Continue reading Devon: Promising Energy Play

Devon: Promising Energy Play originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 18 Feb 2010 02:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

El Paso (EP) closed at $11.10. EP is expected to report Q4 EPS in late February. February option implied volatility is at 36, versus its 26-week average of 42. DVN options were active on January 19 with trading volume of 71,749 contracts, according to Track Data. Average daily volume in EP is 6,610 according to IVolatility.com.

Devon Energy (DVN) closed at $73.57. WTI Crude oil futures are recently down 0.83% to $77.35, according to Bloomberg. DVN is expected to report Q4 EPS on February 17. February option implied volatility of 33 is below its 26-week average of 37, according to Track Data.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: El Paso Calls Active; Shares Rally as Oil Trades Below $78 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Jan 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Back in July, as oil approached its zenith, I cautioned that the bubble in energy stocks was beginning to resemble previous bubbles, such as the ones that sent semiconductor stocks to the moon in 1999 and 2000, and homebuilding stocks in 2005.

At a time when others were buying anything associated with oil, I suggested that investors take profits instead.

In August I wrote about oil and gas exploration firm Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). The company had just announced quarterly results, which were ahead of estimates, and its shares soared that day to $91 per share.

I made the incredibly astute prediction that there were only two directions for the stock to go: up or down. Basically I stated that if your opinion was that oil demand will continue to outstrip supply, buying Devon made sense.

My own personal belief was that oil was trading at speculative levels, demand destruction would occur in short order with $4-per-gallon gasoline, we'd begin conserving and our massive investments in alternative energy would eventually result in supply outstripping demand.

Even without demand destruction fundamentals suggesting that the price per barrel of oil should have been well below $100, Devon was a stock to sell in my opinion. In fact, the article was titled "Avoid Devon Energy Like the Plague."

Fast forward to today. Oil collapsed beyond what I had even expected and Devon shares fell in parallel. At its lows, DVN hit $54 and change.

Continue reading Oil prices won't go down forever: Buy Devon Energy (DVN)

Oil prices won't go down forever: Buy Devon Energy (DVN) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Jan 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

John W. Nichols, who is the co-founder of Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), died recently. He was 93.

As should be no surprise, his life provides many lessons for budding entrepreneurs. Interestingly enough, his innovations were not necessarily about creating new products. Instead, he was an innovator of finance.

Nichols started his career as an accountant and audited the financials for oil companies. Leveraging this experience, he started an oil company in 1941. With sky-high income taxes, Nichols structured innovative financial vehicles to minimize the bite from Uncle Sam. For example, he was the first to register a public oil & gas drilling fund with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

And it was a hit -- he attracted large sums of capital from wealthy individuals (even Hollywood stars like Barbara Stanwick).

No doubt, Nichols biggest feat was the creation of Devon. He formed the venture in 1971 with the help of his son, a lawyer.

The financial innovation didn't stop as Nichols developed the so-called royalty fund, which became a standard in the oil industry.

It was also a big spur for growth. After all, Devon is today a $43 billion company.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

John Nichols showed the power of finance originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Aug 2008 11:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Devon at this price level is nearly divine

Devon at this price level is nearly divine originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 Jan 2008 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

To me, the most interesting part of this forecast is that an executive in the industry has no idea where the price will go. As the Times suggests, this is because the price is determined by traders and hedge funds. And these market participants view U.S. equities, housing, credit and currency markets as shaky. By contrast, they see oil and other commodities as a safe haven.

If the Times is correct, then the price of oil will be determined by the direction of U.S. equities, housing, and currency and whether these traders and hedge funds continue to see oil as a store of value. If you think that housing prices will rise in 2009; that the U.S. economy is in for robust growth and a balancing budget in 2009; and that peace will break out in the Middle East then those traders and hedge funds are likely to sell oil and buy dollars -- dropping the price to Richels' $55.

Otherwise, $150 here we come.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Devon securities.

Is oil headed to $150 or $55? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jan 2008 12:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Oklahoma turns 100 years old this year, and I wrote a bit about its business climate in my recent Investing in Oklahoma post. That post featured some growth companies based in Oklahoma: Arena Resources Inc. (NYSE: ARD), Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE: HP), Unit Corp. (NYSE: UNT), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), and the Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB).

Earlier this year, the Motley Fool also took at look at Oklahoma companies, and focused on some of the same energy sector companies that I did. Its search also included two non-energy companies as well: drive-in burger chain Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC) for its growth potential, and Tulsa-based Dollar Thrifty Automotive (NYSE: DTG).

Sonic recently announced 21 consecutive years of positive same-store sales performance, and reaffirmed its 33 cents earnings per share earnings expectations for the fourth quarter. For fiscal 2008, Sonic expects earnings growth of 15% to 17%. The consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is that Sonic is a buy. The share price was $23.40 at the close on Friday, up from a 52-week low of $20.02 in late July, not yet quite back to its 52-week high of $25.09 in May, but still up from its stumble at the end of August after an analyst's downgrade based on labor and dairy costs. That was before the announcement and reaffirmed expectations mentioned above. Also, Sonic made the Forbes list of 100 best mid cap stocks in America.

Continue reading Investing in Oklahoma: Sonic (SONC), Dollar Thrifty (DTG), OGE Energy (OGE)

Investing in Oklahoma: Sonic (SONC), Dollar Thrifty (DTG), OGE Energy (OGE) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 10:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN) is an energy company engaged in oil and gas exploration, production and property acquisitions. DVN is recently up $1.08 to $82.87 on unconfirmed and renewed takeover chatter. WTI Crude oil futures are up 1.89% to $81.79, according to Bloomberg. DVN call option volume of 11,277 contracts compares to put volume of 508 contracts. DVN October option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Gentex Corp. (NASDAQ: GNTX), a designer, developer, manufacturer and marketer of products employing electro-optic technology, is recently up 38 cents to $21.25 on unconfirmed buyout chatter. GNTX has a market cap of $3 billion with zero long term debt. Soleil said on September 7, "GNTX's cash hoard of $521 million or $3.63 per share can be used to pay dividends, repurchase shares, and reinvest in the business." GNTX October 22.5 calls have traded 37 times on transaction volume of 1,281 contracts above its open interest of 43 contracts. GNTX October option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: Devon Energy up on renewed buyout chatter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Sep 2007 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Bernstein upgraded Talisman Energy Inc (NYSE: TLM) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and potential exploration success in Vietnam and raised Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC), Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE: DVN) and EOG Resources Inc (NYSE: EOG) to Market Perform from Underperform on improving gas fundamentals.
• Bernstein also upgraded shares of BP PLC (NYSE: BP) and BG Group (NYSE: BRG) to Outperform from Market Perform.
• Check Point Software Technologies (NASDAQ: CHKP) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings, citing checks that indicate a strong product cycle for the company's beefed up VPN/firewall product portfolio.
• ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) was upgraded at Citigroup to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the recent correction provides a compelling entry point.

• Merrill Lynch upgraded shares of Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA), Alumina Ltd (NYSE: AWC) and Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX) to Buy from Neutral and shares of Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: PCU) to Neutral from Sell.
• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Tempur Pedic International (NYSE: TPX) to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• Infineon Technologies (NYSE: IFX) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst upgrades 9-5-07: BP, BRG, CHKP and VCLK originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Sep 2007 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.