
I subscribe to BusinessWeek (actually, it's one of the few printed publications I still subscribe to). One thing I can count on: Do the opposite of whatever's on the cover.
It's a can't-miss investment strategy.
After all, in 1979, the magazine had a cover story that read: "The Death of Equities." Basically, the article recommended putting your money into gold.
Another good one was a cover story in late 1997, which talked about Netscape killing Microsoft. Yea, right.
OK, I checked my mailbox today and what did I see? The front cover of BusinessWeek says: "How This Kid Made $60 Million in 18 Months."
The kid is Kevin Rose, the founder of the very popular site, Digg. Digg is based on the concept of citizen journalism, in which users vote on stories – and through a Darwinian process, only the most popular get visibility. Yes, it's a Web2.0 play.
Several months ago, I met with the CEO of Digg and we had a good talk about tech startups, valuations and so on. From what I can tell, Digg is a pretty tight ship.
But, for every Digg, I see too many Digg-wannabees. Basically, there are too many bad companies. And these companies are getting millions from VCs.
And, with the cover story on BusinessWeek (implying you too can "strike it rich"), expect there to be a flood of money into consumer Internet plays.
The problem: competition will weigh down on the good companies.
Something else: to have real valuations, there needs to be a healthy mergers & acquisitions (M&A) environment, as well as IPO market.
In the consumer Internet M&A market, there have not been many big deals (although, there are some, like the $102 million for XFire). Perhaps, the problem is that mega-dollar deals, such as eBay's purchase of Skype, are not panning out. Even MySpace is having challenges monetizing its enormous traffic.
True, there are rumors of mega offers for companies like FaceBook and YouTube. But, these are still just offers.
As for IPOs, it has been awful. Traffic.com, for example, is down 57%. Or look at Vonage, which over the past few months has plunged from $17 to $6.91.
In other words, these new-fangled companies might have to do what Google and Yahoo have done; that is, build business models that generate huge amounts of cash.
So, thank you BusinessWeek. Looks like another great call.
Also, by the way, here's my video of the CEO of Digg: