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Cramer says buy Diageo, I say WAIT

Yesterday James Cramer went gaga about Diageo plc ADS (NYSE:DEO): His jubilance about this stock befitting his MAD MONEY antics, he gave many reasons why it has plenty of room to grow, even though it is up 30% since he made the "good call."

Diageo has been on my watch list for a couple of months and I considered it for one of my 2007 recommendations, but it did not make the cut. I looked at it again last night after perusing Jon Oggs report. Most of Cramer's discussion points are valid so I can only look at the fundamentals. I like this stock better at $70 than I do at $80 per share. And I liked it even more when Cramer bought it under $70. It has had a good run, but I would not buy it after the Cramer "pop"...in January, when the overall market is up, and the stock is at an all-time high, or close to it.

The price-to earnings ratio is only average at 16 to 17, but the price-to-sales ratio is too high for my taste at 4.71, especially when I am looking at other opportunities with lower P/E's and P/S's near 1.0. DEO with a price-to-book of 6.75 also looks expensive to me. On the positive side, the return on equity and invested capital are great and the dividend yield approaching 3% is stupendous.

The opportunities in China and India are everything Cramer says, but there is no rush. We have seen from the slow methodical starts other companies have made in these countries that there is time. A lot of time. These opportunities will last for decades and DEO does not have that many competitors with comparable resources. From my perspective it is worth waiting. There are better opportunities. Perhaps when Cramer stops talking about it and we drift into a calmer February, or the annual summer doldrums soften the market, Diageo will move up on my list.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.
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Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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DJIA-126.9710,337.43
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S&P 500-14.991,095.64

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 11:49 AM

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