS).

Why do people think that commercial real estate could be tanking? Here are four reasons:

• Declining property prices. The Times reports that the Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index has dropped 12% since its peak last October.
• Commercial mortgage write-downs. According to the Times, Morgan Stanley reported commercial mortgage write-downs of $400 million and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) said it would take at least $1 billion worth of such write-downs.
• Potential Riverton default. The Times reports that Riverton, a 1,230 unit Harlem development, was premised on the idea that developers could convert "lower-priced rentals to apartments priced closer to the higher market average." But the Times reports that Monday Fitch "issued a negative watch on part of the Riverton Apartments trust" since the developers had not made much progress -- threatening commercial mortgages that Citi and Deutsche Bank hold.

Continue reading Commercial mortgages: Next to collapse?

Commercial mortgages: Next to collapse? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 22 Aug 2008 10:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Now eight large brokerage firms have settled with Auction Rate Securities (ARS) investors. This afternoon Bloomberg News reports Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Deutsche Bank settled with state regulators. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced another prong of its settlement earlier in the day.

What are the terms of the settlement for the latest two? Bloomberg writes that "Goldman will buy back $1.5 billion of the securities and pay a $22.5 million fine. Deutsche Bank will redeem $1 billion of debt and was fined $15 million." In addition to the rogues gallery of big ARS issuers who have yet to settle, investigators are targeting medium-sized brokers -- Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW), Fidelity Investments and E*Trade Financial Corp. (NYSE: ETFC).

This leaves major ARS issuers lagging behind their peers. Here are three holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):

• Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) ($3.7 B)
• RBC Capital Markets ($1.2 B)
• Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) ($1.1 B)

What are they waiting for?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Goldman and Deutsche Bank join Auction Rate Securities settlement bandwagon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

BusinessWeek reports that Wall Street has its eye on a new pot of cash -- your pension. And it's a mighty big pot -- $2.3 trillion. But Wall Street is not looking at the entire pension industry, just a $500 billion portion known as "frozen plans" that are closed to new employees and whose benefits are capped. McKinsey forecasts that frozen plans will triple to a hefty $1.5 trillion by 2013.

As usual, Wall Street's plan to buy these frozen pensions will line its own pockets and it will help companies as well. For example, if Wall Street charged a 2% management fee, that alone would generate $30 billion in revenues by 2013 if it bought all the frozen plans, but that fee income is probably the tip of the iceberg.

Companies are eager to dump their frozen pension plans. Why? These limping plans weigh down corporate balance sheet and new accounting rules will require companies to mark the value of their pension assets to market each quarter. In a down market, that could wipe out a company's operating profits.

Continue reading Does John McCain want to help Wall Street wipe out your pension?

Does John McCain want to help Wall Street wipe out your pension? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 06 Aug 2008 09:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• People familiar with the issue said that European regulators are gearing up to file new antitrust charges against Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC). The charges, the Wall Street Journal reported, would allege Intel gave major European retailers an incentive not to sell computers that use Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) chips.

• The New York Times reported that News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) New York Post and The Daily News, owned by Mortimer Zuckerman, are exploring a print pact and have been in talks to find ways to combine some business functions of the papers, according to people briefed on the matter.
• According to sources, the San Francisco Business Times reported that Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM) may be planning more layoffs in September. It is unclear how many employees will be affected and from which departments.

• In an effort to preserve capital, data compiled by Bloomberg showed that troubled mortgage companies Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, may cut dividends after more than $11B in combined losses since last year.
• Three people familiar with the matter said that the SEC subpoenaed Wall Street investment banks including The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) in its hunt and crack down on suspected manipulation of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) shares. Bloomberg reported that two of the people said the SEC, which yesterday curtailed short selling in financial stocks, is looking for e-mails and trading records and is also examining whether securities firms have "adequate controls" to deal properly with misconduct.

Newspaper wrap-up: Wall Street firms subpoenaed by SEC originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Jul 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.